For the following probability distribution find the Expected value, E(X)

and the variance, Var (X)

x 20 40 60 80 100
P(X=x) 0.1 0.15 a 0.2 0.05

a = 1-(0.1+0.15+0.2+0.05)
x 20 40 60 80 100
P(X=x) 0.1 0.15 0.5 0.2 0.05
xP(X=x) 2 6 30 16 5

ΣxP(X=x) = 59 E(X) = 59

x2P(X=x) 40 240 1800 1280 500

Σx2P(X=x) = 3860 Var(X) = Σx2P(X=x) – E(X)2
3860-592 = 379
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 Probability using the Binomial Distribution

Binomial Distribution models situations which:

• have 2 outcomes that are mutually exclusive
binomial
• are independent events
• have a finite number of events
• probabilities do not change with each successive event

It is used for determining the overall outcome of successive events

where there is a finite number of trials.

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 Example:
Throwing a bent coin 3 times where P(H) = 1/5
Find the probability of gaining 2 heads 3

1
/5 H HHH 1
 
5
H 4
/5
1
/5 1  4
2

T HHT  5    5 
H 1  4
2
4
/5 1
/5 H HTH  5    5 
1
/5
T 4
/5 2
1  4
HTT   
T 5 5
1
/5 H THH 2
1  4
   
4
/5 H
5  5
1
/5 4
/5 1  4
2

T THT   
T 5  5
2
/5 1  4
4
/5 1
H TTH   
5  5
T 4
/5 4
3

 
T TTT 5 [email protected]
 3
3 1
HHH 1
  P(3 Heads) = 1 x  5 
5
2
1  4
2
1  4
P(2 Heads) = 3 x  5    5 
HHT    
5  5
2
2
1  4 1 4
HTH     P(2 Tails) =3 x   
5  5 5 5
3
2
4
1  4
   P(3 Tails) =1 x  
HTT 5  5 5
THH 2
1  4
   
5  5 Notice the pattern 1 3 3 1
2
1  4
THT   
5  5
2
1  4
TTH   
5  5
3
4
 
TTT 5

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 If the coin was thrown 4 times it would look like this:
4
1
P(4 Heads) = 1 x  5 
3
1  4
P(3 Heads) = 4 x    
5  5

2 2
1 4
P(2 Heads) =6 x    
5  5
3
1 4
P(1 Heads) =4 x    
5  5
4

P(0 Heads) =1 x  4 
5

The number of ways of achieving a particular outcome can be

calculated as:
n
Cx
Where n is the number of trials and x is the number of required
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Example:
Using a biased coin where P(H) = 0.55 what is the probability of
achieving 6 heads when the coin is thrown 8 times.
8
C6 x 0.556 x 0.452 = 0.157
In general:
P(X=x) = nCx x pxq(n-x)

Where n = number of trials

p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
x = number of required successes
A binomial distribution can be described as:

P(X=x) ~B(n,p)

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Example:
A card is to be drawn from a well shuffled pack and then replaced.
This is repeated 10 times.
What is the probability of drawing an Ace 6 times.
6 4
 1   12 
10
C6 x     = 3.159 x 10-5
 13   13 

What is the probability of drawing an Ace at least twice.

1 – P(X<2) = 1 – (P(X=0)+P(X=1))
0 10 1 9
 1   12   1   12 
1 – ( 10C0 x     + 10C1 x     )
13
   13   13   13 

= 0.177

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Example:
For the binomial distribution P(X=x) ~B(8,¼)
Find P(X=6)
6 2
1 3
8
C6 x     = 0.00385
4 4

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Now do these:
A random variable has a binomial probability distribution with
n = 10 and p = 0.3
Find: P(X=x) ~B(10,0.3)
a)P(X=0) 10
C0 x 0.710 = 0.0282
1- P(X=9)+P(X=10)
b)P(X<9)
1- 10C10 x 0.310 + 10C9 x 0.39 x 0.7 = 0.9999
A random variable has a binomial probability distribution with
n = 20 and p = 0.6
Find: P(X=x) ~B(20,0.6)
a)P(X=10) 20
C10 x 0.610 x 0.410 = 0.117

b)P(X>18) P(X=19)+P(X=20)
20
C19 x 0.619 x 0.4 + 20C20 x 0.620 = 0.000524
c) P(12<X<15) P(X=13)+P(X=14)
20
C13 x 0.613 x 0.47 + 20C14 x 0.614 x 0.46 = 0.29
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