Chapter 4

Probability and counting rules

Outline:
St 4-1 Sample spaces and probability
ati 4-2 Rules of probability
sti 4-3 Counting rules
cs 4-4 probability and counting rules
(
S
ci
en
ce
)
Objectives:
• Determine Sample Spaces and find the probability of an event using
classical probability.
• Find the probability of an event using empirical probability.
• Compute and interpret probabilities using the classical method
• Understand subject probabilities
• Understand probability as a numerical measure of the likelihood of
occurrence.
• Know how to use the laws that are available for computing the
probabilities of events
• Find the probability of compound events using the addition rules.
• Find the probability of compound events using the multiplication
rules.
• Find the conditional probability of an event.

Statistics ( Science ) 2
Introduction:
 The emphasis in Chapters 2, 3 is on descriptive statistics.
In those chapters we described methods used to collect,
organize, and present data, as well as measures of central
location, dispersion, and skewness used to summarize data.
A second facet of statistics deals with computing the chance
that something will occur in the future. This facet of statistics
is called inferential statistics.
 An inference is a generalization about a population based
on information obtained from a sample. Probability plays a
key role in inferential statistics. It is used to measure the
reasonableness that a particular sample could have come
from a particular population.

Statistics ( Science ) 3
Basic terminology of Probability
A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to one and only one
result of well-defined results called outcomes. ( Flip a coin 5 times, roll a die)
 An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

A trial means flip a coin once; when a coin is tossed, there are two possible
outcomes: head or tail; in a roll of a single die, there are six possible outcomes:
1,2,3,4,5,6.
 A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Experiment: Toss two coins; Sample space: HH, HT, TH, TT

Experiment = Toss a fair coin 5 times, observe the sequence of heads and tails.
Sample space ={HHHHH, HHHHT, HHHTH, HHHTT, HHTHH, HHTHT,
HHTTH, HHTTT, ….
 An event consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.
 A simple event or elementary event consists of one outcome .
 A compound event contains more than one outcome

Example: Toss a fair die. The elementary events are 1,2,3,4,5 and 6.
The events “Even” = {2,4,6}, “Odd” = {1,3,5} are examples of compound events.
Statistics ( Science ) 4
Example of a sample space
Write all possible ordering ( sample space) of the children according
to their gender and birth ( first ,second and third) in a family of 3
children.
To determine the sample space, we may construct a tree diagram to
list the equally likely outcomes of the experiment. Draw two branches
corresponding to the two possible outcomes (boy or girl) for the first
repetition of experiment (the first child). For the second child, again
draw four branches: two branches originate from the first boy and two
branches originate from the first girl. This is repeated for the third
child. See figure where B stands for boy and G stands for girl

Statistics ( Science ) 5
Statistics ( Science ) 6
Quick review of the Set theory
Null Space (or empty set) is a subset of the sample space that
contains no elements. we denote this event by the symbol Φ .
The relationships between events and the corresponding sample
space can be illustrated by Venn diagram. Sample space is
presented by a rectangle and events by circles drawn inside the
rectangle.

B
C

A C

Statistics ( Science ) 7
Intersection of events: The intersection of two
events A and B, denoted by the symbol A  B , is
the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B
Example: Let A={1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and
 B={2, 4, 6, 8}; then A B ={2, 4}

A B

A B
Intersection of A and B

Statistics ( Science ) 8
Union of Events: The union of two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A  B , is the event containing all
the elements that belong to A or to B or to both.
S

A B
A B

Union of A and B

Example: Let A= {2, 3, 5, 8} and B= {3, 6, 8} then

A B
 = {2, 3, 5, 6, 8}

Statistics ( Science ) 9
Complement of an Event: The complement of an
event A with respect to S is the set of all elements of S that are
not in A. we denote the complement of A by the symbol Ac
Example: Let R be the event that a red card is selected
from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards and let S be the
entire deck. Then R c is the event that the selected card from
the deck is not red but a black card.

Complement of A
Ac
A

Statistics ( Science ) 10
Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are
mutually exclusive
A  B  if
 ; that is, A and B have no elements
in common which means that the two Events can not occur
together in the same time. S

A
B

A B  
Mutually exclusive events
Example:
Suppose that a die is tossed. Let A be the event that an even number turns
up and B the event that an odd number shows.
Then A= {2, 4, 6} and B= {1, 3, 5} have no points in common, since an
even and an odd number cannot occur together on a single toss of a die
therefore, A ,B  and
 hence we say that the events A and B are mutually
exclusive

Statistics ( Science ) 11
Probability A value between zero and one, inclusive,
describing the relative possibility (chance or likelihood) an
event will occur.
 Probability is expressed either as a percent or as a decimal. The
likelihood that any particular event will happen may assume values
between 0 and 1.0.
1. A probability near 0 indicates an event is very unlikely to
occur.
2. A probability near 1 indicates an event is almost certain to
occur.
3. A probability of 0.5 indicates the occurrence of the event is
just as likely as it is unlikely.
4. The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in a sample space
is one.

