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Network Analysis

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66 views43 pages

Network Analysis

Uploaded by

anu15may05
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

• Project is a series of related jobs usually directed


toward some major output and requiring a
significant period of time to perform

• Project Management are the management


activities of planning, directing, and controlling
resources (people, equipment, material) to meet
the technical, cost, and time constraints of a
project

1
Project Control Charts: Gantt Chart
Vertical
VerticalAxis:
Axis:
Always Horizontal
Horizontalbars
barsused
usedtotodenote
denotelength
length
AlwaysActivities
Activities ofoftime
or
orJobs
Jobs timefor
foreach
eachactivity
activityor
orjob.
job.

Activity 1
Activity 2
Activity 3
Activity 4
Activity 5
Activity 6

Time Horizontal
HorizontalAxis:
Axis: Always
AlwaysTime
Time
2
NETWORK ANALYSIS
PERT / CPM -
•PERT consists of translating the proposed job into a
model by drawing a network of activities involved.
•Evaluating the network & manipulating it to the
extent possible so as to ensure that there will be a
reasonably good chance of achieving objectives within
constraint of time & other resources.
•Using the network to monitor & control the execution
of the job.

3
NETWORK ANALYSIS
• Stages in application of PERT –
• Drawing the network-The purpose of this is to
identify all the important events / activities which
are essential for completion of project & bring out
their inter relationship to satisfy the the
technological sequencing requirements.
• Network analysis – By incorporating the time
required for completing each of the activities in the
network, the project duration as well as the
criticality of the activities are found.
4
NETWORK ANALYSIS
• Resource allocation & scheduling –Based on the
network calculations & assessment of resources
required for each of the activities , the plan is
translated into a time schedule.if it is possible to
expedite the activities by incurring additional cost ,
the economics of doing so are also examined before
finalizing the schedule.
• Project control– This stage calls for periodic
updating of the network amongst the other things to
monitor the progress of the project, & making
necessary changes in schedule to ensure completion
of project on time. 5
NETWORK ANALYSIS
Drawing the network
•Activities & Events
– Events –procurement of bricks completed
– Activity –procure bricks
– Events – preparation of foundation completed
– Activity –prepare foundation
– Events –erection of wall completed
– Activity – erect wall

6
NETWORK ANALYSIS
• TAIL EVENT ACTIVITY HEAD EVENT

• Dummy activities –they are introduced in the


network to preserve the logic. It is denoted by dotted
arrow. It requires zero resources & zero time.

7
NETWORK ANALYSIS
• A project is made up of a sequence of activities
that form a network representing a project
• The path taking longest time through this
network of activities is called the “critical path”
• The critical path provides a wide range of
scheduling information useful in managing a
project
• Critical Path Method (CPM) helps to identify the
critical path(s) in the project networks
8
Prerequisites for Critical Path
Methodology
A project must have:

well-defined jobs or tasks whose completion


marks the end of the project;

independent jobs or tasks;

and tasks that follow a given sequence.

9
Types of Critical Path Methods
• CPM with a Single Time Estimate
– Used when activity times are known with certainty
– Used to determine timing estimates for the project, each
activity in the project, and slack time for activities
• CPM with Three Activity Time Estimates
– Used when activity times are uncertain
– Used to obtain the same information as the Single Time
Estimate model and probability information
• Time-Cost Models
– Used when cost trade-off information is a major consideration
in planning
– Used to determine the least cost in reducing total project time

10
Steps in the CPM with Single Time
Estimate
1. Activity Identification
2. Activity Sequencing and Network
Construction
3. Determine the critical path
– From the critical path all of the project and
activity timing information can be obtained

11
AOA & AON
• AOA – Activity on Arrow
• AON – Activity on Node

12
13
14
Example 1. CPM with Single Time
Estimate
Consider the following consulting project:
Activity Designation Immed. Pred. Time (Weeks)
Assess customer's needs A None 2
Write and submit proposal B A 1
Obtain approval C B 1
Develop service vision and goals D C 2
Train employees E C 5
Quality improvement pilot groups F D, E 5
Write assessment report G F 1

Develop a critical path diagram and determine


the duration of the critical path and slack times
for all activities. 15
Example 1: First draw the network
Act. Imed. Pred. Time

A None 2
B A 1
C B 1
D C 2
E C 5
F D,E 5
D(2)
G F 1

A(2) B(1) C(1) F(5) G(1)

E(5)
16
Example 1: Determine early starts and
early finish times
ES=4
EF=6

ES=0 ES=2 ES=3 D(2)


ES=9 ES=14
EF=2 EF=3 EF=4 EF=14 EF=15

A(2) B(1) C(1) F(5) G(1)


ES=4
EF=9
Hint:
Hint:Start
Startwith
withES=0
ES=0
and
andgo
goforward
forwardininthe
the E(5)
network
networkfrom
fromAAtotoG.
G.
17
Example 1:
Determine late Hint:
Hint:Start
Startwith
withLF=15
LF=15or or
the
thetotal
totaltime
timeof
ofthe
theproject
project
starts and late finish ES=4 and
andgo
gobackward
backwardin inthe
the
times EF=6 network
networkfrom
fromGGtotoA.
A.

