z Test for a Mean

This is used when is known, and the t test is used

when is unknown.
Many hypotheses are tested using a statistical test
based on the following general formula:

The observed value is the statistic (such as the

mean) that is computed from the sample data. The
expected value is the parameter (such as the mean) that
you would expect to obtain if the null hypothesis were true
—in other words, the hypothesized value. The
denominator is the standard error of the statistic being
tested (in this case, the standard error of the mean).
 For the z test, the observed value is the value of the
sample mean. The expected value is the value of the
population mean, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.
The denominator is the standard error of the mean.
Five steps for solving hypothesis-testing problems:

Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

Step 2 Find the critical value(s).
Step 3 Compute the test value.
Step 4 Make the decision to reject or not reject the
null hypothesis.
Step 5 Summarize the results.
Example 3. Professors’ Salaries

A researcher reports that the average salary of assistant

professors is more than $42,000. A sample of 30 assistant
professors has a mean salary of $43,260. At 0.05, test the
claim that assistant professors earn more than $42,000 per
year. The standard deviation of the population is $5230.

Solution

Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

and (claim)
Step 2 Find the critical value. Since 0.05 and the test is a
right-tailed test, the critical value is z = +1.65.
Step 3 Compute the test value.
Step 4 Make the decision. Since the test value, +1.32, is less
than the critical value, +1.65, and is not in the critical
region, the decision is to not reject the null hypothesis. This
test is summarized in Figure 13.

Figure 13. Summary of the z Test of Example 3

Step 5 Summarize the results. There is not enough evidence

to support the claim that assistant professors earn more on
average than $42,000 per year.
Comment:
Even though in Example 3 the sample mean of
$43,260 is higher than the hypothesized population mean
of $42,000, it is not significantly higher. Hence, the
difference may be due to chance. When the null hypothesis
is not rejected, there is still a probability of a type II error,
i.e., of not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false
Also note that when the null hypothesis is not
rejected, it cannot be accepted as true. There is merely not
enough evidence to say that it is false. This guideline may
sound a little confusing, but the situation is analogous to a
jury trial. The verdict is either guilty or not guilty and is
based on the evidence presented. If a person is judged not
guilty, it does not mean that the person is proved innocent;
it only means that there was not enough evidence to reach
Example 4 Costs of Men’s Athletic Shoes
A researcher claims that the average cost of men’s
athletic shoes is less than $80. He selects a random sample
of 36 pairs of shoes from a catalog and finds the following
costs (in dollars). (The costs have been rounded to the
nearest dollar.) Is there enough evidence to support the
researcher’s claim at a 0.10? Assume 19.2.

60 70 75 55 80 55
50 40 80 70 50 95
120 90 75 85 80 60
110 65 80 85 85 45
75 60 90 90 60 95
110 85 45 90 70 70
Solution
Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.
and (claim)
Step 2 Find the critical value. Since 0.10 and the test is a
left-tailed test, the critical value is z = -1.28.
Step 3 Compute the test value. Since the exercise gives raw
data, it is necessary to find the mean of the data.
75.0 and 19.2. Substitute in the formula

Step 4 Make the decision.

Since the test value, -1.56, falls in the critical region,
the decision is to reject the null hypothesis. See
Figure 14.
 Figure 14. Critical and Test Values for Example 4

Step 5 Summarize the results.

There is enough evidence to support the claim that
the average cost of men’s athletic shoes is less than
$80.
Comment:
In Example 4, the difference is said to be
significant. However, when the null hypothesis is rejected,
there is always a chance of a type I error. In this case, the
probability of a type I error is at most 0.10, or 10%.
Example 5 Cost of Rehabilitation

The Medical Rehabilitation Education Foundation

reports that the average cost of rehabilitation for stroke
victims is $24,672. To see if the average cost of
rehabilitation is different at a particular hospital, a
researcher selects a random sample of 35 stroke victims at
the hospital and finds that the average cost of their
rehabilitation is $25,226. The standard deviation of the
population is $3251. At 0.01 , can it be concluded that the
average cost of stroke rehabilitation at a particular hospital
is different from $24,672?
Solution

Step 1 State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

and (claim)
Step 2 Find the critical values. Since 0.01 and the test is a
two-tailed test, the critical values are +2.58 and
-2.58.
Step 3 Compute the test value.

