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Discrete Probability Distribution

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18 views

Discrete Probability Distribution

Uploaded by

Jolyn Lee
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Discrete Probability Distribution


Binomial Distribution
Poisson Distribution

1
DISCRETE
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Discrete Random Variable

Definition:
A random variable is a variable whose value is
determined by the outcome of a random
experiment.

A random variable that assumes countable values


is called a discrete random variable.
Examples of discrete random variables

1. The number of cars sold at a dealership during a


given month
2. The number of houses in a certain block
3. The number of fish caught on a fishing trip
4. The number of complaints received at the office
of an airline on a given day
5. The number of customers who visit a bank during
any given hour
The Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of
a Discrete Probability Distributions
 Mean of a probability distribution
E ( X )     xP ( x)
 Variance of a probability distribution

 Standard Deviation of a probability


distribution
SD( X )    Var ( X )
Example 1

Let x denote the number of breakdowns for this


machine during a given week. Table 3.1 lists the
probability distribution of x.
x P(x)
0 .15
1 .20
2 .35
3 .30
ΣP(x) = 1.00
Table 3.1 Probability Distribution of the Number of
Breakdowns
Find the mean number of breakdown per week for
this machine.

x P(x) xP(x)
0 .15 0(.15) = .00
1 .20 1(.20) = .20
2 .35 2(.35) = .70
3 .30 3(.30) = .90
ΣxP(x) = 1.80

The mean is µ = Σx P (x) = 1.80


Example 2

Let x denote the number of defective computer parts in a


shipment of 400. The following table gives the probability
distribution of x.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) .02 .20 .30 .30 .10 .08

Compute the standard deviation of x.


Example 2

Computations to find the Standard Deviation

x P(x) xP(x) x² x²P(x)


0 .02 .00 0 .00
1 .20 .20 1 .20
2 .30 .60 4 1.20
3 .30 .90 9 2.70
4 .10 .40 16 1.60
5 .08 .40 25 2.00
ΣxP(x) = 2.50 Σx²P(x) = 7.70
Example 2

   xPx   2.50 defective computer parts in 400


σ  x 2
P  x    2
 7 . 70  ( 2 .50 ) 2
 1.45
 1.204 defective computer parts
BINOMIAL
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Binomial Probability Distribution
 Binomial Probability Function

P(X =x) =
where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
13

 Mean
μ  E(x)  np
 Variance and Standard Deviation
variance, σ 2
 npq
standard deviation, σ  npq
Where n = sample size
p = probability of success
q = (1 – p) = probability of failure
Example 3

70% of the students applying to a university are accepted. What


is the probability that among the next 20 applicants

a. At least 18 will be accepted?


b. Exactly 10 will be accepted?
c. Exactly 5 will be rejected?
d. Determine the expected / mean number of acceptances.
e. Compute the standard deviation.
Example 3
Let X be the number of students applying to a university
are accepted. X ~ Binomial (20, 0.7)

a. Exactly 10 will be accepted?


P(X = 10) = 0.031

b. Exactly 5 will be rejected? P(X = 15) = 0.179

c. At least 18 will be accepted?


Example 3

Let X be the number of students applying to a university are


accepted. X ~ Binomial (20, 0.7)

d. Determine the expected / mean number of acceptances.


  np   20  0.7   14

e. Compute the standard deviation.

  npq   20 0.7 0.3  2.049


Exercises

A survey shows that 5% of students major in Business


Administration. Consider a random sample of 15
students, find the probability that the number of
students major in Business Administration would be:
a) Ten P(X = 10) = 0
b) None P(X = 0) = 0.463
c) Less than two
P(X<2 ) = P(X =0) + P(X=1) = 0.463 + 0.366 = 0.829
d) At least one P  X  1  1  P  X  0 
=1  0.463
17
 0.537
POISSON
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Probability Distribution

𝑥 −𝜇
𝜇 ×𝑒
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) =
𝑥!
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
 = mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828

For a Poisson variable, the mean and variance are both


equal to  .
Example 4
On the average, 6.7 cars arrive at the drive-up window of a
bank every hour.
a. Compute the probability that exactly 5 cars will arrive in the
next hour.
𝑥𝑥 −− 𝜇𝜇 55 −6.7
−6.7
𝜇 × 𝑒 6.7 × 𝑒
P ( 𝑋=5 )= = =0.138
𝑥! 5!
b. Compute the probability that less than two cars will arrive in
the next hour.
P(X<2 ) = P(X =0) + P(X =1)

0.00123 + 0.00825
0.00948
Example 4
On the average, 6.7 cars arrive at the drive-up window of a
bank every hour.

c. Compute the probability that no more than 2 cars will


arrive in the next 30 minutes = 6.7 / 2 = 3.35
P(X≤2 ) = P(X =0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)

= 0.035 + 0.118 + 0.197


=0.35
d. Compute the mean and standard deviation for the number
of cares that arrive in an hour.
  6.7,   6.7  2.588

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