Testing of Hypothesis

By: Basharat Mahmood

Department of Computer Science,
COMSATS University Islamabad, Pakistan.
Outline

 Introduction to testing of hypothesis

 Testing of Hypothesis about Population Mean
 Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population Means
 Testing of Hypothesis about Population Proportion
1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis

 Often, the problem confronting the scientist or engineer is not the

estimation of a population parameter, but rather the formation of a
data-based decision procedure that can produce a conclusion about
some scientific system
 a medical researcher may decide on the basis of experimental evidence whether co ffee
drinking increases the risk of cancer in humans
 an engineer might have to decide on the basis of sample data whether there is a
difference between the accuracy of two kinds of gauges
1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis …

• The field of statistical inference consists of those methods used to

make decisions or draw conclusions about a population
• These methods utilize the information contained in a sample from
the population in drawing conclusions
1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis …

• A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or conjecture concerning

one or more populations
• we take a random sample from the population of interest
• use the data contained in this sample to provide evidence that either
supports or does not support the hypothesis
• rejection of a hypothesis implies that the sample evidence refutes it
 1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis …
Basic Terminology
• Null Hypothesis; refers to any hypothesis we wish to test and is denoted by
• Alternative Hypothesis: opposite of what is stated in the null hypothesis and is
denoted by
• For example, assume that a radio station selects the music it plays based on the assumption that the average
age of its listening audience is 30 years then
: μ = 30 and : μ ≠ 30
 Two-tailed : μ = 30 and : μ ≠ 30
 One-tailed : : μ = 30 and : μ > 30 or : μ = 30 and : μ < 30
 1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis …
Basic Terminology
 Type I Error: Occurs if the null hypothesis is rejected when it is in fact true.
 The probability of type I error ( α ) is also called the level of significance.
 Type II Error: Occurs if the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is in fact
false.
 The probability of type II error is denoted by β
 1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis …

Testing of Hypothesis Processes

 State the null and alternative hypotheses.
 Choose a fixed significance level .
 Choose an appropriate test statistic and establish the critical region based on
.
 Reject H0 if the computed test statistic is in the critical region. Otherwise, do
not reject.
 Draw scientific or engineering conclusions.
 1. Introduction to testing of hypothesis …

Testing of Hypothesis (p-value approach)

 State null and alternative hypotheses.
 Choose an appropriate test statistic.
 Compute the P-value based on the computed value of the test statistic.
 Use judgment based on the P-value and knowledge of the scientific system
2. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Mean
 Testing about population mean ()
 Test statistic to be used
()
t ()
 Level of significance: the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the null
hypothesis is true (type-I error), denoted by
 Rejection Region : Reject if
One-tailed (>) :
One-tailed (<):
Tow-tailed (): or
2. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Mean …
P-value approach
 Calculating p-value:
One-tailed (>): = p-value
One-tailed (<): =p-value
Tow-tailed (): 2= p-value
 Decision: Reject if p-value
2. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Mean …
Example 1: In a research report, Richard H. Weindruch of the UCLA Medical School claims
that mice with an average life span of 32 months will live to be about 40 months old when
40% of the calories in their diet are replaced by vitamins and protein. Is there any reason to
believe that μ<40 if 64 mice that are placed on this diet have an average life of 38 months with
a standard deviation of 5.8 months?
2. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Mean …
Example 2: Does the evidence support the idea that the average lecture consists of 3000 words
if a random sample of the lectures of 16 professors had a mean of 3472 words, given the
population standard deviation is 500 words? Use = 0.01. Assume that lecture lengths are
approximately normally distributed.
2. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Mean …
Example 3: The Edison Electric Institute has published figures on the number of kilowatt
hours used annually by various home appliances. It is claimed that a vacuum cleaner uses an
average of 46 kilowatt hours per year. If a random sample of 12 homes included in a planned
study indicates that vacuum cleaners use an average of 42 kilowatt hours per year with a
standard deviation of 11.9 kilowatt hours, does this suggest at the 0.05 level of significance
that vacuum cleaners use, on average, less than 46 kilowatt hours annually? Assume the
population of kilowatt hours to be normal.
 3. Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population
Means
 Test statistic to be used
 )
 ()
 t ()

and
 3. Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population
Means …
 Test statistic to be used
 t ()