Statistics ( Science ) 12
Assigning Probabilities to Events
Probability of an Event A denoted by P( A) is a numerical
measure of the “ chance” or “ likelihood” that an Event will
occur, such that
1- P( A)  0
2- P ( S )  1
3- if A  B   i.e. the Event A and the Event B are mutually
exclusive Events the
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )
(it is called special addition Rule).

Statistics ( Science ) 13
 Approaches to probability

Objective probability Subjective probability

Classic Empirical Based on

probability probability available
information

Based on
Based on relative
equally likely frequencies
outcomes

Statistics ( Science ) 14
 1- Objective : Classical method Approach
Classical method based on the following two assumptions
 First the sample space has n elements
 And outcomes (elements) have equal chances to occur
If an experiment has equally likely outcomes and if the
number of ways that the event can occur is S, then the
probability of the event A.

number of ways A can occur number of elements in A m

P ( A)   
nember of possible outcomes number of elements in S n

Statistics ( Science ) 15
Example: A coin is tossed twice. What is the
probability that at least one head occurs?
Sol.: the sample space of this experiment is
 S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}, If the coin is balanced (fair), each of
these outcomes would be equally likely to occur. Therefore each
sample point has one chance out of four chances, so let A
represent the event of at least 1 head occurring, then
 A= {HH, HT, TH}, and
3
P ( A) 
4
Note
if an event is impossible, then the probability of the event is 0
if the event is certain event, then the probability of the event is 1

Statistics ( Science ) 16
 2- Empirical or Relative Frequency method to
approximate probabilities. If an experiment occurs times and a certain
Outcome of this experiment occurs . Based on these actual results,
probabilities can be estimated as follows : N
nA

P ( A)  relative frquency of A
number of times A occurred

number of times the trial was repeated
n
 A
N

Example 1: we want to approximate the probability of rolling a seven using a pair

of dice that have been in use for a while. To do this he rolls the dice 100 times and
records 15 sevens.
 Let P ( A)  probability of rolling a seven then it is approximately

15
P(A)  100
 0.15
Statistics ( Science ) 17
Example 2:
In a recent year, there were about 3,000,000 skydiving jumps and 21
of them resulted in deaths. We use the relative frequency approach
as follows:

Here the classical approach cannot be used because the two outcomes (dying,
surviving) are not equally likely.
A subjective probability can be estimated in the absence of historical data.

Statistics ( Science ) 18
Example3 :- A sample of 50 students was taken
concerning the number of r activities they are engaged in.
The table below shows the results of the survey.

Frequency Find the probability that a

(Number of student participated in:
Number of Activities Students)
0 8 a. at least one activity
1 20 b. three or more activities
2 12
3 6 c. exactly two activities
4 3
5 1

Statistics ( Science ) 19
The probability assignments are given by dividing the frequency of
each number-of-days (number of activities participated) by the total
frequency (total number of students). For example, the number or
frequency of students not participating in any activities is 8. The
relative frequency of students not engaged in any activity is 8/50 or
(0.16).

Frequency
Number of (Number of Relative
Activities Students) Frequency
0 8 0.16
1 20 0.40
2 12 0.24
3 6 0.12
4 3 0.06
5 1 0.02
Statistics ( Science ) 20
Let A : the event that a student is engaged in at least one
activity.
P(A) = P(1 activity) + P(2 activities) + P(3 activities) + P(4
activities) + P(5 activities)
=.4 + .24 +.12 + .06 + .02 = .84
P(A)= 1 – P(0 activities) Why?
= 1 - .16 =.84
Let B : the event that a student is engaged in at least three
activities.
P(B) = P(3 activities) + P(4 activities) +P(5 activities)
= .12 + .06 + .02 = .20
Let C equal the even that the student is engaged in exactly
two activities.
P(C) = P(2 activities) = .24
Statistics ( Science ) 21
Example:
Classical and empirical approach
- Suppose a survey is conducted in which 500
families with three children are asked to disclose
the gender of their children, based on the results,
it was found that 180 of the families had two
boys and one girl.
Estimate the probability of having two boys and
one girl in a three-child family using the
empirical method (relative frequency)
Compute the probability of having two boys
and one girl in three-child family using the
classical method, assuming boys and girls are
equally likely. Statistics ( Science ) 22
Solution:
1- The empirical probability of event
E=”two boys and one girl” is
 180
PE   relative frequency of E   0.36  36%
500
 there is about 36% probability that a family
of three children will have two boys and one
girl

