• The flood prediction system predicts flood to reduce risk and
minimize the loss of human lives. • It majorly uses linear regression. • It provides prediction based on dataset of rainfall and river volume. PROBLEM STATEMENT
• In Nepal, floods cause hundreds of deaths each year and average
annual economic losses exceeding USD 140 Million. • Without comprehensive flood protection or appropriate risk- sensitive planning, the damages associated with floods are likely to increase in the coming years. • Developing a flood prediction system will help us to know about flood and take effective precautions to reduce loss of lives, resources and so on. OBJECTIVES
• To develop a system that can predict the occurrence of flood.
SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS Scope: • This system is relatively low-cost and can be successfully deployed across the country. • This system has a scope of being as a flood forecasting system for Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Limitations: • Inaccurate prediction may lead to fear among people causing unnecessary anxieties. REQUIREMENT ANALYSIS Functional Requirements based on Use Case diagram: • Input : Get input from user • Use Dataset : Use dataset for training • Model training : Train model using linear regression • Predicted Values : Predict the values • Predictions : Provide prediction to user REQUIREMENT ANALYSIS Non-functional Requirements: • Processing of the request should be done in 5 sec from the time of request. • This system should be easy to use, understand and navigated by a user. • This system should be designed in such a way that it is easy to maintain and upgrade over time. • This system should be able to easily integrate with other similar type of systems. WORKING MECHANISM
• User inputs data
• Data are preprocessed • Data are extracted from dataset • Data are trained, analyzed and tested • Flood is predicted SYSTEM DESIGN Activity Diagram: • The left most section is for system where the system use dataset, train the model and predict the values required. • The rightmost section is for user where user enters the input and get the predictions. SYSTEM DESIGN Flowchart SYSTEM DESIGN Sequence Diagram: ALGORITHM DETAILS Linear Regression: Linear Regression is an algorithm that provides a linear relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable to predict the outcome of future events. It is a statistical method used in data science and machine learning for predictive analysis. In the above figure, X-axis = Independent variable Y-axis = Output / dependent variable IMPLEMENTATION Tools Used: • Visual Studio Code • Front-end tools: HTML, CSS, JavaScript • Back-end tools: Advanced Python along with some packages like Pandas, Numpy, Scikit-Learn etc. • Django was used for integrating frontend and backend. IMPLEMENTATION Dataset Used: • Data were provided by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The data sets span the years 2011 to 2019. • The Bagmati River was included in the river dataset. • The rainfall dataset consisted of three stations: Khokana, Manohara, and Khumaltar. SYSTEM TESTING RESULT ANALYSIS Total datasets were split into training sets and testing sets in the ratio 4:1. Following results were found on testing accuracy of algorithm on the given training datasets. • Accuracy on testing data: 86.1% • Accuracy on training data: 90% CONCLUSION • The current state of ML modeling for flood prediction is quite young and in the early stage of advancement. • The learning models were trained and parameter-tuned to obtain optimal accuracy. REFERENCES • [1] Pirlo,.C. Amir Mosavi, "Flood Prediction Using Machine Learning Models," Research Gate, Trondheim, Norway , 2018. • [2] V. Bellos and G. Tsakiris, "Total Accumulative Overflow," Seoul, 2012. • [3] G. Regan. F. Jack. M. Lyon, "Early warning system," in International Journal of Computer Applications , 2001. • [4] Morgan.B. Richard. G. Freddy.R. G. Cruz, "Flood Prediction Using MultiLayer ANN," US, 2018. • [5] Kurt.H. Shawn. Robin. A. Franky. A. Ruslan, "Multiple Input Single Output (MISO) ARX and ARMAX model of flood prediction system," Pahang, 2017. • [6] A. Hernandez, "SEMANTIC SCHOLAR," 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Developing-a-Flood-Risk-Assessment- Using-Support-A-Opella-Hernandez/ 39651c2a24a734f0977f770957163fd6192a6c41. THANK YOU