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1stmid Probability

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21 views43 pages

1stmid Probability

Uploaded by

galiluserxaxa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Albert V.

De Vera

INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Statistics

 It is a branch of science that deals


with the collection, presentation,
analysis, and interpretation of data.
Two Fields of Statistics

1. Applied Statistics
 is concerned with the procedures and techniques
used in the collection, presentation, organization,
analysis, and interpretation of data.
2. Mathematical Statistics or Theoretical
Statistics
 is concerned with the development of mathematical
foundations of the method used in applied
statistics.
Major Areas of Applied Statistics
1. Descriptive Statistics
is concerned with collecting, describing,
and analyzing the subset of data without
drawing conclusions or inference about
the set of data.
2. Inferential Statistics
is concerned with the analysis of the
subset of data leading to predictions or
inferences about the said set of data.
Population
 Population is the entire set from which sample is
given.

e.g. All Grade 9 students enrolled in Mother Goose

 The numerical measure that describe the population of


interest under study is called parameter.

e.g. The average height of all Grade 9 students enrolled in


Mother Goose is 1.60 meters.
Sample
 Sample refers to a portion of the population that is
used for study.
e.g. 20 students of Mother Goose were randomly selected
for a survey.

 The numerical measure that describe the sample of


interest under study is called statistic.
e.g. The average weight of 20 randomly selected students
of Mother Goose is 50 kilograms.
7

Basic Concepts
of Probability
• Explain the concepts of

Learning
random experiment,
sample space, and event.

Outcomes • Find the probability of an


event
Random Experiment
A random experiment is an
action or process that leads to
one of several possible
outcomes.
Random Experiment
A random experiment is an action or process that
leads to one of several possible outcomes.

a. Collectively exhaustive means that the possible


outcomes must be included.

b. Mutually exclusive means that no outcomes can


occur at the same time.
Tossing a Coin
Rolling a Die
Standard Deck of Cards
Sample Space
A sample space () of a random
experiment is the list of all possible
outcomes of that experiment.
Event
An event is any subset of the sample space
consisting of one or more sample points to which a
probability is assigned.
Probability of an Event
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood of the
occurrence of an event. The probability of the occurrence of an
event has the following properties.
1.

2. or

3.
Classical Approach
• The classical approach of assigning the probability of an event is
used to determine the probability associated with games of
chance.

where: number of occurrence of E in the sample space


cardinality of sample space
Probability of an Event
Example 1: Find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads when
tossing a coin twice.
Probability of an Event
Example 2: Find the probability of drawing a face card from a
standard deck of cards.
Probability of an Event
Example 3. A jar contains 6 pink, 5 yellow, and 4 green marbles. If one
marble is drawn randomly, what is the probability that:

a. the marble drawn is pink? c. the marble drawn is green?

b. the marble drawn is yellow? d. the marble drawn is not yellow?


Empirical Approach
• The relative frequency approach is the method of finding the probability that
is based from cumulated historical data or found through observation and
not from theories.

where: the total number of times the event occurred


the total number of opportunities for the event to occur
Empirical Approach
Example 1: In his entire career, a certain PBA player hooped 4,503 out of 6,575 free
throws. What is the probability that his next free throw will be successful?

Example 2: If you cast a fair die 25 times and 8 of them result is a “6,” what is the
empirical probability observed in this event?
Empirical Approach
Example 3: Mr. X asked his students to choose a color from the rainbow spectrum. The
results are tabulated below.

What is the probability that the students will:


No. of a. choose red?
Color
Students
Red 10 b. choose yellow?
Orange 15
c. choose blue?
Yellow 20
Green 22 d. not choose indigo
Blue 25
e. not choose violet
Indigo 10
Violet 5
Counting Techniques
• Fundamental Counting Principle. In a sequence of events, the
total possible number of ways all events can be performed is the
product of possible number of ways each individual event can be
performed.