Statistics ( Science ) 23
The sample space S of this experiment is found by
following each branch to identify all the possible
outcomes of the experiment
S  BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG
N  N (S )
So =8
For the event E=”two boys and a girl”= {BBG, BGB, GBB}, we haveE
n
=3. Since the outcomes are equally likely (for example, BBG is just as likely
as BGB), the probability ofn E is 3
PE   E
  0.375  37.5%
N S  8

i.e. Thereis 37.5% probability that a family of three children will have
two boys and one girl
 Law of Large Numbers
 As a procedure is repeated again and again, the relative frequency probability of
an event tends to approach the actual probability.

Statistics ( Science ) 24
Law of Large Numbers(LLN)
Law of Large Numbers
As a procedure is repeated again and again, the
relative frequency probability of an event tends to
approach the actual probability.
Conclusion : in the previous example 3,if we
increase the sample size from 500 to 1000 or
more the empirical (relative probability) will be
closer to the classical probability

Statistics ( Science ) 25
 3 -Subjective probability
Subjective probability of an outcome is a probability obtained on
the basis of personal judgment. i.e. the probability of event , is
estimated by using knowledge of the relevant circumstances
Example: Prob. That it will rain tomorrow is 0.9
 We can use any data available as well as our experience and
intuition, but ultimately a probability value should express our
degree of belief that the experimental outcome will occur.
 The best probability estimates often are obtained by combining the
estimates from the classical or relative frequency approach with
the subjective estimates.

Statistics ( Science ) 26
 4-2 Rules and properties of Probabilities
1. The probability of any event E.P (E ) must be greater than or equal
to 0 and less than or equal to 1. if we let E denote any event, then
2. The sum of PEprobabilities
0 the   1. of all outcomes must equal 1. that is,
if the sample space Is , then . i.e.
S  event
probability of the certain e1 , e2 ,..., n
is eOne
3. Probability of impossible event is zero P ( S )  1
4. Special Addition Rule for DisjointEvents . P ( )  0

P (ei )   P (ei )
i i

 P e1   P e2   ...  P en   1

Statistics ( Science ) 27
 4-2-1 Law of Complements:
c
If A is an event, then the complement of A, denoted by A
,
represents the event composed of all basic outcomes in S
that do not belong to A.” S

P ( Ac )  1  P ( A) A
c
A

Example1 : If the probability of getting a “working”

computer is ) (0.7),
What is the probability of getting a defective computer?
(1-0.7=0.3)

Statistics ( Science ) 28
 Example 2:
 Sleepwalking
 Based on a journal article, the probability of randomly selecting someone who
has sleepwalked is 0.292, so P(sleepwalked) = 0.292 (based on data from
“Prevalence and Comorbidity of Nocturnal Wandering in the U.S. General
Population,” by Ohayon et al., Neurology, Vol. 78, No. 20). If a person is
randomly selected, find the probability of getting someone who has not
sleepwalked.
Solution
 Using the rule of complementary events, we get
 P(has not sleepwalked) = 1 − P(sleepwalked)
 = 1 − 0.292 = 0.708
 The probability of randomly selecting someone who has not sleepwalked is
0.708.

Statistics ( Science ) 29
 4-2-2 Addition Law of Probability
Let A and B be any two events in a sample space S.
The probability of the union of A and B is
P( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B ).

A B

Statistics ( Science ) 30
Example: All first-year students must take
statistic and computer application. Suppose
15% fail statistics, 12% fail computer
application, and 5% fail both. Suppose a first-
year student is selected at random. What is
the probability that student selected failed at
least one of the courses?
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A and B)
 0.15  0.12  0.05
 0.22

Statistics ( Science ) 31
 4-2-3- Conditional probabilities
A conditional probability of an event is a probability obtained with the
additional information that some other event has already occurred.
The probability of an event given that another event has occurred is
called a conditional probability.
What is the probability of event A to occur given than event B did occur.
The conditional probability of A given B is computed as follows:
P( A  B)
P( A | B) 
P( B)
Example: the probability that Ali parks in a no-parking zone and gets a
parking ticket is 0.2, and the probability that Ali cannot find a legal parking
space and has to park in the no-parking zone is 0.4. on a certain day, Ali
arrives at shopping center and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the
probability that he will get a parking ticket.
Sol. Let N=parking in a no-parking zone T=getting a ticket
Then P (T  N ) 0.2
P (T | N )    0 .5
P( N ) 0 .4

Statistics ( Science ) 32
Example 2: Pre-Employment Drug Screening
Find the following using the table:
a. If 1 of the 555 test subjects is randomly selected, find the probability that
the subject had a positive test result, given that the subject actually uses
drugs. That is, find P(positive test result | subject uses drugs).