Step 4 Make the decision.

Do not reject the null hypothesis, since the test value
falls in the noncritical region, as shown in Figure 15.
 Figure 15. Critical and Test Values for Example 5

Step 5 Summarize the results.

There is not enough evidence to support the claim
that the average cost of rehabilitation at the
particular hospital is different from $24,672.
Figure 16 Outcomes of a Hypothesis-Testing Situation
 When is unknown, the t test must be used. (The t test
will be explained later.)
First, the claim can be either the null or alternative
hypothesis, and one should identify which it is. Second,
after the study is completed, the null hypothesis is either
rejected or not rejected. From these two facts, the decision
can be identified in the appropriate block of Figure 16.
For example, suppose a researcher claims that the
mean weight of an adult animal of a particular species is 42
pounds. In this case, the claim would be the null hypothesis,,
since the researcher is asserting that the parameter is a
specific value. If the null hypothesis is rejected, the
conclusion would be that there is enough evidence to reject
the claim that the mean weight of the adult animal is 42
pounds. See Figure 17(a).
 On the other hand, suppose the researcher claims
that the mean weight of the adult animals is not 42 pounds.
The claim would be the alternative hypothesis Furthermore,
suppose that the null hypothesis is not rejected. The
conclusion, then, would be that there is not enough
evidence to support the claim that the mean weight of the
adult animals is not 42 pounds. See Figure 17(b).
 Figure 17 Outcomes of a Hypothesis-
Testing Situation for Two Specific Cases
 Again, remember that nothing is being proved true
or false. The statistician is only stating that there is or is
not enough evidence to say that a claim is probably true
or false. As noted previously, the only way to prove
something would be to use the entire population under
study, and usually this cannot be done, especially when
the population is large.
P-Value Method for Hypothesis Testing

Statisticians usually test hypotheses at the common a

levels of 0.05 or 0.01 and sometimes at 0.10. Recall that the
choice of the level depends on the seriousness of the type I
error. Besides listing an a value, many computer statistical
packages give a P-value for hypothesis tests.

The P-value (or probability value) is the probability of

getting a sample statistic (such as the mean) or a more
extreme sample statistic in the direction of the alternative
hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true.
 The P-value is the actual area under the standard
normal distribution curve (or other curve, depending on
what statistical test is being used) representing the
probability of a particular sample statistic or a more
extreme sample statistic occurring if the null hypothesis is
true.
For example, suppose that an alternative hypothesis
is and the mean of a sample is. If the computer printed a
P-value of 0.0356 for a statistical test, then the probability
of getting a sample mean of 52 or greater is 0.0356 if the
true population mean is 50 (for the given sample size and
standard deviation).
 The relationship between the P-value and the value
can be explained in this manner:

For P= 0.0356, the null hypothesis would be

rejected at but not at. See Figure 18.

Figure 18 Comparison of Values and P-Values

 When the hypothesis test is two-tailed, the area in
one tail must be doubled. For a two-tailed test, if is 0.05
and the area in one tail is 0.0356, the P-value will be
2(0.0356) = 0.0712. That is, the null hypothesis should not
be rejected at, since 0.0712 is greater than 0.05. In
summary, if the P-value is less than , reject the null
hypothesis. If the P-value is greater than , do not reject
the null hypothesis.
The P-values for the z test can be found by using
Table E. First find the area under the standard normal
distribution curve corresponding to the z test value. For a
left-tailed test, use the area given in the table; for a right-
tailed test, use 1.0000 minus the area given in the table.
To get the P-value for a two-tailed test, double the area
you found in the tail. This procedure is shown in step 3 of
Examples 6 and 7 .
 The P-value method for testing hypotheses differs
from the traditional method somewhat. The steps for the P-
value method are summarized next.
Example 6 Cost of College Tuition

A researcher wishes to test the claim that the average

cost of tuition and fees at a four year public college is
greater than $5700. She selects a random sample of 36
four-year public colleges and finds the mean to be
$5950. The population standard deviation is $659. Is
there evidence to support the claim at ? Use the P-value
method.
Example 7 Wind Speed
A researcher claims that the average wind speed in a
certain city is 8 miles per hour. A sample of 32 days has an
average wind speed of 8.2 miles per hour. The standard
deviation of the population is 0.6 mile per hour. At , is there
enough evidence to reject the claim? Use the P-value
method.
 In Examples 6 and 7, the P-value and the value were
shown on a normal distribution curve to illustrate the
relationship between the two values; however, it is not
necessary to draw the normal distribution curve to make
the decision whether to reject the null hypothesis. You can
use the following rule:
Decision Rule When Using a P-Value
If P-value , reject the null hypothesis.
If P-value , do not reject the null hypothesis.

