Migration Analysis

Alfred Otieno
Population Studies and Research Institute
University of Nairobi
Introduction cont’d
 In this part of the workshop we look
at sources and measurement of net
migration,
 We will cover:
 Definitions and key concepts
 Sources of migration data
 Indirect and direct measurement of
internal migration for projection
Key Concepts and Definitions
 Migration
 Form of spatial mobility involving change
of usual residence between clearly
defined geographical units
 Some change of residence are temporary
or short time and do not involve change
of usual residence e.g. visitation, work,
business
 Other changes in residence may
permanent but short distance
Types of migration
 International – Movement across national
boundaries
 Emigration- moving out
 Immigration – coming in from another country
 Note also distinction of by permanent and
temporary, legal vs illegal
 Internal –movement within boundaries of a
country
 Other types classification of internal migration –
rural to rural, rural to urban, urban – rural and
urban to urban
 Rationale

•Often considered the least important component of

population change in some countries,
•While in others migration may be as important as, or
more important than, fertility and mortality in determining
population change.
•These are countries are those with substantial circular
labor migration flows (whether as sending or host
country) or longer term flows.
•They may be destination countries like the U.S. or
major migrant-origin countries like Iran, or
•both sending and receiving countries, like Thailand.
 For countries with substantial net
international migration, the size,
composition, growth and distribution of
population is affected by that migration.
 Future population growth and
characteristics are also affected.
 For sub-national projections, migration
plays an especially important role in
defining future population distribution.
Measuring Migration
The utility of migration data to the
demographer depends on the
question(s) to be answered, the type
of migration data available, and the
representativeness of those data.
Measuring International Migration
 Migration data are available from censuses (from
questions about:
 Birthplace,
 Residence at a previous date, (or place of previous
residence) and
 Duration of residence
 Arrivals and departures data published in statistical
yearbooks, as estimates from dedicated statistical
databases and,
 Population registers ( only few countries)
 Refugee statistics are available from the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
and other sources.
Types of Migration Data for Direct
Estimation Kenyan Censuses
Method
Type Description Questions
Lifetime Change of Place of birth Cross tab place
(Kenya P-18) residence since and place of of birth by place
birth current of current
residence only residence
Migration during Change of Where was Cross tab place
past 12 months residence during person living 12 current
or another fixed past year months ago? residence with
reference period place of
(Kenya P-19) residence 12
months ago
Types of Migration Data for Direct
Estimation
Methodology
Type Description Questions
Duration of Focus on 1.How long Identify non
residence latest lived in movers and
(Kenya P-20 migration current movers;
and P21) only residence, cross
and tabulate for
Least used
in the last 2.Previous each region
residence by age and
2009 and
1999 sex movers
censuses; by duration
of residence
first asked in
1999
Types of Migration Data for Direct
Estimation
Type Strengths and weaknesses

Lifetime Provides some idea of flows, but truly useful only

with multiple censuses and then only by calculating
differences in cohort or subpopulation size after
adjusting for mortality and under enumeration. Not
a good substitute for migration measured using a
question on a fixed reference period.

Migration during Excellent measure but migration may be

past 12 months exaggerated by recent events.

Migration during Excellent measure providing picture of movement

past 5 years over past 5 years. A major weakness of this and
other measures is its asymmetry for measuring
international migration. Out-migrants are typically
not counted well.
Measuring international migration
(indirect estimation)
 Net international migration also can
be estimated as a residual, comparing
two foreign born populations by age
and sex from successive censuses.
Ignoring outflow of the citizen
(Kenya-born) population
 Measuring international migration
(indirect estimation)
 Expecte Implied
Provincial d migrants =
population Intercensal populati Expected
by age and life table on by minus
sex survival = age and reported
ratios sex population
0-4 by age and
5-9 S(x+5,x)/  10-14 sex
… S(x+5,x)  15-19 10-14
75-80
80+
 … 15-19
 75-80 …
75-80
 80+
80+
 Measuring international migration
(indirect estimation)
Expected Implied
population migrants =
Intercensal by age and Expected
Provincial
life table = sex minus
population survival reported
by age and ratios 10-14 population
sex
X 15-19 by age and
S(x+5,x)/ … sex
0-4 S(x+5,x) 75-80
5-9
80+ 10-14
…
15-19
75-80
…
80+
75-80
80+
Measuring internal migration
(indirect estimation
Indirectly measuring internal migration
 Census survival ratio method
(CSRMIG.xls) – PASEX Program
 Life table survival ratio method
 Forward survival
 Reverse survival
 Composite
 Composite method
Census Survival Ratio Method
(Schematic
Provincial National Expected Implied
population census provincial migrants =
by age and survival population Expected
sex ratios by age and minus
sex reported
0-4 10-14/0-4 provincial
5-9 15-19/5-9 10-14 population
… … 15-19 by age and
75-80 … sex
80+ 80+/70+ 75-80
80+ 10-14
15-19
…
75-80
80+
 Composite Survival Ratio Method
(Schematic)
Provincial National Ratio of Expected Implied
population census provincial to provincial migrants =
by age and survival national life population Expected
sex ratios table by age and minus
survival sex reported
0-4 X 10-14/0-4 X ratios = provincial
5-9 15-19/5-9 10-14 population
… … S(x+5,x,P)/ 15-19 by age and
75-80 S(x+5,x,N) … sex
80+ 80+/70+ 75-80
80+ 10-14
15-19
…
75-80
80+
Conclusion