Statistics ( Science ) 33
Solution:
 a. Intuitive Approach: We want P(positive test result | subject uses drugs). If
we assume that the selected subject actually uses drugs, we are dealing only
with the 50 subjects in the first row of the table. Among those 50 subjects, 45
had positive test results, so we get this result:
 P(positive test result | subject uses drugs)=

 b. Formal Approach: The same result can be found by using the formula for
P(B | A) given with the formal approach. P(B | A) = P(positive test result |
subject uses drugs) where B = positive test result and A = subject uses drugs.
 P(positive test result | subject uses drugs)

Statistics ( Science ) 34
Important note P(A I B) ≠ P(B I A)
If 1 of the 555 test subjects is randomly selected, find the probability that the
subject actually uses drugs, given that he or she had a positive test result. That is,
find P(subject uses drugs | positive test result).
Solution: ?
Here we want P(subject uses drugs | positive test result). This is the probability
that the selected subject uses drugs, given that the subject had a positive test
result. If we assume that the subject had a positive test result, we are dealing with
the 70 subjects in the first column of the table.
Among those 70 subjects, 45 use drugs, so
P(subject uses drugs | positive test result)

Statistics ( Science ) 35
Interpretation:
 Thefirst result of P(positive test result | subject uses
drugs) = 0.900 indicates that a subject who uses drugs
has a 0.900 probability of getting a positive test result.

 Thesecond result of P(subject uses drugs | positive test

result) = 0.643 indicates that for a subject who gets a
positive test result, there is a 0.643 probability that this
subject actually uses drugs. Note that P(positive test
result | subject uses drugs) ≠ P(subject uses drugs |
positive test result).

Statistics ( Science ) 36
 Example 3: Soda preferences
 Contingency table: A table used to classify sample observations
according to two or more characteristics.
 A contingency table is a cross tabulation that simultaneously
summarizes two variables of interest and their relationship. .
 A survey of 200 school children classified each as to gender and
the number of times Pepsi-Cola was purchased each month at
school. Each respondent is classified according to two criteria-the
number of times Pepsi was purchased and gender.

Gender
Bought
Pepsi Boys Girls Total
0 5 10 15
1 15 25 40
2 or more 80 65 145
Total 100 100 200
Statistics ( Science ) 37
4-2-4 Multiplication Rule and Independent Events
Multiplication Rule for When two events A and B are
Independent Events: Let A dependent , the probabilit y of
and B be two independent both occurring is
events, then P ( A  B )  P ( A and B )
P ( A  B )  P ( A) P ( B ).
(is called special multiplication rule)  P ( A)  P ( B | A).
(is called general multiplication rule)

The multiplication law provides a way to compute the

probability of an intersection of two events.
Two Events A and B are independent if P(A|B) = P(A).
In other words, if the occurrence of event B does not affect
the likelihood of event A occurring, then A and B are
independent.
Statistics ( Science ) 38
Review Exercises on probability :
Exercise 1:
• Flip a coin twice. What is the probability of
observing two heads?
• Flip a coin twice. What is the probability of
getting a head and then a tail? A tail and then
a head? One head?
• Three computers are ordered. If the
probability of getting a “working” computer
is 0.7, what is the probability that all three
are “working” ?
Statistics ( Science ) 39
Exercise 2:- statistical section consists of 15
female students and 11 male students. If two
students are to be selected without
replacement.
1) If the first selected student is a female what is the
probability that the second student will be a male student.
2) What is the probability that both the two selected students
will be female.
3) What is the probability that both selected students will be
of the same gender.
4) What is the probability that the two selected students will
of a different gender.

