Gaf 520
Gaf 520
Gaf 520
GAF 520
ADVANCED CORPORATE
FINANCE
BY SAKALA.E
OBJECTIVES
To provide an understanding of the financial investment process.
To provide an insight into the organization and operations of our financial markets.
To provide an understanding of how investment decisions are made.
To broaden the understanding of issues in corporate finance.
CONTENT
INTRODUCTION
Investment definition; relationship between risk and return; investment versus
speculation and gambling; types of investment – real investment, financial investment;
stages in the investment management process.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
Types of securities markets including money, capital, primary and secondary markets;
the over the counter market; the third and fourth markets; issuing and trading in
securities in the financial markets; principal players in the financial markets and their
role.
EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS (EMH)
Meaning of efficiency; the efficient market hypothesis and forms of efficiency; tests and
results of efficient markets; efficiency of LuSE.
SECURITY ANALYSIS
Purpose of security analysis; Fundamental analysis; security market indicator series;
technical analysis; implications of EMH; analysis of fixed income securities.
PORTFOLIO THEORY
Measuring risk and return on individual assets and on portfolios;Markowitz
portfolio theory and formation; CAPM; introduction to arbitrage price theory;
portfolio theory versus efficient capital markets.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AND EVALUATION
Active versus passive management; strategic versus tactical asset allocation;
monitoring and revision of the portfolio; portfolio performance measures; stock
market price indices – types, calculation and interpretation.
Concerned
with
Financing decision Investment Decision Dividend Decision
Analysis
a) Return Investment
b) Ratio analysis
Profit Maximization:
Profit earning is the main aim of every economic activity. A business being
an economic institution must earn profit to cover its costs and provide
funds for growth.
No business can survives without earning profit. Profit is a measure of effi
ciency of a business enterprise. Profit also serves as a protection against
risks which cannot be ensured.
Arguments in favor of Profit Maximization
1.When profit earning is the aim of the business then the
profit maximization should be the obvious objective.
2.Profitability is the barometer for measuring the efficiency and
economic prosperity of a business enterprise, thus profit
maximization is justified on the ground of the rationality.
3.Profits are the main source of finance for the growth of the
business. So a business should aim at maximization of the
profits for enabling its growth and development.
4.Profitability is essential for fulfilling the social goals also. A
firm by pursuing the objectives of profits maximization also
maximizes the socio economic welfare.
5.A business may be able to survive under unfavorable
condition only if it had some past earnings to rely upon.
Arguments against of Profit Maximization
1.It is not precisely defined. It means different things for different people.
The term ‘Profit’ is vague and it cannot be precisely defined. It means
different things for different people. Should we mean (i) Short term profit or
long term profit? (ii) Total profit or earning pershare? (iii) Profit before tax
or after tax? (iv) Operating profit or profit available for the shareholders?
2.It ignores the time value of money and does not consider the magnitude
and the timing of earnings. It treats all the earnings as equal though they
occur in different time periods. It ignores the fact that the cash received
today is more important than the same amount of cash received after, say,
three years.
3.It does not take into consideration the risk of the prospective earning
stream.
Some projects are more risky than others. Two firms may have same expect
ed earnings per share, but if the earning stream in one is more risky the
market share of its share will be comparatively less.
4.The effect of the dividend policy on the market price of the shares is also
not considered in the objective of the profit maximization. In case,
earnings per share is the only objective then the enterprise may not think of
paying dividends at all because it retains profits in the business or investing
them in the market may satisfy this aim.
Wealth Maximization:
Maximization of Shareholder
Wealth!
Value creation occurs when we maximize the share
price for current shareholders.
PO = D(1+g) = D1/r-g
r-g
Shortcomings of Alternative
Perspectives
Profit Maximization
Maximizing a firm’s earnings after taxes.
Problems
• Could increase current profits while harming firm
(e.g., defer maintenance, issue common stock to
buy T-bills, etc.).
• Ignores changes in the risk level of the firm.