 t ()
 3. Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population
Means …
Example 4: A random sample of size n1 = 25, taken from a normal population with a
standard deviation σ1 =5 .2, has a mean = 81. A second random sample of size n2 = 36,
taken from a different normal population with a standard deviation σ2 =3 .4, has a mean
= 76. Test the hypothesis that μ1 = μ2 against the alternative, μ1
μ2.
 3. Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population
Means …
Example 5: A manufacturer claims that the average tensile strength of thread A
exceeds the average tensile strength of thread B by at least 12 kilograms. To test this
claim, 50 pieces of each type of thread were tested under similar conditions. Type A
thread had an average tensile strength of 86.7 kilograms with a standard deviation of
6.28 kilograms, while type B thread had an average tensile strength of 77.8 kilograms
with a standard deviation of 5.61 kilograms. Test the manufacturer’s claim using a 0.05
level of significance.
 3. Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population
Means …
Example 6: A study was conducted to see if increasing the substrate concentration has
an appreciable effect on the velocity of a chemical reaction. With a substrate
concentration of 1.5 moles per liter, the reaction was run 15 times, with an average
velocity of 7.5 micromoles per 30 minutes and a standard deviation of 1.5. With a
substrate concentration of 2.0 moles per liter, 12 runs were made, yielding an average
velocity of 8.8 micromoles per 30 minutes and a sample standard deviation of 1.2. Is
there any reason to believe that this increase in substrate concentration causes an
increase in the mean velocity of the reaction of more than 0.5 micromole per 30
minutes? Use a 0.01 level of significance and assume the populations to be
approximately normally distributed with equal variances.
 3. Testing of Hypothesis about Two Population
Means …
Example 7: Five samples of a ferrous-type substance were used to determine if there is
a difference between a laboratory chemical analysis and an X-ray fluorescence analysis
of the iron content. Each sample was split into two subsamples and the two types of
analysis were applied. Following are the coded data showing the iron content analysis:
Sample
Analysis 1 2 3 4 5
X-ray 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.4
Chemical 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.4
Assuming that the populations are normal, test at the 0.05 level of significance whether
the two methods of analysis give, on the average, the same result.
4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion
 Applicable to situations that do not ask for the mean but rather to know what percentage of
the population is in favour of a certain idea or concept such as:
 Will a new product be a success or not?
 Will this certain candidate win or not?
4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion
 Test-statistic to be used
 Binomial variable X with p = p0 (preferably, when sample size is small)
 P = P(X ≤ x when p = p0) (H1: <)
 P = P(X ≥ x when p = p0) (H1: >)
 P =2P(X ≤ x when p = p0) if x < npo (H1: )
 P =2P(X ≥ x when p = p0) if x > npo (H1: )

pˆ  p0
z0 
p0 (1 p0 )
n

 When sample size is large i.e., np0(1 – p0) ≥ 10


4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion…
P-value method
 Null and alternative hypothesis
 Choose a level of significance equal to
 Test statistic: Binomial variable X with p = p0
 Computations: Find x, the number of successes, and compute the appropriate P-value.
 Decision: Draw appropriate conclusions based on the P-value. reject H0 in favour of H1 if the
computed P-value is less than or equal to .
 4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion…
Example 8: In 1997, 46% of Americans said they did not trust the media “when it
comes to reporting the news fully, accurately and fairly”. In a 2007 poll of 1010
adults nationwide, 525 stated they did not trust the media. At the α = 0.05 level of
significance, is there evidence to support the claim that the percentage of
Americans that do not trust the media to report fully and accurately has increased
since 1997?
 4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion…
Example 9: A builder claims that heat pumps are installed in 70% of all homes
being constructed today in the city of Richmond, Virginia. Would you agree with
this claim if a random survey of new homes in this city showed that 8 out of 15
had heat pumps installed? Use a 0.10 level of significance.
 4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion: Two Populations
 Test-statistic to be used:

 for large sample size

 4. Testing of Hypothesis about Population
Proportion: Two Populations
 Example 10: A vote is to be taken among the residents of a town and the
surrounding county to determine whether a proposed chemical plant should be
constructed. The construction site is within the town limits, and for this reason
many voters in the county believe that the proposal will pass because of the large
proportion of town voters who favour the construction. To determine if there is a
significant difference in the proportions of town voters and county voters
favouring the proposal, a poll is taken. If 120 of 200 town voters favour the
proposal and 240 of 500 county residents favour it, would you agree that the
proportion of town voters favouring the proposal is higher than the proportion of
county voters? Use an α =0 .05 level of significance.
References

 Chapter 10, Introduction to statistics, Ronald E. Walpole.