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Chapter 1. Random Variables and Probability Distributions (Autosaved)

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
29 views61 pages

Chapter 1. Random Variables and Probability Distributions (Autosaved)

Uploaded by

Ana Bretaña
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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oillustrate a random variable.

odistinguish between discrete and continuous


random variables.
ofind the possible values of a random
variable.
oillustrate a probability distribution for a
discrete random variable and its properties.
Lesson 1.1
 A function that associates a real number to each
element in the sample space.
 It is a variable whose values
are determined by chance.
 It is a numerical description of the outcome of an
experiment.

Note: A random variable is represented by an uppercase letter


and lowercase letter is used to represent one of its values.
 A variable that can assume only a finite or a
specific number of values.
 The number of values are counted and can
be represented by nonnegative
whole numbers.
Example:
1. the number of registered cars.
2. the number of children in a family.
3. the number of students in a classroom.
 A variable that can assume infinite number of
values within a specified interval.
 The values are obtained from data that are
measured and can be represented not only by
nonnegative whole numbers but also by
fractions and decimals.
Example:
1. height of a person.
2. distance traveled by a vehicle.
3. weight of a newborn baby.
Tell whether each variable is discrete or
continuous.

1. Time required for a vehicle to cover 20 km.


2. Number of airplanes in an airport.
3. Headcount of animals in a zoo.
4. Amount of sugar in a cup of coffee.
5. Volume of water.
 The possible values of a random variable are
values that are obtained from functions
that assign a real number to each sample
point of a sample space.

Steps:
1. List the sample space.
2. Count the number of the assigned value in
each outcome and assigned this number to this
outcome.
3. Make a conclusion.
Suppose three coins are tossed. Let X be the
random variable representing the number of
heads that come out. Determine the values of the
random variable X.
Solution:
Determine the sample space.
S = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}
Count the number of heads in each outcome in the sample space
and assign this number to this outcome.

Possible Outcomes Value of the Random


Variable X
(number heads)

TTT 0
TTH 1
THT 1
HTT 1
HHT 2
HTH 2 So, the possible values of
THH 2 the
HHH 3 random variable X are 0, 1,
2, and 3.
An urn contains 4 green balls and 3 yellow balls. An
experiment is done such that two balls are drawn one after
the another without replacement. If Z is the random
variable that gives the number of green balls for each
outcome, find all the possible values for Z.

Solution:
Determine the sample space.
S = {GG, YG, GY, YY}
Count the number of green balls in each outcome in the sample
space and assign this number to this outcome.

Possible Outcomes Value of the Random


Variable Z
(number of green
balls)
GG 2
YG 1
GY 1
YY 0

So, the possible values of the random


variable Z are 0, 1, and 2.
Lesson 1.2
 A discrete probability distribution or a
probability mass function (PMF) consists of the
values a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values.

 It can be presented by using a graph


(histogram), table or notation formula.
a. The probability of each value of a discrete
random variable must be between or equal to 0
and 1. (0 ≤ 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 1)
b. The sum of all the probabilities
is 1. (Σ 𝑃 𝑋 = 1)
Example: X 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Possible Outcomes Value of the
Random Variable X
(number of heads)
Suppose three coins are
TTT 0
tossed. Let X be the random TTH 1
variable representing the THT 1

number of heads that come HTT 1


HHT 2
out. Construct the HTH 2
probability distribution of THH 2

the random variable. HHH 3

The possible values of the random variable X are 0, 1, 2, and


3.
Solution: Compute the probability to each value of the random
variable X.

No head: 𝑃 0 = 81 𝑜𝑟 0.125 Two heads: 𝑃 = 83 𝑜𝑟 0.375


2
One head: 𝑃 1 = 3 𝑜𝑟 0.375 Three heads: 𝑃 3 = 81 𝑜𝑟 0.125
8

Hence, the discrete probability distribution is shown below.

Number of 0 1 2 3
Heads (X)
Probability 1 3 3 1
P(X) 8 8 8 8
A probability histogram
shows the relative
probabilities of the values of
a random variable in the
form of bar graph.
An urn contains 4 green balls (G) and Possible Value of the Random
Outcomes Variable Z
3 yellow balls (Y). An experiment is (number of green balls)
done such that two balls are drawn GG 2
one after the another without YG 1
replacement. If random GY 1
variable that gives the YY 0
green balls Znumber of for
construct the probability
each distribution.
outcome,
is
The possible values of the random variable Z are 0, 1, and 2.
the
Solution: Compute the probability to each value of
the random variable Z.