Shortcomings of Alternative
Perspectives
Earnings per Share Maximization
Maximizing earnings after taxes divided by
shares outstanding.
Problems
• Does not specify timing or duration of expected
returns.
• Ignores changes in the risk level of the firm.
• Calls for a zero payout dividend policy.
Strengths of Shareholder Wealth
Maximization
• Takes account of: current and future profits and
EPS; the timing, duration, and risk of profits and
EPS; dividend policy; and all other relevant
factors.
• Thus, share price serves as a barometer for
business performance.
The Modern Corporation
Modern Corporation
Shareholders Management
Cash Cash
Surplus units Financial
intermediary Deficit units
F.I security
Deficit unit security
Contrary, using indirect type of investing, investors are buying or
selling financial instruments of financial intermediaries (financial
institutions) which invest large pools of funds in the financial markets
and hold portfolios. Indirect investing relieves investors from making
decisions about their portfolio. As shareholders with the ownership
interest in the portfolios managed by financial institutions (investment
companies, pension funds, insurance companies, commercial banks)
the investors are entitled to their share of dividends, interest and
capital gains generated and pay their share of the institution’s
expenses and portfolio management fee. The risk for investor using
indirect investing is related more with the credibility of chosen
institution and the professionalism of portfolio managers. In general,
indirect investing is more related with the financial institutions which
are primarily in the business of investing in and managing a portfolio
of securities (various types of investment funds or investment
companies, private pension funds). By pooling the funds of thousands
of investors, those companies can offer them a variety of services, in
addition to diversification, including professional management of their
financial assets and liquidity.
The main types of financial investment vehicles are:
• Short term investment vehicles;
• Fixed-income securities;
• Common stock;
• Speculative investment vehicles;
• Other investment tools.
Short - term investment vehicles are all those which have a maturity of one
year or less. Short term investment vehicles often are defined as money-market
instruments, because they are traded in the money market which presents the
financial market for short term (up to one year of maturity) marketable
financial assets. The risk as well as the return on investments of short-term
investment vehicles usually is lower than for other types of investments. The
main short term investment vehicles are:
- Certificates of deposit;
- Treasury bills;
- Commercial paper;
- Bankers’ acceptances;
- Repurchase agreements
Certificate of deposit is debt instrument issued by bank that indicates a
specified sum of money has been deposited at the issuing depository
institution. Certificate of deposit bears a maturity date and specified
interest rate and can be issued in any denomination. Most certificates of
deposit cannot be traded and they incur penalties for early withdrawal.
For large money-market investors financial institutions allow their large-
denomination certificates of deposits to be traded as negotiable
certificates of deposits
Treasury bills (also called T-bills) are securities representing financial
obligations of the government. Treasury bills have maturities of less
than one year. They have the unique feature of being issued at a
discount from their nominal value and the difference between nominal
value and discount price is the only sum which is paid at the maturity
for these short term securities because the interest is not paid in cash,
only accrued. The other important feature of T-bills is that they are
treated as risk-free securities ignoring inflation and default of a
government, which was rare in developed countries, the T-bill will pay
the fixed stated yield with certainty.
Commercial paper is a name for short-term unsecured promissory
notes issued by corporation. Commercial paper is a means of short-
term borrowing by large corporations. Large, well-established
corporations have found that borrowing directly from investors
through commercial paper is cheaper than relying solely on bank
loans. Commercial paper is issued either directly from the firm to the
investor or through an intermediary. Commercial paper, like T-bills is
issued at a discount. The most common maturity range of commercial
paper is 30 to 60 days or less. Commercial paper is riskier than T-bills,
because there is a larger risk that a corporation will default. Also,
commercial paper is not easily bought and sold after it is issued,
because the issues are relatively small compared with T-bills and
hence their market is not liquid.
