Causal Comparative Research

Causal-Comparative/ ex post
facto Research
Causal-Comparative Research
Also called ex post facto research.
An attempt is made to find the cause or
explanation for existing differences
between (or among) groups.
Two or more existing groups are compared
retrospectively.
Note that in correlational research we had
one group and two or more variables. Here
we have two or more groups and one
variable.
Causal-Comparative research vs
Experimental research
In experimental research (or quasi-
experimental research) the researcher
controls the administration of the
independent variable.
In causal-comparative research the groups
being formed have already been
differentiated according to the independent
variable (e.g., either they have been exposed
to pre-school or not).
Causal Comparative Research
Groups…
are classified according to common
preexisting characteristic, and
compared on some other measure
There is NO
intervention,
manipulation, or
random assignment
Major difficulty:
Establishing the cause.
Three conditions for establishing cause-
effect relationships:
1. The presumed cause must precede the
effect.
2. The relationship between the cause and
effect must be statistically significant.
3. Other probable causes must be eliminated
(most difficult condition to meet).
Spurious Causation
Here are two examples of
spurious causation.
In the top example, the A B C
correlation between A and

C requires the mediator, B.
In the bottom example the
correlation between B and
C exists because both B C
variables are caused by A.

A
Reaching Conclusions
At best, causal-comparative research produces
evidence that supports a theoretical
conjecture.
The strength of evidence relies heavily on two
things:
1. The extent to which rival causes can be
ruled out.
2. The extent to which the results can be
predicted (according to theory) beforehand.
Conducting a
Causal-Comparative Study
Identify two or more populations (or groups)
that differ on some independent variable (IV)
of interest (e.g., novice teachers and veteran
teachers).
Formulate some theory about how the groups
should perform differently on some
dependent variable (DV) of interest (e.g.,
classroom management).
Select representative samples from the
populations and compare them on the
dependent variable.
Two Variations of Causal
Comparative Studies
There are two ways to approach causal-
comparative research:
• Prospective: start with a presumed cause
and investigate effects (not very common in
social science/education research).
• Retrospective: start with a presumed
effect and investigate possible causes
(these are more prevalent in social
science/education research).
Examples of the Two Variations
Investigate the relationship between
gender and career aspirations or career
choice.
• Retrospective: Groups identified on the
basis of career choice and then compared
by gender.
• Prospective: Groups formed on the basis of
gender, and compared on strength of
career aspirations.
Investigate the relationship of time
watching TV (the IV) on academic
achievement (the DV)
• Prospective: Form groups on the basis of how much
TV they watch and compare them on academic
achievement (say, GPA).
• Retrospective: Form groups on the basis of
academic achievement (say, class rank) and
compare this to hours of TV watched.
Investigate the effect of time parents
spend reading to children and children’s
reading readiness when entering 1st
grade.
• Retrospective: Groups formed on the basis of a
reading-readiness test score, and compare in terms of
time parents spend reading to their children.
• Prospective: Form groups of children in terms of time
their parents spent reading to them and compare the
children on reading readiness scores.
Investigate the effect of mentoring and
tendency to drop out of high school.
• Prospective: Groups formed on the basis of
whether they enjoyed a mentoring relationship
while in high school and compared in terms of
whether they dropped out of high school
• Retrospective: Groups formed on the basis of
whether they dropped out of high school, and
compared on whether they enjoyed a mentoring
relationship prior to dropping out.
Example Causal-Comparative
Study: What causes lung cancer?
Finding: People with lung cancer smoke
more than people without lung cancer.
There are no other differences in
lifestyle characteristics between the
groups.
Conclusion: Smoking is a possible cause of
lung cancer.
Caution: Is there a third factor that
might explain lung cancer AND smoking?
Weaknesses and Controls
Lack of randomization, inability to manipulate
the independent variables, lack of controls
of extraneous variables are all weaknesses
in causal-comparative research.
Three approaches that help ameliorate some of
the problems are:
1. Matching,
2. Comparing homogeneous groups, and
3. Analysis of covariance (to be discussed
later).
Strengthening Causal
Comparative Designs
Strong inference (theory plays a major role).
Time sequence (presumed cause precedes
presumed effect).
Incorporate other, possible, causes in the
design (measure common antecedents) .
Use designs that control for possibl extraneous
causes:
• matched group design
• Extreme groups design
• Statistical control (Analysis of Covariance)
Establishing Causal Relationships
From John Stuart Mills
• Establish a temporal sequence (the presumed
cause must precede the presumed effect).
• Establish a statistical relation ship between the
presumed cause and effect (correlations among
variables or differences among groups).
• Rule-out possible rival causes (control for, or
eliminate extraneous sources of influence).
• This is often the most difficult condition.
• Strong theory plays an important role here.
Wide Variety of Statistical
Procedures
t tests, ANOVA, ANCOVA when two or more
groups are being compared.
Regression analysis when there are multiple
independent variables.
MANOVA, and multivariate regression, when
there are multiple dependent variables.
Path analysis and structural equation modeling
when the theoretical causal paths are being
investigated.

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Causal-Comparative/ ex post

correlation between A and

variables are caused by A.

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