ES=0 ES=2 ES=3 D(2)


ES=9 ES=14
EF=2 EF=3 EF=4 LS=7 EF=14 EF=15
LF=9
A(2) B(1) C(1) F(5) G(1)
ES=4
LS=0 LS=2 LS=3 EF=9 LS=9 LS=14
LF=2 LF=3 LF=4 LF=14 LF=15
E(5)

LS=4
LF=9 18
Example 1: Critical Path & Slack
ES=4
Slack=(7-4)=(9-6)= 3 Wks
EF=6

ES=0 ES=2 ES=3 D(2)


ES=9 ES=14
EF=2 EF=3 EF=4 LS=7 EF=14 EF=15
LF=9
A(2) B(1) C(1) F(5) G(1)
ES=4
LS=0 LS=2 LS=3 EF=9 LS=9 LS=14
LF=2 LF=3 LF=4 LF=14 LF=15
E(5)

LS=4
LF=9
Duration = 15 weeks
19
Example 2. CPM with Three Activity Time
Estimates

Immediate
Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A None 3 6 15
B None 2 4 14
C A 6 12 30
D A 2 5 8
E C 5 11 17
F D 3 6 15
G B 3 9 27
H E,F 1 4 7
I G,H 4 19 28
20
Example 2. Expected Time
Calculations
ET(A)=
ET(A)=3+4(6)+15
3+4(6)+15
Immediate Expected 66
Task Predecesors Time
A None 7 ET(A)=42/6=7
ET(A)=42/6=7
B None 5.333
C A 14 Immediate
Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
D A 5 A None 3 6 15
E C 11 B
C
None
A
2
6
4
12
14
30
F D 7 D A 2 5 8
E C 5 11 17
G B 11 F D 3 6 15
H E,F 4 G B 3 9 27
H E,F 1 4 7
I G,H 18 I G,H 4 19 28

Opt.
Opt. Time
Time ++ 4(Most
4(MostLikely
LikelyTime)
Time) ++ Pess.
Pess. Time
Time
Expected
ExpectedTime
Time == 66 21
Example 2. Expected Time
Calculations
Immediate Expected ET(B)=
ET(B)=2+4(4)+14
2+4(4)+14
Task Predecesors Time 66
A None 7
B None 5.333 ET(B)=32/6=5.333
ET(B)=32/6=5.333
C A 14
D A 5 Immediate
E C 11 Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A None 3 6 15
F D 7 B None 2 4 14
G B 11 C
D
A
A
6
2
12
5
30
8
H E,F 4 E C 5 11 17
F D 3 6 15
I G,H 18 G B 3 9 27
H E,F 1 4 7
I G,H 4 19 28

Opt.
Opt. Time
Time ++ 4(Most
4(MostLikely
LikelyTime)
Time) ++ Pess.
Pess. Time
Time
Expected
ExpectedTime
Time == 66 22
Example 2. Expected Time
Calculations
Immediate Expected ET(C)=
ET(C)=6+4(12)+30
6+4(12)+30
Task Predecesors Time
A None 7 66
B None 5.333
C A 14 ET(C)=84/6=14
ET(C)=84/6=14
D A 5
E C 11 Immediate
Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
F D 7 A None 3 6 15
G B 11 B
C
None
A
2
6
4
12
14
30
H E,F 4 D A 2 5 8
E C 5 11 17
I G,H 18 F D 3 6 15
G B 3 9 27
H E,F 1 4 7
I G,H 4 19 28

Opt.
Opt. Time
Time ++ 4(Most
4(MostLikely
LikelyTime)
Time) ++ Pess.
Pess. Time
Time
Expected
ExpectedTime
Time == 66 23
Example 2. Network

Duration = 54 Days
C(14) E(11)

A(7) H(4)
D(5) F(7)

I(18)

B G(11)
(5.333)
24
Z Table
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 25
0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
Example 2. Probability Exercise
What
What isis the
the probability
probability of
of finishing
finishing this
this project
project in
in
less
less than
than 53
53 days?
days?

p(t < D)
D=53
t
TE = 54
DD -- TTEE
ZZ ==

 cpcp
 22

26
Pessim.
Pessim. -- Optim.
Optim.) 22
Activity variance,  = 22
(
Activity variance,  = ( )
66

Task Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Variance


A 3 6 15 4
B 2 4 14
C 6 12 30 16
D 2 5 8
E 5 11 17 4
F 3 6 15
G 3 9 27
H 1 4 7 1
I 4 19 28 16

(Sum the variance along the critical 


  == 4141
 22

path.) 27
56
p(t < D)

t
TE = 54
D=53
D
D -- TTEE 53
53--54
54
ZZ == == == -.156
-.156

 cp
cp
22 41
41

p(Z
p(Z << -.156)
-.156) == .436,
.436, or
or 43.6
43.6 %
% (NORMSDIST(-.156)
(NORMSDIST(-.156)

There
There isis aa 43.6%
43.6% probability
probability that
that this
this project
project will
will be
be
completed
completed in in less
less than
than 53
53 weeks.
weeks. 28
Example 2. Additional Probability Exercise

•• What
What isis the
the probability
probability that
that the
the project
project
duration
duration will
will exceed
exceed 56
56 weeks?
weeks?