Banker‘s acceptances are the vehicles created to facilitate commercial trade
transactions. These vehicles are called bankers acceptances because a bank accepts
the responsibility to repay a loan to the holder of the vehicle in case the debtor fails to
perform. Banker‘s acceptances are short-term fixed-income securities that are created
by non-financial firm whose payment is guaranteed by a bank. This shortterm loan
contract typically has a higher interest rate than similar short –term securities to
compensate for the default risk. Since bankers’ acceptances are not standardized,
there is no active trading of these securities.
Repurchase agreement (often referred to as a repo) is the sale of security with
a commitment by the seller to buy the security back from the purchaser at a specified
price at a designated future date. Basically, a repo is a collectivized shortterm loan,
where collateral is a security. The collateral in a repo may be a Treasury security, other
money-market security. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price
is the interest cost of the loan, from which repo rate can be calculated. Because of
concern about default risk, the length of maturity of repo is usually very short. If the
agreement is for a loan of funds for one day, it is called overnight repo; if the term of
the agreement is for more than one day, it is called a term repo. A reverse repo is the
opposite of a repo. In this transaction a corporation buys the securities with an
agreement to sell them at a specified price and time. Using repos helps to increase the
liquidity in the money market.
Fixed-income securities are those which return is fixed, up to some
redemption date or indefinitely. The fixed amounts may be stated in
money terms or indexed to some measure of the price level. This type
of financial investments is presented by two different groups of
securities:
- Long-term debt securities
- Preferred stocks
Speculative investment vehicles could be defined as investments
with a high risk and high investment return. Using these investment
vehicles, speculators try to buy low and to sell high, their primary
concern is with anticipating and profiting from the expected market
fluctuations. The only gain from such investments is the positive
difference between selling and purchasing prices. Of course, using
shortterm investment strategies investors can use for speculations other
investment vehicles, such as common stock, but here we try to
accentuate the specific types of investments which are more risky than
other investment vehicles because of their nature related with more
uncertainty about the changes influencing the their price in the future.
Some types of Speculative investment vehicles include Options and
Futures
Other investment tools:
- Various types of investment funds;
- Investment life insurance;
- Pension funds;
- Hedge funds.
Investment companies/ investment funds. These receive money from investors
with the common objective of pooling the funds and then investing them in
securities according to a stated set of investment objectives. Two types of
funds:
• open-end funds (mutual funds) ,
• closed-end funds (trusts).
Open-end funds have no pre-determined amount of stocks outstanding and
they can buy back or issue new shares at any point. Price of the share is not
determined by demand, but by an estimate of the current market value of the
fund’s net assets per share (NAV) and a commission.
Closed-end funds are publicly traded investment companies that have issued a
specified number of shares and can only issue additional shares through a new
public issue. Pricing of closed-end funds is different from the pricing of open-
end funds: the market price can differ from the NAV.
Insurance Companies are in the business of assuming the risks of adverse events
(such as fires, accidents, etc.) in exchange for a flow of insurance premiums.
Insurance companies are investing the accumulated funds in securities (treasury
bonds, corporate stocks and bonds), real estate. Three types of Insurance Companies:
life insurance;
non-life insurance (also known as property-casualty insurance)
and reinsurance.
Pension Funds pool resources from those working with the aim of providing either a
lump pension payment on retirement or a stable periodic retirement payment. Pension
funds invest their funds in securities (treasury bonds, corporate stocks and bonds),
real estate.
Accept
X SML
EXPECTED RATE
X X
OF RETURN
X X O
X X
O O
O O Reject O
Rf O
Maximization of Shareholder
Wealth!
Value creation occurs when we maximize the share
price for current shareholders.
PO = D(1+g) = D1/r-g
r-g
EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS
(EMH)
The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) suggests that profiting from predicting price
movements is very difficult and unlikely. The main engine behind price changes is the
arrival of new information. A market is said to be “efficient” if prices adjust quickly and,
on average, without bias, to new information. As a result, the current prices of
securities reflect all available information at any given point in time. Consequently,
there is no reason to believe that prices are too high or too low. Security prices adjust
before an investor has time to trade on and profit from a new a piece of information
The key reason for the existence of an efficient market is the intense competition
among investors to profit from any new information. The ability to identify over-and
under-priced stocks is very valuable (it would allow investors to buy some stocks for
less than their “true” value and sell others for more than they were worth).