No green ball : 𝑃 0 = 41 𝑜𝑟 0.25


2 1
One green ball: 𝑃 1 = =4 2
𝑜𝑟 0.5
Two green balls: 𝑃 2 = 41 𝑜𝑟 0.25

Thus, the discrete probability distribution is


presented below.
Number of 0 1 2
Green balls (Z)
Probability 1 1 1
P(Z) 4 2 4
On a certain 6-day period, an Day No. of
Customers (X)
office canteen kept records of the
Monday 483
number of customers it served Tuesday 651
each day from Wednesday 495
Saturday. Monday to The Thursday 567
Friday 690
customers number
Saturday 265
represented by X. of per
day was
Construct a probability distribution and prepare a graph for the number of customers
of the office canteen for the 6-day period.
Solution: Compute the probability to each value of the random
variable X.

The probability for each value of X is computed by dividing the number of


customers for each day by the total number of customers for the 6-day period.
Day No. of Probability
Customers (X) P(X)
483
Monday 483 0.15 𝑃 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑦 =
=
Tuesday 651 0.21 0.1532
651
= 3151
0.2066
𝑃 𝑇𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑎𝑦 = 3151
Wednesday 495 0.16 495
𝑃 𝑊𝑒𝑑𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑎𝑦 = 3151 = 0.1570
Thursday 567 0.18
567
Friday 690 0.22 𝑃 𝑇ℎ𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑑𝑎𝑦 = = 0.1799
3151
690
Saturday 265 0.08 𝑃 𝐹𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑦 = = 0.2190
3151
265
Total 3,151 𝑃 𝑆𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑑𝑎𝑦 = = 0.0841
3151
Determine whether the distribution represents
a discrete probability distribution. Explain your
answer.
X 1 5 8 7 9
1. P(X) 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 3 3 3

X 0 2 4 6 8
2. P(X) 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 3 6 6
3. X 1 3 5 7
P(X) 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12

4. A random variable X has the following


probability
X 0 1 2 3 4
distribution:
P(X) 0.06 0.23 ? 0.35 0.05

Find
P(2).
Lesson 1.3
Review:
oillustrate the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a discrete random variables.
ocompute the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a discrete random variables.
osolve problems related to mean, variance,
and standard deviation and interpret the
results.
 The mean of a discrete random variable is
also called the expected value.
 It is the weighted average of all the values
that the random variable would
assume in the long run.
 The mean or expected value is denoted by
𝐸 𝑋 or 𝜇.
 It is computed using the formula:

𝑬 𝑿 or 𝝁
= Σ[𝒙𝑷 𝒙 ]
where:
X – random variable
𝝁 – mean or expected value
x – outcome or value of the random variable
P(x) – probability of the outcome x
A distribution of the number of students who got a
GPA of 1.5 or higher in the last 5 semesters and the
corresponding probabilities is shown below. Find the
mean of the probability distribution.
Number of
Students (X) 6 8 10 12 14

Probability
P(X) 0.12 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.28
Solution
:
Step 1: Construct the probability Step 2: Multiply the value of random
distribution for the random variable variable X by the corresponding
X representing the number of probability.
students who got a GPA of 1.5 or Number of Probability
higher. Students (X) P(X) xP(x)

Number of Probability 6 0.12 0.72


Students (X) P(X)
8 0.22 1.76
6 0.12 10 0.20 2.00
8 0.22 12 0.18 2.16
10 0.20 14 0.28 3.92
12 0.18
14 0.28
Step 3: Add the results obtained in Step 2.
Number of Probability
Students (X) P(X) xP(x)

6 0.12 0.72
The mean obtained is 10.56. Hence, the
8 0.22 1.76
average number of students who obtained
10 0.20 2
a GPA of 1.5 or higher for the past 5
12 0.18 2.16 semesters or more semesters is 10.56.
14 0.28 3.92

Σ [ 𝒙 𝑷(x) ] = 𝟏𝟎.𝟓𝟔
𝝁 = 𝟏𝟎. 𝟓𝟔
A survey conducted on the number of TV units
per household during the past 5 years in a first
subdivision showed the table below. Compute the
mean for the distribution.
Number of
TV Units (X) 2 3 4 5 6

