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CHAPTER 6. Introduction To Hypothesis Testing

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9 views20 pages

CHAPTER 6. Introduction To Hypothesis Testing

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Diệp Anh Hà Nguyễn
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Chapter 6

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing


Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing…
A criminal trial is an example of hypothesis testing without
the statistics.
In a trial a jury must decide between two hypotheses. The
null hypothesis is
H0: The defendant is innocent

The alternative hypothesis or research hypothesis is


HA: The defendant is guilty

The jury does not know which hypothesis is true. They must
make a decision on the basis of evidence presented.
Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing…
 In the language of statistics convicting the defendant is called
rejecting the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative
hypothesis. That is, the jury is saying that there is enough
evidence to conclude that the defendant is guilty (i.e., there is
enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis).
Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing…
There are two possible errors.
A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis.
That is, a Type I error occurs when the jury convicts an
innocent person. We would want the probability of this type
of error to be very small for a criminal trial where a
conviction results in the death penalty.

P(Type I error) =  [usually 0.05 or 0.01]


Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing…
A Type II error occurs when we fail to reject a false null
hypothesis. That occurs when a guilty defendant is
acquitted.

In practice, this type of error is by far the most serious


mistake we normally make. For example, if we test the
hypothesis that the amount of medication in a heart pill is
equal to a value which will cure your heart problem and
“accept the null hypothesis that the amount is ok”. Later
on we find out that the average amount is WAY too large
and people die from “too much medication” [I wish we had
rejected the hypothesis and threw the pills in the trash can],
it’s too late because we shipped the pills to the public.
Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing…
The probability of a Type I error is denoted as α.
The probability of a type II error is β.

The two probabilities are inversely related. Decreasing one


increases the other, for a fixed sample size.

In other words, you can’t have  and β both real small for
any old sample size. You may have to take a much larger
sample size, or in the court example, you need much more
evidence.
Types of Errors…
 A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis
(i.e. Reject H0 when it is TRUE)
H0 T F

Reject I

Reject II

 A Type II error occurs when we fail to reject a false null


hypothesis (i.e. Do NOT reject H0 when it is FALSE)
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing…
To consider the average or mean demand for computers
during assembly lead time, our operations manager wants to
know whether the mean is different from 350 units. In other
words, someone is claiming that the mean time is 350 units
and we want to check this claim out to see if it appears
reasonable.
We can rephrase this request into a test of the hypothesis:

H0: = 350 units


Thus, our research hypothesis becomes:
HA: ≠ 350 units
The standard deviation σ is to be 75, the sample size n is 25,
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing…
The testing procedure begins with the assumption that
the null hypothesis H0 is true.

Thus, until we have further statistical evidence, we will


assume:
H0: = 350 units (assumed to be TRUE)
The next step will be to determine the sampling distribution
 350
of the sample mean:X
Z  N  0,1
/ n
Unstandardized Test Statistic Approach
This is a two-sided test, so we have one of two possible regions of
rejection.
The sample mean
is located in the
95% region, so
we fail to reject
the null
hypotheses.
2. Standardized Test Statistic Approach

The z-score is in the


95% region, so we
fail to reject the null
hypotheses.
The p-value approach

“The p-value is
low, so let it go (we
fail to reject the
null hypotheses)”
Concepts of Hypothesis Testing
The two possible decisions that can be made:

Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the


alternative hypothesis
(also stated as: reject the null hypothesis in favor of the
alternative)

Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the


alternative hypothesis
(also stated as: failing to reject the null hypothesis in favor of
the alternative)
NOTE: we do not say that we accept the null hypothesis.
Conclusions of a Test of Hypothesis…
If we reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that there is
enough evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is
true.

If we fail to reject the null hypothesis, we conclude that


there is not enough statistical evidence to infer that the
alternative hypothesis is true. This does not mean that we
have proven that the null hypothesis is true!

Keep in mind that committing a Type I error OR a Type


II error can be VERY bad depending on the problem.
Example… The Rejection Region
The rejection region is a range of values such that if
the test statistic falls into that range, we decide to
reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative
hypothesis.

is the critical value of to reject H0.


Example… The Big Picture…

=175.34
=178
Reject H0 in favor of
One tail test with rejection region on right

One tail test with rejection region on left

The rejection region will be in the left tail.


Two tail test with rejection region in both tails

The rejection region is split equally between the two


tails.

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