The most crucial implication of the EMH can be put in the form of a slogan:
Trust market prices!
At any point in time, prices of securities in efficient markets reflect all known
information available to investors.
THREE VERSIONS OF THE EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS
The efficient markets hypothesis predicts that market prices should incorporate
all available information at any point in time. There are, however, different
kinds of information that influence security values. Consequently, financial
researchers distinguish among three versions of the Efficient Markets
Hypothesis, depending on what is meant by the term “all available information”.
WEAK FORM EFFICIENCY
The weak form of the efficienct markets hypothesis asserts that the current
price fully incorporates information contained in the past history of prices only
That is, nobody can detect mis-priced securities and “beat” the market by
analyzing past prices.
The weak form of the hypothesis got its name for a reason
–security prices are arguably the most public as well as the most easily
available pieces of information. Thus, one should not be able to profit from
using something that “everybody else knows”. On the other hand, many
financial analysts attempt to generate profits by studying exactly what this
hypothesis asserts is of no value
-past stock price series and trading volume data. This technique is called
technical analysis
SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY
The semi-strong-form of market efficiency hypothesis suggests that the
current price fully incorporates all publicly available information. Public
information includes not only past prices,but also data reported in a company’s
financial statements (annual reports, income statements, filings for the
Security and Exchange Commission, etc.),
earnings and dividend announcements, announced merger plans, the financial
situation of company’s competitors, expectations regarding macroeconomic
factors (such as inflation, unemployment), etc. In fact, the public information
does not even have to be of a strictly financial nature. For example, for the
analysis of pharmaceutical companies, the relevant public information may
include the current (published) state of research in pain-relieving drugs.
The assertion behind semi-strong market efficiency is still that one should not
be able to profit using something that “everybody else knows” (the
information is public).
Nevertheless, this assumption is far stronger than that of weak-form efficiency.
STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY
The strong form of market efficiency hypothesis states that the current price
fully
incorporates all existing information, both public and private (sometimes
called inside information). The main difference between the semi -strong and
strong efficiency hypotheses is that in the latter case, nobody should be able
to systematically generate profits even if trading on information not publicly
known at the time. In other words, the strong form of EMH states that a
company’s management (insiders) are not be able to systematically gain
from inside information by buying company’s shares ten minutes after they
decided (but did not publicly announce) to pursue what they perceive to be
a very profitable acquisition. Similarly, the members of the company’s
research department are not able to profit from the information about the
new revolutionary discovery they completed half an hour ago. The rationale
for strong-form market efficiency is that the market anticipates, in an
unbiased manner, future developments.
Technical analysis involves the analysis of market prices in an attempt to
predict future price movements for the particular financial asset traded on
the market. This analysis examines the trends of historical prices and is
based on the assumption that these trends or patterns repeat themselves in
the future. Technical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price
movements in the financial markets, by using historical price charts and
market statistics. It is based on the idea that if a trader can identify
previous market patterns, they can form a fairly accurate prediction of
future price trajectories.
Fundamental analysis in its simplest form is focused on the evaluation of
intrinsic value of the financial asset. This valuation is based on the
assumption that intrinsic value is the present value of future flows from
particular investment. By comparison of the intrinsic value and market value
of the financial assets those which are under priced or overpriced can be
identified. This step involves identifying those specific financial assets in
which to invest and determining the proportions of these financial assets in
the investment portfolio.
Po = D1/r-g , re= D1/Po +g,(Intrinsic Value) Market value Rr = Rf + b(Rm-
Rf)
Capital structure
When it comes to business terms and conditions, the capital structure is one of
the basic foundations in this field. It is defined as the equilibrium between the
debt and a company’s equity. Without a stable structure, the business will
collapse.
