Probability and

Statistics
DEFINITION

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 Explaining probability

Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of
outcomes of an event. For an experiment having 'n' number of outcomes, the number of favorable
outcomes can be denoted by x. The formula to calculate the probability of an event is as follows.

Probability(Event) = Favorable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n

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 Classical Probability – Classical Empirical Probability - Empirical
probability states that in an probability is also known as an
experiment where there are B experimental probability which
equally likely outcomes, and event refers to a probability that is based
X has exactly A ofthese outcomes, on historical data.
then the probability of X is A/B,
orP(X) = A/B.

TYPES

Axiomatic Probability - In axiomatic

probability, a set of rules or axioms by
Subjective Probability - Subjective Kolmogorov are applied to all the
probability considers an individual's types. The chances of occurrence or
own belief of an event occurring. non-occurrence of any event can be
quantified by the applications of these
axioms

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 TRIALS
A trial is a single occurrence or experiment with uncertain outcomes. It's a fundamental concept
used to analyze and model random events . Here are some common types of trials in probability:
1. *Bernoulli Trial:* This is a simple trial with two possible outcomes, often referred to as
success and failure.

2. *Binomial Trial:* A series of independent Bernoulli trials with a fixed number of trials (n).
The number of successes in these trials follows a binomial distribution.

3. *Multinomial Trial:* In this type of trial, there are more than two possible outcomes, and
each outcome has a specific probability associated with it. It's used to model situations with
multiple categories.

4. *Geometric Trial:* This trial focuses on the number of trials needed until the first success
occurs in a series of independent Bernoulli trial

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5. *Poisson Trial:* Poisson trials model events that occur randomly over time or space, with a
constant average rate of occurrence.

6. *Hypergeometric Trial:* This type of trial involves selecting items without replacement from
a finite population. It's used in situations where the composition of the population changes as
items are selected.

7. *Markov Chain Trial:* Markov chains involve a series of trials where the outcome of each
trial depends on the outcome of the previous trial.

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 Events
An event in probability is the subset of the respective sample space.
So, what is sample space?
The entire possible set of outcomes of a random experiment is the sample space or the individual
space of that experiment.
Example:The sample space for the tossing of three coins simultaneously is given by :S = {(T , T ,
T) , (T , T , H) , (T , H , T) , (T , H , H ) , (H , T , T ) , (H , T , H) , (H , H, T) ,(H , H , H)}
Suppose, if we want to find only the outcomes which have at least two heads; then the set of all
such possibilities can be given as :E = { (H , T , H) , (H , H ,T) , (H , H ,H) , (T , H , H)}
Thus, an event is a subset of the sample space There could be a lot of events associated with a
given sample space. For any event to occur, the outcome of the experiment must be an element of
the set of event E.

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 What is the Probability of Occurrence of an Event?
The number of favourable outcomes to the total number of outcomes is defined as the probability of occurrence
of any event. So, the probability that an event will occur is given as : P(E) = Number of Favourable Outcomes/
Total Number of Outcomes

Types of Events in Probability:

Some of the important probability events are:*
1. Impossible and Sure Events*
2. Simple Events*
3. Compound Events*
4. Independent and Dependent Events*
5. Mutually Exclusive Events*
6. Exhaustive Events*
7. Complementary Events*
8. Events Associated with “OR”* Events Associated with “AND”*
9. Event E1 but not E2

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Sure Event
It is an event that always occurs when an experiment is conducted. For example, getting a tail when a coin is
tossed. The probability of a sure event is 1. Example:The probability of an event that has all outcomes of the
experiment, i.e., sample space, is
Impossible Event
If the probability of occurrence of an event is zero, then it is an impossible event. Example: The event of getting 7
when a die is thrown is impossible. This is because the outcomes of throwing a die include {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Independent Event
When the outcome of the first event does not influence the outcome of the second event, those events are known
as independent events. Example: The event of getting a tail after tossing a coin and the event of getting a head
when tossing another coin.
Dependent Event
When the outcome of the first event influences the outcome of the second event, those events are called dependent
events. Example: If we draw two coloured marbles from a bag and the first marble is not replaced before we draw
the second marble, then the outcome of the second draw will depend on the outcome of the first draw.