1. Permutation is an arrangement of objects without repetition and


where order is important.

where: the total number of objects


the size of each permutation
Counting Techniques
2. Combination is an arrangement of objects without repetition and
where order is not important.

where: the total number of objects


the size of each combination
COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
Permutation and Combination
PERMUTATION
 A permutation is an arrangement of objects without repetition and where order
is important.

where:

𝑛! the total number of

𝑃
𝑛 𝑟 =𝑃 ( 𝑛,𝑟 ) = objects

( 𝑛−𝑟 ) ! the size of each


permutation
COMBINATION
 A combination is an arrangement of objects without repetition and where order
is not important.

where:

𝑛! the total number of

𝐶
𝑛 𝑟 =𝐶 ( 𝑛,𝑟 ) = objects

( 𝑛−𝑟 ) !𝑟 ! the size of each


permutation
Permutation Combination
 Is the arrangement of object in which  Is an arrangement of n objects with no
order is important. repetitions and the order is NOT important

Given 4 letters P, Q, R, S. Take 3 letters at a time

PQR PQS PRS


QRS
PRQ PSQ PSR
QSR
QRP QSP RSP
RSQ
QPR QPS RPS
STATE WHETHER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS A
COMBINATION OR PERMUTATION.
Permutation 1. Arrangement of 10 people in a row.
Combination 2. A committee of 5 persons will be chosen from a group of 7 persons.
Permutation 3. A group of 45 people are going to run a race. The top three runners will ern
gold, silver, and bronze medal.
Permutation 4. A team of basketball players needs to choose a captain and a co-captain.
5. A hand of 13 cards having exactly 10 spades drawn from a deck of cards.
Combination
6. There are 45 applicants for three Computer Programmer position.
7. There are 110 people at the meeting. They each shake hands with every one
Combination
else.
Combination
8. Arrangement of 8 people at a round table.

Permutation
EXAMPLE:
1. Arrangement of 10 people in a row.
2. Arrangement of 8 people at a round table.
3. There are 110 people at the meeting. They each shake hands with every one
else. How many shake hands is possible?
4. How many ways can you select a different meal if the menu offers a choice
of 4 appetizers, 9 entrees, 3 desserts and 12 drinks?
Compound Events

Compound events
consist of two or more
events.
33

Addition and
Multiplication
Rule of Probability
Addition Rule of Probability

Mutually Exclusive Events


 are those events which do not have
any sample point in common.
 this is characterized by the
conjunction “or”.

where: probability of event A


probability of event
Addition Rule of Probability

Example:
1. What is the probability of getting at least one
head in tossing a coin twice or getting a “5” in
casting a die once.

2. What is the probability of getting “4” or “5” as


the sum of the results in casting a pair of dice?
Addition Rule of Probability
Example:
3. A box of 4 blue marbles, 3 green marbles, and
5 red marbles. If a marble is drawn at random,
what is the probability of drawing:
a. a red marble or green marble?
b. a blue marble or a red marble?
c. a marble that is not red?
d. a marble that is not yellow
Addition Rule of Probability
Example:
4. The students of quantitative research conduct a survey to 100
graduating senior High School students. 54 of these students like
accountancy, 69 like marketing and 35 like both accountancy and
marketing. If one student is chosen at random, what is the probability
that:
a. The student like accountancy or marketing?
b. The student did not like either of these subjects?
c. The student likes marketing but not accountancy?
Addition Rule of Probability

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events


 are events that have at least one
common element or point of
intersection
 this is characterized by the
conjunction “or”.

where: probability of event A


probability of event
probability of intersection
Addition Rule of Probability
Example:
1. What is the probability of drawing a heart (H) or a king (K)
from a standard deck of cards?
2. What is the probability of drawing a black card or a eight from
a standard deck of cards?
3. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled ordinary deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is
either a heart or a face card?
Generalized Multiplication Rule

 Two events are said to be independent events if the


occurrence or non-occurrence of one event give no
information about the likeness of the occurrence of others.
 this is characterized by the conjunction “and”.

where: probability of event A


probability of event
Generalized Multiplication Rule
Example:
1. Two cards are drawn in succession with replacement. What is
the probability of drawing an ace (A) of the first draw and face
card (F) on the second draw?
2. Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement in a
bowl containing 5 red, 4 blue, and 3 yellow. What is the
probability that the
a. first is yellow and blue in the second draw
b. first draw is red or yellow, and the second draw is blue
Generalized Multiplication Rule
Example:
3. Given that is and is and event and are independent events,
find:
a.
b.
c.
Thank
you

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