Every business or company requires the investment or financial support for its
long-term operations. Understanding this financial aid and the procedure of step-
by-step investments in the industry is known as the capital structure. Calculating
the capital structure and preparing the plan depends upon the type of the
business. The evaluation of structure must be maintained in such a way so that
the ROI is always higher.
A company is funded with K16m of equity and K6m of debt. The
recent dividend growth rate at the company has been 6%. The
Asset beta is 1.2 and the debt beta is 0.25. The company faces a
tax rate of 30%. The risk free rate of interest is 4.6% and the
stock market return is 10.6%.
Find
a) cost of equity =13.9375%
c) WACC=11.3%
Factors affecting the capital structure
Various factors might affect the evaluation of the structure; these factors are
categorised into two groups, internal factors and external factors.
Internal factors: The capital structure of a business or a startup depends
upon its size, theme, and nature. The firm’s age and the plan also play an
active role in determining the same. However, in official terms, the trading on
equity and the period or purpose of financing are significant factors affecting
any business’s capital structure.
External factors: The external factors consist of those policies and
documentation, that the owner cannot control. The external factors include
the taxation policy, economic fluctuation in the market, and the level of
competition. Several other factors include the nature of the investor, capital
markets condition, and the financial institutions’ policy. Based on the type of
business, the seasonal variation in the market also affects the capital
Importance of Capital structure
Calculating and managing a capital structure is required for growing a
business. Several salient features need to be considered while creating the
structure. Some of these are:
A capital structure must be designed in a way so that the value of the
company is higher than the cost of capital
The perfect evaluation assures the most economical and safe ratio between
different policies
Those structures are more preferred if they provide the minimum risk factor
An optimal capital structure must be straightforward and flexible according to
the market conditions
It must involve rules, terms, and conditions which are attractive and efficient
An optimal capital structure must correlate with all legal requirements to
prevent the hassle
Theories of capital structure 29/03/24
A business requires the most beneficial capital structure. So, many capital structure
theories are available to take as a reference; amongst them, we will discuss the four
most essential ones:
Net income theory:
This theory was postulated by David Durand, who put forward the idea of increasing the
proportion of debt in the overall capital structure. According to him, debt is a fund
source because it has a lower interest rate, eliminating the risk factor and playing a
significant role in deducting expenses for income tax. This theory is also called the
“Fixed ‘Ke’ theory.”
Net operating income theory:
Also known as the irrelevant theory, it was also postulated by David Durand. It depicts
that the company’s market value is not affected by changes in the capital structure. The
overall cost of equity can remain fixed no matter the proportion of debt.
Traditional theory:
The traditional theory was postulated by Ezra Solomon. The assumptions of this
approach are quite related to the net income theory. The main principle behind this
theory was to increase the proportion of debt to a certain limit in the capital structure.
Modigliani-Miller theory:
This theory came into existence by correlating the ideas of two co-members,
Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller. This theory had two further
assumptions.
Absence of Corporate taxes: According to Modigliani-Miller’s theory,
in the absence of the corporate tax, the value of the creditworthy firm
will be equal to that of the amount of equity compromised.
Presence of corporate taxes: In the case where taxes are applied,
the value of the creditworthy firm is equal to the value of the indebted
firm summed up with the product of the tax rate and the value of debt.
Conclusion
The capital structure of a company determines the best proportion of the
debt and equity of that company. Calculating and representing an optimal
capital structure with the minimum risk factor is mostly appreciated. Capital
structure is very much required for the successful running of a business and
to ensure profitable growth in the market. Without a proper capital structure,
a company might face several hurdles in the market. Henceforth, a proper
structure must be evaluated for which several theories are available to take a
reference.
