Chapter 5

Basic of Probability
Chapter 5 Overview
Introduction
 5.1 Finite Probability Spaces and Events
 5.2 Axioms of Probability
 5.3 Additional Rules of Probability
 5.4 Independence
5.4.1 Dependent and Independent Events
5.4.2 Conditional Probability
5.4.3 Conditional Independence

Chapter 5 2
Probability
Probability can be defined as the
chance of an event occurring. Some
examples of how probability is used
everyday would be weather
forecasting, “75% chance of rain” or
for setting insurance rates.

Chapter 5 3
5.1 Finite Probability Spaces and
Events
 A probability experiment is a chance process that
leads to well-defined results called outcomes.
 An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
 A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes
of a probability experiment.
 An event consists of outcomes.

Chapter 5 4
Sample Spaces

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

Chapter 5 5
Example1: Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Chapter 5 6
Example 2: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of the
children if a family has three children. Use B for
boy and G for girl.

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Chapter 5 7
Example 3: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for
the gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
Chapter 5 8
5.2 Axioms of Probability

Chapter 5 9
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

Classical probability

Empirical probability

Subjective probability

Chapter 5 10
Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces
to determine the numerical probability that
an event will happen and assumes that all
outcomes in the sample space are equally
likely to occur.

nE  # of desired outcomes

P E   
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes

Chapter 5 11
Example 4: Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability
that two of the three children are girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two

girls.

The probability of having two of three children

being girls is 3/8.

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Sample Spaces and Probability
The complement of an event E ,
denoted by E , is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not
included in the outcomes of event E.
P E  = 1- P E 

Chapter 5 13
Example 5: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Event Complement of the Event

Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6

Selecting a letter of the alphabet Getting a consonant

and getting a vowel

Selecting a month and getting a Getting February, March, April, May,

month that begins with a J August, September, October,
November, or December

Selecting a day of the week and Getting Saturday or Sunday

getting a weekday

Chapter 5 14
Example 6: Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an
1
industrialized country of the world is 5 , find the
probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country 
= 1  P living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5

Chapter 5 15
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

Classical probability

Empirical probability

Subjective probability

Chapter 5 16
Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.

f frequency of desired class

P E   
n Sum of all frequencies

Chapter 5 17
Example 7: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
f
A 22 P O  
B 5 n
AB 2 21
O 21 
50
Total 50

Chapter 5 18
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 22 5
P  A or B   
B 5 50 50
AB 2 27

O 21 50
Total 50

Chapter 5 19
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
P  neither A nor O 
B 5 5 2
 
AB 2 50 50
O 21 7

Total 50 50
Chapter 5 20
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22
had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  not AB 
B 5  1  P  AB 
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21  1  
Total 50 50 50 25

Chapter 5 21
Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

Classical probability

Empirical probability

Subjective probability

Chapter 5 22
Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability
value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events

Chapter 5 23
5.3 Additional Rules of Probability
 Two events are mutually exclusive
events if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e., they have no outcomes in
common)
Addition Rules
P  A or B   P  A   P  B  Mutually Exclusive
P  A or B   P  A   P  B   P  A and B  Not M. E.

Chapter 5 24
Example 8: Rolling a Dice
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single dice is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive

Chapter 5 25
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

Chapter 5 26
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

Chapter 5 27
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number
less than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive

Chapter 5 28
Example 9: Political Affiliation
At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13
Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a person is
selected at random, find the probability that he or
she is either a Democrat or Republicans.

Mutually Exclusive Events

P  Democrat or Republican 
 P  Democrat   P  Republican 
13 20 33 11
   
39 39 39 13

Chapter 5 29
Example 10: Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians;
7 nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
10 3 13

Not Mutually Exclusive

P  Nurse or Male   P  Nurse   P  Male   P  Male Nurse 

8 3 1 10
   
13 13 13 13
Chapter 5 30
5.4 Independence
The concept of independence in probability theory is a
fundamental one. It deals with the relationship between
different events and how the occurrence of one event
affects the occurrence of another. Three basics in
independence’s concept:

 Dependent and Independent Events

 Conditional Probability

 Conditional Independence

Chapter 5 31
Dependent and Independent
Events
Two events A and B are independent
events if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.

Multiplication Rules
P  A and B   P  A   P  B  Independent
P  A and B   P  A   P  B A  Dependent

Chapter 5 32
Example 11: Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die.
Independent Events
P  Head and 4   P  Head   P  4 
1 1 1
  
2 6 12

This problem could be solved using sample space.

H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

Chapter 5 33
Example 12: Selecting a Colored Ball
A jar contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its color noted. Then it
is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color
noted. Find the probability of each of these.
a) Selecting 2 blue balls

Independents Events

P(blue and blue)  P (blue)  P (blue)

2 2 4 1
   
10 10 100 25
Chapter 5 34
b) Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

P(blue and white)  P (blue)  P ( white)

2 5 10 1
   
10 10 100 10

c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

P(red and blue)  P ( red )  P (blue)

3 2 6 3
   
10 10 100 50

Chapter 5 35
Example 13: Selecting a Colored Ball
without replacement
A jar contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its color noted, without
replacement. A second ball is selected and its
color noted. Find the probability of each of these.
a) Selecting 2 blue balls
Dependents Events

P(blue1 and blue2) = P(blue1).P(blue2|blue1)

𝟐 𝟏
¿ .
𝟏𝟎 𝟗

Chapter 5 36
b) Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

P(blue and white)= P(blue).P(white|blue)

𝟐 𝟓
¿ .
𝟏𝟎 𝟗

c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball

P(red and blue) )= P(red).P(blue|red)

𝟑 𝟐
¿ .
𝟏𝟎 𝟗

Chapter 5 37
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability
that the second event B occurs given that
the first event A has occurred.

Conditional Probability
P  A and B 
P  B A 
P  A

Chapter 5 38
Example 14: Parking Tickets
In a group of 100 sports car buyers, 40 bought
alarm systems, 30 purchased bucket seats, and 20
purchased an alarm system and bucket seats. If a
car buyer chosen at random bought an alarm
system, what is the probability they also bought
bucket seats?

A= alarm systems, B = bucket seats

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) 0.2
𝑃 ( 𝐵| 𝐴 )= = =0.5
𝑃 ( 𝐴) 0.4

Chapter 5 39
Example 15: Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.

Chapter 5 40
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered
yes (Y), given that the respondent was a female (F).

8
P  F and Y  100 8 4

P YF   P F

50
 
50 25
100

Chapter 5 41
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male
(M), given that the respondent answered no (N).

18
P  N and M  18 3

P MN   P N
 100
60
 
60 10
100

Chapter 5 42
Conditional Independence
Two events A and B are conditionally
independence given an event C with
P(C)>0.

Conditional Independence

Chapter 5 43
Example 16: Venn Diagram
A B
7 1 6
𝑁 =60

3 1 4

12 C

26

12 12 2
𝑃 ( 𝐴) = 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵)=
60 60 60

4 5 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴∨𝐶 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨𝐶 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵∨𝐶 )=
20 20 20

Chapter 5 44