Probability
P(X) 0.15 0.40 0.25 0.12 0.08
Solution:
Step 1: Construct the probability Step 2: Multiply the value of random
distribution for the random variable variable X by the corresponding
X representing the number of TV probability.
units per household. Number of TV Probability
units (X) P(X) xP(x)
Number of TV Probability
units (X) P(X) 2 0.15 0.30
2 0.15 3 0.40 1.20
3 0.40 4 0.25 1.00
4 0.25 5 0.12 0.60
5 0.12 6 0.08 0.48
6 0.08
Step 3: Add the results obtained in Step
2.
Number of TV Probability
units (X) P(X) xP(x)
Thus, the
2 0.15 0.30 expected
3 0.40 1.20 value/mean of the
4 0.25 1.00
5 0.12 0.60 number of
6 0.08 0.48 TV units
per
household for the past 5 years or
longer in the first subdivision is
𝝁 = 𝟑. 𝟓𝟖
3.58.
The report of a weather Number of typhoons
per month X Probability P(X)
bureau on the forecast of the 0 0.15
number of typhoons entering 1 0.35

The country’s area of 2 0.30


3 0.10
responsibility is manifested 4 0.10
in the following distribution.
W
h
a
t
Solution
:
Step 1: Construct the probability Step 2: Multiply the value of random
distribution for the random variable variable X by the corresponding
X representing the number of probability.
typhoon entering the country Number of
month. per typhoon per Probability
P(X) xP(x)
Number of month (X)
typhoon per Probability
month (X) P(X) 0 0.15 0
1 0.35 0.70
0 0.15
2 0.30 0.60
1 0.35
3 0.10 0.30
2 0.30
4 0.10 0.40
3 0.10
4 0.10
Step 3: Add the results obtained in Step 2.
Number of
typhoon per Probability
P(X) xP(x)
month (X)

0 0.15 0 So, the average number of typhoon


1 0.35 0.70 that enters the country per month
2 0.30 0.60 is 1.65.
3 0.10 0.30
4 0.10 0.40

Σ [𝒙𝑷 (𝒙) ] = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟓
𝝁 = 𝟏. 𝟔𝟓
Application
 It is a measure of spread or dispersion. It
measures the variation of the values of a
random variable from the mean.

 The variance of a discrete random variable


is denoted by 𝜎 2 or 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋).
 It is computed using the formula:
𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) or 𝛔𝟐 = Σ [𝒙
−𝝁 𝟐𝑷 𝒙
 Alternative Formula: ]
𝛔𝟐 − 𝝁𝟐
where:
x – outcome = Σ
𝝁 – population mean or expected value
P(x) – probability𝟐 of the outcome x
𝒙𝑷
 It is the square root of the variance.
 The standarddeviation of a discrete
random variable is written as 𝜎.
 It is computed as:

𝝈= Σ 𝒙
−𝝁 𝟐𝑷 𝒙
A survey was conducted to find the number of cars each
household owns in a particular subdivision. The results of
the survey are shown below. Find the variance and
standard deviation for the probability distribution.
Number of
Cars (X) 1 2 3 4

Probability
P(X) 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.10
Solution:
Step 1: Find the expected value.
Step 2: Subtract the expected value from
Number of Probability
Cars (X) P(X) xP(x)
each outcome. Square each difference.
1 0.25 0.25
Number
2 0.35 0.70 of Cars Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝟐
(X)
3 0.30 0.90
4 0.10 0.40 1 0.25 0.25 1 - 2.25 = -1.25 −1.25 2 = 1.5625
2 0.35 0.70 2 - 2.25 = -0.25 −0.25 2 = 0.0625
𝝁 = 𝟐. 𝟐𝟓 3 0.30 0.90 3 - 2.25 = 0.75 0.75 2 = 0.5625
4 0.10 0.40 4 - 2.25 = 1.75 1.75 2 = 3.0625
Step 3: Multiply each square of the difference by
the corresponding probability.

Number
of Cars Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝟐 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷(𝒙)
(X)
1 0.25 0.25 1 - 2.25 = -1.25 −1.25 2 = 1.5625 0.390625
2 0.35 0.70 2 - 2.25 = -0.25 −0.25 2 = 0.0625 0.021875
3 0.30 0.90 3 - 2.25 = 0.75 0.75 2 = 0.5625 0.16875
4 0.10 0.40 4 - 2.25 = 1.75 1.75 2 = 3.0625 0.30625
Step 4: Sum up all the figures obtained in Step 3.

Number
of Cars Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝟐 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷(𝒙)
(X)

1 0.25 0.25 1 - 2.25 = -1.25 −1.25 2 = 1.5625 0.390625


2 0.35 0.70 2 - 2.25 = -0.25 −0.25 2 = 0.0625 0.021875
3 0.30 0.90 3 - 2.25 = 0.75 0.75 2 = 0.5625 0.16875
4 0.10 0.40 4 - 2.25 = 1.75 1.75 2 = 3.0625 0.30625

Σ 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷 𝒙 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟖𝟕𝟓

𝝈𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗
To find the standard deviation, get the square
root of the variance.