Overall Cost of
Capital of the Firm
ki = kd ( 1 - T )
Determination of
the Cost of Debt
Assume that Basket Wonders (BW) has K1,000 par
value zero-coupon bonds outstanding. BW bonds
are currently trading at K385.54 with 10 years to
maturity. BW tax bracket is 40%.Find cost of debt
K0 + K1,000
K385.54 =
(1 + kd)10
Determination of
the Cost of Debt
(1 + kd)10 = K1,000 / K385.54
= 2.5938
(1 + kd) = (2.5938) (1/10)
= 1.1
kd = .1 or 10%
ki = 10% ( 1 - .40 )
ki = 6%
Preferred Stock Valuation
Preferred Stock is a type of stock that
promises a (usually) fixed dividend, but
at the discretion of the board of
directors.
Preferred Stock has preference over
common stock in the payment of dividends
and claims on assets.
Preferred Stock Valuation
¥ DivP
=S (1 + kP)t
or DivP (PVIFA k P, ¥)
t=1
D1 D2 D
VZG = + + ... +
¥
n D0(1+g1) t ¥ Dn(1+g2)t
V =S + S (1 + ke)t
t=1 (1 + ke) t
t=n+1
Growth Phases Model
n D0(1+g1)t 1 Dn+1
V =S +
(1 + ke)n (ke - g2)
t=1 (1 + ke)t
Growth Phases Model
Example
Stock GP has an expected growth rate of 16%
for the first 3 years and 8% thereafter. Each
share of stock just received an annual K3.24
dividend per share. The appropriate discount
rate is 15%. What is the value of the common
stock under this scenario?
Growth Phases Model
Example
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6
Stock GP has two phases of growth. The first, 16%, starts at time
t=0 for 3 years and is followed by 8% thereafter starting at time
t=3. We should view the time line as two separate time lines in
the valuation.
Growth Phases Model
Example
0 1 2 3 Growth Phase
#1 plus the infinitely
long Phase #2
D1 D2 D3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D4 D5 D6
Note that we can value Phase #2 using the Constant
Growth Model
Growth Phases Model
Example
V3 = D 4
We can use this model because
dividends grow at a constant 8%
k-g rate beginning at the end of Year 3.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
D4 D5 D6
Note that we can now replace all dividends from year 4 to
infinity with the value at time t=3, V3! Simpler!!
Growth Phases Model
Example
0 1 2 3 New Time
Line
D1 D2 D3
0 1 2 3 D4
Where V3 =
V3 k-g
Now we only need to find the first four dividends to
calculate the necessary cash flows.
Growth Phases Model
Example
Determine the annual dividends.
D0 = K3.24 (this has been paid already)
D1 = D0(1+g1)1 = K3.24(1.16)1 =K3.76
D2 = D0(1+g1)2 = K3.24(1.16)2 =K4.36
D3 = D0(1+g1)3 = K3.24(1.16)3 =K5.06
D4 = D3(1+g2)1 = K5.06(1.08)1 =K5.46
D4 = 3.24(1.16)^3(1.08) = K5.46
Growth Phases Model
Example
0 1 2 3 Actual
Values
3.76 4.36 5.06
0 1 2 3 5.46
Where K78 =
.15-.08
78
Now we need to find the present value of the
cash flows.
Growth Phases Model
Example
We determine the PV of cash flows.
PV(D1) = D1(PVIF15%, 1) = K3.76 (.870) = K3.27
PV(D2) = D2(PVIF15%, 2) = K4.36 (.756) = K3.30
PV(D3) = D3(PVIF15%, 3) = K5.06 (.658) = K3.33
P3 = K5.46 / (.15 - .08) = K78 [CG Model]
PV(P3) = P3(PVIF15%, 3) = K78 (.658) = K51.32
Growth Phases
Model Example
Finally, we calculate the intrinsic value by summing
all of cash flow present values.
Mwewa Co also has in issue 8·5% bonds with a total nominal value of K5 million. The market
value of each K100 bond is K103·42. Mwewa Co is planning to invest a significant amount of
money into an investment project in a new business area.
Mwewa Co has identified a proxy company with a similar business risk to the investment project.
