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Introduction To Bayesian Models

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Hanna Jane Calanuga
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8 views

Introduction To Bayesian Models

Uploaded by

Hanna Jane Calanuga
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to

Bayesian Models
Bayesian modeling is a powerful statistical framework that allows us to
incorporate prior knowledge and update our beliefs as new data becomes
available. This approach provides a principled way to handle uncertainty and
make informed decisions in a wide range of applications.
Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' theorem is the foundational equation that underpins Bayesian modeling. It describes the
relationship between the conditional probabilities of hypotheses and data, enabling us to update our
beliefs about the probability of a hypothesis given new evidence. Understanding this theorem is crucial
for applying Bayesian methods effectively.

Prior Probability Likelihood Posterior Probability

Our initial belief about the The probability of observing The updated probability of a
probability of a hypothesis the data given a specific hypothesis being true after
before observing any data. hypothesis is true. considering the new data.
Prior Distributions
In Bayesian modeling, we start with a prior distribution that represents our initial beliefs about the
parameters of interest. These priors can be informed by existing knowledge, expert opinions, or non-
informative default choices. Careful selection of priors is crucial as they can significantly influence
the final results.

1 Informative Priors 2 Non-informative Priors


Based on prior studies or expert Reflect a lack of strong prior beliefs
knowledge about the problem domain. about the parameter values.

3 Conjugate Priors
Mathematical properties that simplify the calculation of the posterior distribution.
Likelihood Functions
The likelihood function describes the probability of observing the data given a specific set of parameter
values. It is a crucial component of Bayesian modeling, as it captures the information provided by the
data. The choice of likelihood function depends on the underlying distribution of the data and the
research question.

Normal Likelihood Binomial Likelihood Poisson Likelihood

Appropriate for continuous Suitable for binary or count Useful for modeling the
data that follows a normal data, such as the number of events occurring
distribution. success/failure of an event. in a fixed interval of time or
space.
Posterior Distributions
The posterior distribution is the key output of Bayesian modeling. It represents the updated beliefs about
the parameters of interest, incorporating both the prior information and the observed data. The posterior
distribution can be used for parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, and making predictions.

Prior
Our initial beliefs about the parameters.

Likelihood
The information provided by the data.

Posterior
The updated beliefs about the parameters.
Model Fitting and Inference
Bayesian models are typically fit using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which allow for
efficient sampling from the posterior distribution. This enables parameter estimation, uncertainty
quantification, and various forms of statistical inference, such as hypothesis testing and model
comparison.

Parameter Uncertainty Hypothesis Predictive


Estimation Quantification Testing Modeling
Obtain the most Provide credible Evaluate the Make predictions
probable values of intervals that capture probability of about future
the model the range of plausible hypotheses or observations based
parameters. parameter values. comparisons between on the fitted model.
models.
Advantages of Bayesian Modeling
Bayesian modeling offers several key advantages over traditional frequentist approaches, making it a
powerful tool for data analysis and decision-making.

Explicit Uncertainty Flexible Prior Information


Bayesian models provide a clear Bayesian methods allow for the
representation of uncertainty through the incorporation of prior knowledge, which can
posterior distribution. improve model performance.

Intuitive Interpretation Robust to Small Samples


Bayesian results can be directly interpreted Bayesian models can produce reliable results
as the probability of hypotheses or even with limited data, by leveraging prior
parameters given the data. information.
Applications and Case Studies
Bayesian modeling has been successfully applied in a wide range of domains, including but not limited
to:

Medical Research Machine Learning and AI


Assessing the effectiveness of new drugs or Developing probabilistic models for tasks
treatments, and quantifying the uncertainty like classification, clustering, and anomaly
in the results. detection.

1 2 3

Forecasting and Decision-Making


Making predictions about future events or
outcomes, while accounting for
uncertainties.

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