In Example 6, P-value = 0.0113 and . Since P-value ,

the null hypothesis was rejected. In Example 7, P-value =
0.0588 and . Since P-value , the null hypothesis was not
rejected.
 A clear distinction between the value and the P-value
should be made.
The value is chosen by the researcher before the
statistical test is conducted. The P-value is computed after
the sample mean has been found.
Excel ----Hypothesis Test for the Mean: z Test
Excel does not have a procedure to conduct a
hypothesis test for the mean. However, you may conduct
the test of the mean by using the MegaStat Add-in.

Example This example relates to Example 4. At the 10%

significance level, test the claim that . The MegaStat z test
uses the P-value method. Therefore, it is not necessary to
enter a significance level.

1. Enter the data into column A of a new worksheet.

2. From the toolbar, select Add-Ins, MegaStat>Hypothesis
Tests>Mean vs.Hypothesized Value.
3. Select data input and type A1:A36 as the Input Range.
4. Type 80 for the Hypothesized mean and select the “less
than” Alternative.
5. Select z test and click [OK].

The result of the procedure is shown next.

Hypothesis Test: Mean vs. Hypothesized Value
80.000 Hypothesized value
75.000 Mean data
19.161 Standard deviation
3.193 Standard error
36 n
-1.57 z
0.0587 P-value (one-tailed, lower)
Applying the Concepts
Car Thefts
You recently received a job with a company that
manufactures an automobile antitheft device. To conduct an
advertising campaign for the product, you need to make a claim
about the number of automobile thefts per year. Since the
population of various cities in the United States varies, you decide to
use rates per 10,000 people. (The rates are based on the number of
people living in the cities.) Your boss said that last year the theft rate
per 10,000 people was 44 vehicles. You want to see if it has changed.
The following are rates per 10,000 people for 36 randomly selected
locations in the United States.
55 42 125 62 134 73
39 69 23 94 73 24
51 55 26 66 41 67
15 53 56 91 20 78
70 25 62 115 17 36
58 56 33 75 20 16
Using this information, answer these questions.
1. What hypotheses would you use?
2. Is the sample considered small or large?
3. What assumption must be met before the hypothesis test
can be conducted?
4. Which probability distribution would you use?
5. Would you select a one- or two-tailed test? Why?
6. What critical value(s) would you use?
7. Conduct a hypothesis test. Use .
8. What is your decision?
9. What is your conclusion?
10. Write a brief statement summarizing your conclusion.
11. If you lived in a city whose population was about
50,000, how many automobile thefts per year would you
expect to occur?
Problems:

I. Perform each of the following steps.

a. State the hypotheses and identify the claim
b. Find the critical value(s)
c. Compute the test value
d. Make the decision
e. Summarize the results.

II. Perform each of the following steps.

a. State the hypotheses and identify the claim
b. Compute the test value
c. Compute the p-value
d. Make the decision
e. Summarize the results.
1. Walking with a Pedometer An increase in walking has
been shown to contribute to a healthier life-style. A
sedentary American takes an average of 5000 steps per
day (and 65% of Americans are overweight). A group of
health-conscious employees of a large health care
system volunteered to wear pedometers for a month to
record their steps. It was found that a random sample of
40 walkers took an average of 5430 steps per day, and
the population standard deviation is 600 steps. At 0.05
can it be concluded that they walked more than the
mean number of 5000 steps per day?
2. Revenue of Large Businesses A researcher estimates that
the average revenue of the largest businesses in the United
States is greater than $24 billion. A sample of 50 companies
is selected, and the revenues (in billions of dollars) are
shown. At 0.05, is there enough evidence to support the
researcher’s claim? 28.7.
178 122 91 44 35 31 30 19 19 19
61 56 46 20 32 24 16 15 15 19
30 28 28 20 27 25 25 18 14 15
29 16 16 19 15 24 23 17 17 22
41 38 36 15 25 22 21 20 17 20