The proxy company has an equity beta of 1·038 and is financed 75% by equity and 25% by debt,
on a market value basis.
The current risk-free rate of return is 4% and the average equity risk premium is 5%. Mwewa Co
has an equity beta of 1·6. Mwewa Co pays tax on profits at an annual rate of 30% per year.
REQUIRED
Calculate the cost of equity of Mwewa Co using the dividend growth model.
Calculate the cost of equity of Mwewa Co using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
On a market value basis, Kayambi Co is financed 70% by equity and 30%
by debt. The company has a cost of debt of 10% and an equity beta of 1·2.
The risk-free rate of return is 4% and the equity risk premium is 5%.The
corporation tax is 40%.
Calculate;
(a) After tax cost of debt
(b) Cost of equity
(c) What is the after-tax weighted average cost of capital of Kayambi Co?
(A)Stocks A and B have the following historical returns
Year Stock A’s returns Stock B’s returns
1 (18.00%) (14.50%)
2 33.00 21.80
3 15.00 30.50
4 (0.50) (7.60)
5 27.00 26.30
Required
Calculate the average rate of return for each stock (4 Marks)
Calculate the standard deviation of returns for each stock (10 Marks)
Calculate Coefficient of variation of stock A and stock B (4 Marks)
(B)What is the value to you today 14/11/22 of a 9% coupon bond with a par value
of K10,000 that was issued on 14/11/12 which matures on 14/11/30 if you want a
7% return? Use annual compounding. ( 4 Marks)
( C) Preferred stock of JOY Ltd has par value of K100, an annual dividend of K8, a
required rate of return 9% and a market price of K96. From this information would
you buy this stock?Explain with supporting calculations. (3 Marks)
CAPITAL BUDGETING
What is
Capital Budgeting?
(1 + r) = (1+i)/(1+h)
1+ r = (1.1)/(1.02)
1+r = 1.078
r = 1.078 – 1
0.078
7.8%
CAPITAL INVESTMENT APPRAISAL
INTRODUCTION
Capital Budgeting involves the assessment of how much should be spent on assets or project
and which assets should be acquired.
Before deciding which project/assets to invest in, corporations must compare the benefits to be
derived from the acquisition/investment against the costs involved in the investment.
The investment will not purely depend upon financial aspects but to a large extent, the strategic
direction of the business. Remember the financial decisions fall within the long-term corporate
strategy formulation process.
Project appraisal is a generic term that refers to the process of assessing, in a structured way,
the case for proceeding with a project or proposal. It often involves comparing various options,
using economic appraisal or some other decision analysis techniques.
PAYBACKPERIOD
DPB
NPV
IRR
PI
You buy a bus costing K40,000 and expected useful life of 5
years after which it can be sold for K10,000.The bus is
expected to bring revenues of K100,000 each year.Other
operating costs are expected to be K80,000 per year.Suppliers
of capital require 10% return on their investment.If all
revenues and expenses are on cash basis,how much is
(a)Cash per each year
(b)Profit per year.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Revenue K100,000 K100,000 K100,000 K100,000 K100,000
Other cash 10,000
Expenses 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
Purchase
of Assets 40,000
Net cash 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 30,000
Profit
Revenue K100,000 K100,000 K100,000 K100,000 K100,000
Expenses 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
Depreciation 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000
Profit 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14000
A person was caught with a head of a human being with street value of K20 million and was
sentenced to 15 years in prison.
Risk takers
Risk neutral
Risk averse
Calculating the
Incremental Cash Flows
• Initial cash outflow -- the initial net cash
investment.
• Interim incremental net cash flows -- those net
cash flows occurring after the initial cash
investment but not including the final period’s
cash flow.
• Terminal-year incremental net cash flows -- the
final period’s net cash flow.