Statistics ( Science ) 40
 LetF=the selected student will be a female
 And M=the selected student will be a male
 Then 15 15 and 14
P( F )  . P( F2 M 1 )  . P( F2 F1 )  .
26 25 25
11 10 11
P( M )  P( M 2 M1 )  P( M 2 F1 ) 
26 25 25

1) Probability first female second male is

11
P ( F2  F1 ) 
25

2) Probability both female is

14 15 21
P ( F2  F1 )  P ( F2 F1 ).P ( F1 )  .   0.3231
25 26 65

Statistics ( Science ) 41
3) Probability of same gender is
14 15 21
P ( F2  F1 )  P ( F2 F1 ).P ( F1 )  .   0.3231
25 26 65
10 11 11
P ( M 2  M 1 )  P ( M 2 M 1 ).P ( M 1 )  .   0.1692
25 26 65
P ( same gender )  P ( F2  F1 )  P ( M 2  M 1 ) Why ?
 0.3231  0.1692  0.4923

4) Probability of different gender is

P ( different gender )  1  P ( same gender ) Why ?
 1  0.4923
 0.5077

Statistics ( Science ) 42
 Example 3: Soda preferences
 If a school child is randomly selected find the probability that:
 He is a boy
 She is girl who didn’t buy Pepsi
 He is a boy or bought 2 or more Pepsi
 She bought only one Pepsi if she is a girl
 Are the two variables gender and Soda preference

Gender
Bought
Pepsi Boys Girls Total
0 5 10 15
1 15 25 40
2 or more 80 65 145
Total 100 100 200

Statistics ( Science ) 43
Exercise 4:gender versus employment status
table
 A table used to classify sample observation according to
two or more identifiable characteristics
 The table below represents a classification of data of 100
adults according to gender and working status

Male Female total Male Female total

Employed 0.5 0.35 0.85

Employed 50 35 85
unemployed 0.1 0.05 0.15
unemployed 10 5 15
total 0.6 0.40 1
total 60 40 100

Statistics ( Science ) 44
4-3 Principle of counting
To know the number of all possible outcomes for a sequence of
events , three rules can be used
1- Fundamental counting rule
In a sequence of n events in which each has kipossibilities, then total
number of possibilities will be k1k 2 ...k n

2- Permutations
The number of possible permutations is the number of different orders in
which particular events occur. The number of possible permutations are
n!
n pr 
(n  r )!

where r is the number of events in the series, n is the number of possible

events, and n! denotes the factorial of n = the product of all the positive
integers from 1 to n.
Note: The order of arrangement is importantStatistics
in permutations.
( Science ) 45
3- Combinations
When the order in which the events occurred is
of no interest, we are dealing with
combinations. The number of possible
combinations is
n n!
nC r    
 r  r!(n  r )!
 

where r is the number of events in the series, n is the number of

possible events, and n! denotes the factorial of n

Statistics ( Science ) 46
Example 1: fundamental counting rule
A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the number of outcomes for the
sequence of events.
Sol.Since the coin can land either heads up or tails up and since the die can land
any one of six numbers showing face up, there 2*6=12 possibilities.
A tree diagram can also be drawn for the sequence of events.

Statistics ( Science ) 47
Example 2and 3 :fundamental counting rule
Example1: There are four blood types: A, B, O, AB. Blood can also
be categorized as Rh+ and Rh-. Finally, a blood donor can be
classified as either male or female. How many different ways can a
donor have his or her blood labeled?
Answer: 4 . 2 . 2 =16
Example 2: The access code for a car’s security system consists of
four digits. Each digit can be any number from 0 through 9.

How many access codes are possible when

1. each digit can be used only once and not repeated?
2. each digit can be repeated?
3. each digit can be repeated but the first digit cannot be 0 or 1?

Statistics ( Science ) 48
Solution:


Statistics ( Science ) 49
Example on permutations and combinations:
Example There are 12 players on a High School basketball team.
The Coach must pick five players among the twelve on the team
to comprise the starting lineup. How many different groups are
possible? (Order does not matter.)

12!
12C 5   792
5! (12  5)!
Example:- Suppose that in addition to selecting the group,
he must also rank each of the players in that starting lineup
according to their ability (order matters).
12!
12 P 5   95,040
(12  5)!

Statistics ( Science ) 50
Other examples on counting rules
 Example1 : Quest Diagnostic collects blood specimens from
different laboratories. A driver is dispatched to make collection at 5
different locations. How many different routes are possible?
Solution:
For those 5 different locations, the number of different routes is 5! =
5.4.3.2.1= 120
 Example 2 :A new director of the Health Administration plans to
visit one hospital in each of five different states. If the five states
are randomly selected from all 50 states without replacement and
the order is also random, what is the probability that she visits
New York, Colorado, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Texas, in that
order?

Statistics ( Science ) 51
Solution:
There are possible routes

The probability is 1/254,251,200

Example 3:
The Newport Medical Supply Company must appoint a president,
chief executive officer (CEO), Chief Operating Officer (COO), and
chief financial officer (CFO). There are 10 qualified candidates.
How many different ways can the four officers be appointed?
Solution

Statistics ( Science ) 52