29
Example 2. Additional Probability Exercise

•• What
What isis the
the probability
probability that
that the
the project
project
duration
duration will
will exceed
exceed 56
56 weeks?
weeks?
D
D -- TTEE 56 56--54
54
ZZ == =
22 =
== .312
.312

 cp
 cp
41
41

p(Z
p(Z >> .312)
.312) == .378,
.378, or
or 37.8
37.8 %
% (1-NORMSDIST(.312))
(1-NORMSDIST(.312))
30
CONCEPTS OF FLOATS & SLACK
• Slack is a freedom for scheduling or to start any
event. It is always associated with an Event.
• Float is always associated with activity.
• The maximum amount by which the duration of an
activity can be increased without increasing the total
duration of entire project is known as Total Float.
• Presence of float signifies under utilization of the
resources & indicates the points of inherent
flexibility in the project / process.
31
CONCEPTS OF FLOATS & SLACK
• TOTAL FLOAT = ( LFT OF HEAD EVENT -- EST OF
TAIL EVENT ) -- DURATION OF ACTIVITY

OR

TOTAL FLOAT = LFT - EFT

OR

TOTAL FLOAT = LST - EST

32
CONCEPTS OF FLOATS & SLACK
• Free Float – It is that time by which an activity can be
rescheduled without affecting the succeeding activity.
Following formulas Considering ‘AOA’ -
• Free Float = Total Float – Slack Time of Head Event
• Independent Float – The time by which an activity
can be rescheduled without affecting both preceding
& succeeding activities.
• Independent Float = Free Float – Slack Time of Tail
Event
• Total Float & Free Float can not be negative.
Independent Float can be negative. 33
CONCEPTS OF FLOATS & SLACK
Following formulas Considering ‘AON’ –
Total Float (i, j) = LOT (j) – EOT (i) - d (ij)
Free Float (i, j) = EOT (j) – EOT (i) - d (i,j)
Independent Float (i, j) = EOT (j) – LOT (i) – d (i, j)
Wherein
EOT – Earliest Occurrence Time
LOT – Latest Occurrence Time
d – Duration of Activity (i,j)
i – Preceding Node / Event
j - Succeeding Node / Event 34
CONCEPTS OF FLOATS & SLACK
TOTAL FLOAT

NEGATIVE ZERO POSITIVE


RESOURCES
RESOURCES
AT
ARE BARELY
DISPOSAL
ADEQUATE
ARE NOT
TO RESOURCES
ADEQUATE
INDICATION COMPLETE ARE
TO FINISH
THE ACTIVITY SURPLUS.
THE
I.E. THE
ACTIVITY IN
ACTIVITY IS
DESIRED
CRITICAL.
TIME.

THE
SURPLUS
GENERATE RESOURCES
EXTRA CAN BE
RESOURCES THE ACTIVITY ALLOCATED
MEASURES
OR CRASH CAN NOT BE ELSE WHERE
REQUIRED
THE DELAYED. OR THE
CRITICAL ACTIVITY
PATH. CAN BE
DELAYED IN
35
EMERGENCY.
Resource Allocation
• One of the main problems faced by project manager
is Resource Allocation
• Identify Critical Path thro’ Network Diagramme
• For completing critical activities in time, there should
not be any resource constraint
• Men, Material and Money are three resources reqd.
for any activity
• The job of the project manager is to plan & allocate
the resources for the different activities so that the
resource utilization is optimized
• A project manager frequently comes across resource
constraint 36
Resource Allocation
• With regard to resource constraints, a project
manager may face one of the following two
situations –
– Resource Levelling
– Resource Smoothing

37
Resource Levelling
Resource Levelling –
•Project should be completed by a specified due-date
•Project completion time is the constraint
•A Project Manager often comes across mis-match
between the availability of resources & the
requirements of resources
•This means that there are surplus resources
available on some days & there is shortage of
resources on some other days
•Since personal requirement varies from day to day,
optimum utilization should be ensured 38
Resource Levelling
Resource Levelling –
•The objective of the project manager is to level as
far as possible the demand for resources
throughout the project execution time

39
Resource Levelling
Resource Levelling
Problem 1

40
Resource Levelling
Resource Levelling
Problem 2

41
Resource Smoothing
• Nature of problem under this head is that there is no
constraint on project completion time ( that does not
mean that project duration can be stretched too far,
but is extended to the minimum possible extent)
• The constraint is only wrt availability of resources
• Some simple rules in this regard are
– Resources are to be allocated serially in time
– When more jobs compete for same resources, preference
to be given to the jobs on critical path or jobs with least
float (Non critical jobs may be postponed)
– Jobs once started should continue till they are finished
– Resource constraint should not be violated at any stage
Resource Smoothing
Resource Smoothing
Problem 1

Maximum available manpower is only 7 per day


43

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