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 Sample space:

A sample space is a collection or a set of possible outcomes of a random experiment. The sample space is
represented using the symbol, “S”. The subset of possible outcomes of an experiment is called events.
Example : When we toss a coin, there can be only two outcomes i.e., either head or tail.
So, the sample space will be, S = {H, T} (Where H is the head and T is the tail.)

Sample point :
In a probabilistic experiment, a sample point is one of the possible outcomes of the experiment. The set of all
sample points is called sample space. Example : Suppose the random experiment is the flip of a coin. It can give
rise to two possible outcomes: tail ( T ) and head ( H ). So here, T and H are the two sample points in the sample
space S = {H,T}.

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 Mutually exclusive events
[ ] two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time or simultaneously. –
[ ] In other words, mutually exclusive events are called disjoint events. –
[ ] If two events are considered disjoint events, then the probability of both events occurring at the same time
will be zero.
Probability of Disjoint (or) Mutually Exclusive Event = P ( A and B) = 0
How to Find Mutually Exclusive Events?-
[ ] In probability, the specific addition rule is valid when two events are mutually exclusive. It states that the
probability of either event occurring is the sum of probabilities of each event occurring.* P (A Or B) = P(A) +
P(B)* P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Rules for Mutually Exclusive Events
• Addition Rule: P (A + B) = 1
• * Subtraction Rule: P (A U B)’ = 0
• * Multiplication Rule: P (A ∩ B) = 0
Examples When tossing a coin, the event of getting head and tail are mutually exclusive. Because the
probability of getting head and tail simultaneously is 0.

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 Mutually Exhaustive Events:
Mutually exhaustive events are like pieces of a puzzle that, when put together, cover
the entire picture. In probability, these are events that can't happen at the same time
and, when combined, they include all possible outcomes for a situation.
Example:Let's say we're rolling a fair six-sided die. We have two mutually exhaustive
events:
1. Rolling an even number (2, 4, or 6).
2. 2. Rolling an odd number (1, 3, or 5).
3. These two events cannot occur simultaneously because a single roll can't be both
even and odd. When you combine them, you cover all the possible outcomes of
rolling the die. This makes them mutually exhaustive events, ensuring that one of
them always happens when you roll the die.

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Question : What is the probability of a die showing a
number 3 or number 5?

Solution:
Let, P(3) is the probability of getting a number 3
P(5) is the probability of getting a number 5P(3) = 1/6 and P(5) = 1/6
So, P(3 or 5) = P(3) + P(5)P(3 or 5) = (1/6) + (1/6) = 2/6P(3 or 5) = 1/3
Therefore, the probability of a die showing 3 or 5 is 1/3.

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ADDITIONAL RULE OF PROBABILITY:

The addition rule of probability states that the probability of two events is the sum
of the probabilities of the two events that will happen minus the probability of both
the events that will happen.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

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Example : If you take out a single card from a regular pack of cards, what is
probability that the card is either an ace or spade?

Let X be the event of picking an ace and Y be the event of picking a spade .
P(X)=4/52P(Y)=13/52
The two events are not mutually exclusive, as there is one favorable outcome in
which the card can be both an ace and spade
P(X and Y)=1/52
P(X or Y)=4/52+13/52−1/52
=16/52

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 Multiplication Rule of Probability :

According to the multiplication rule of probability, the probability of occurrence of

both the events A and B is equal to the product of the probability of B occurring and
the conditional probability that event A occurring given that event B occurs.
1. If A and B are dependent events, then the probability of both events occurring
simultaneously is given by P(A ∩ B) = P(B) . P(A|B)
2. If A and B are two independent events in an experiment, then the probability
of both events occurring simultaneously is given by :P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B)

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 Application of probability (conclusion)

Probability theory has a wide range of applications in various fields. Some key
applications include:
1. Weather Forecasting: Meteorologists use probability to make predictions about
weather patterns and the likelihood of various weather events.
2. Machine Learning: Probability is used in machine learning algorithms for tasks
like classification, regression, and natural language processing.
3. Medical Diagnosis: In healthcare, probability is used to assess the likelihood of
diseases, interpret test results, and make treatment decisions.

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