𝜎 2 = 0.89
𝜎 = 𝜎2
= 0.89 = 0.943398
𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟒

Thus, the variance (𝝈𝟐) is 0.89 and the standard


deviation (𝝈) is 0.94.
Using the Alternative Formula:
Number
of Cars Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝟐𝑷(𝒙)
𝛔𝟐 = Σ 𝒙𝟐𝑷 𝒙 − 𝝁𝟐
(X)

1 0.25 0.25 1 2 =1 0.25 = 5.95 − 2.25 2


2 0.35 0.70 2 2 =4 1.40 = 5.95 − 5.0625
3 0.30 0.90 3 2 =9 2.70 = 0.8875
4 0.10 0.40 4 2 = 16 1.60 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗
𝝁 = 𝟐. 𝟐𝟓
Σ[𝒙 𝟐 𝑷 𝒙 ] = 𝟓. 𝟗𝟓 𝜎= 𝜎 2 = 0.89
𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟒
A store selling boxes of chocolate candies found that the
probabilities of a customer will buy 0, 1, 2, or 3 boxes of
chocolate candies are shown below. Determine the
variance and standard deviation.
Number of
boxes (X) 0 1 2 3

Probability 1 1 1 1
P(X) 18 2 3 9
Step 2: Subtractthe expectedvalue from
Solution: each outcome. Square each difference.
Step 1: Find the expected value.
Number of Probability Number
Boxes (X) P(X) xP(x) of Boxes Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝟐
(X)
1
0 0
18 1
0 0 0 – 1.5 = -1.5 −1.5 2 = 2.25
1 1 18
1
2 2 1 1
1 1 - 1.5 = -0.5 −0.5 2 = 0.25
1 2 2 2
2
3 3 1 2
2 2 - 1.5 = 0.5 0.5 2 = 0.25
1 1 3 3
3
9 3 1 1
3 3 – 1.5 = 1.5 1.5 2 = 2.25
9 3
𝝁 = 𝟑 𝒐𝒓
𝟐
𝟏. 𝟓
Step 3: Multiply each square of the difference by the
corresponding
probability.

Number
of Boxes Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝟐 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷(𝒙)
(X)
1
0 0 0 – 1.5 = -1.5 −1.5 2 = 2.25 0.125
18
1 1
1 1 - 1.5 = -0.5 −0.5 2 = 0.25 0.125
2 2
1 2
2 2 - 1.5 = 0.5 0.5 2 = 0.25 0.083
3 3
1 1
3 3 – 1.5 = 1.5 1.5 2 = 2.25 0.25
9 3
Step 4: Sum up all the figures obtained in Step 3.
Number
of Boxes Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝟐 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷(𝒙)
(X)
1
0 0 0 – 1.5 = -1.5 −1.5 2 = 2.25 0.125
18
1 1
1 1 - 1.5 = -0.5 −0.5 2 = 0.25 0.125
2 2
1 2
2 2 - 1.5 = 0.5 0.5 2 = 0.25 0.083
3 3
1 1
3 3 – 1.5 = 1.5 1.5 2 = 2.25 0.25
9 3

Σ 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐𝑷 𝒙 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖𝟑

𝝈𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖
To find the standard deviation, get the
square root of the variance.
𝜎 2 = 0.58
𝜎 = 𝜎2
= 0.58 = 0.761577
𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔

Hence, the variance (𝝈𝟐) is 0.58 and the standard


deviation (𝝈) is 0.76.
Using the Alternative Formula:
Number
of Boxes
(X)
Probability
P(X) xP(x) 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝟐𝑷(𝒙) 𝛔𝟐= Σ 𝒙𝟐𝑷 𝒙 − 𝝁𝟐
1
0 0 0 2 =0 0 = 2.83 − 1.5 2
18
1 1 1
= 2.83 − 2.25
1 1 2 =1
2 2 2 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖
1 2 4
2 2 2 =4
3 3 3
1 1 𝜎= 𝜎 2 = 0.58
3 3 2 =9 1
9 3 𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔
𝟑 𝟏𝟕
𝝁= Σ [𝒙 𝟐 𝑷 𝒙 ]=
𝟔
𝒐𝒓 𝟐. 𝟖𝟑
𝟐
𝒐𝒓 𝟏. 𝟓

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