Initial Cash Outflow
a) Cost of “new” assets
b) + Capitalized expenditures
c) + (-) Increased (decreased) NWC
d) - Net proceeds from sale of
“old” asset(s) if replacement
e) + (-) Taxes (savings) due to the sale
of “old” asset(s) if replacement
f) = Initial cash outflow
Incremental Cash Flows
a) Net incr. (decr.) in operating revenue
less (plus) any net incr. (decr.) in
operating expenses, excluding depr.
b) - (+) Net incr. (decr.) in tax depreciation
c) = Net change in income before taxes
d) - (+) Net incr. (decr.) in taxes
e) = Net change in income after taxes
f) + (-) Net incr. (decr.) in tax depr. charges
g) = Incremental net cash flow for period
Terminal-Year Incremental
Cash Flows
a) Calculate the incremental net cash
flow for the terminal period
b) + (-) Salvage value (disposal/reclamation
costs) of any sold or disposed assets
c) - (+) Taxes (tax savings) due to asset sale
or disposal of “new” assets
d) + (-) Decreased (increased) level of “net”
working capital
e) = Terminal year incremental net cash flow
INITIAL INVESTMENT
Capital budgeting decisions involve careful estimation of the initial investment outlay and future
cash flows of a project. Correct estimation of these inputs helps in taking decisions that increase
shareholders wealth.
Initial investment is the amount required to start a business or a project. It is also called initial
investment outlay or simply initial outlay. It equals capital expenditures plus working capital
requirement plus after-tax proceeds from assets disposed off or available for use elsewhere.
Formula
Initial investment equals the amount needed for capital expenditures, such as machinery, tools,
shipment and installation, etc.; plus any increase in working capital, minus any after tax cash
flows from disposal of any old assets. Sunk costs are ignored because they are irrelevant.
Initial Investment = CapEx + ΔWC - D
Where,
CapEx is capital expenditure,
∆WC is the change in working capital and
D is the net cash flow from disposed asset.
Example
Konkola Copper Mine (KCM)started a copper and gold exploration and
extraction project in Chingola in 2015. In 2016-2017, it incurred
expenditure of K200 million on feasibility studies of the area and K500
million on equipment. In 2018, the company abandoned the project due
to disagreement with the government. Recently, a new business friendly
government is sworn in. KCM managing director believes the project
needs reconsideration. The company's financial analyst and chief
engineer estimate that K1,500 million worth of new equipment is
needed to restart the project. Shipment and installation expenditures
would amount to K200 million. Current assets must increase by K200
million and current liabilities by K90 million. The equipment purchased
in 2016-2017 is no longer useful and is to be disposed of for after tax
proceeds of K120 million. Find the initial investment outlay.
Solution
Initial investment
= equipment purchase price + shipment and installation +
increase in working capital − disposal inflows
= K1,500 million + K200 million + (K200 million − K90 million)
− K120 million
= K1,690 million.
1.Find the present value of each cashflow, including both inflows and outflows (treating cash
outflows as negative cash flows) discounted at the project’s cost of capital.
2.Sum these discounted cashflows; this sum is defined as the project’s NPV.
3.If the NPV is positive, the project should be accepted, while if the NPV is negative, the
YEAR CASHFLOWS DISCOUNT DISCOUNTED
FACTOR (i/(1.i)^n CASHFLOW
0 (K100M) 1 [1/(1.1)^0] (100)
4 10 0.6830 6.83
5 1 0.621 0.621
6 1 0.564 0.564
NPV 9.066
IRR Decision Rules
Independent Projects: Accept project as long as the IRR > hurdle rate(required rate of return or cost of capital)
Mutually Exclusive Projects: Compute (IRR - hurdle rate) for each project, rank from highest to lowest and accept the
highest ranking project [assuming the computation (IRR - hurdle rate) > 0]
IRR--Advantages/Disadvantages
1) Advantages
• It Considers all cash flows
• It Considers time value of money
• It is Comparable with the hurdle rate
2) Disadvantages
• Does not show dollar improvement in value of firm if project is accepted
• IRR can be affected by the scale (size) of the project, i.e., Io
• Possible existence of multiple IRRs
Relationship Between IRR and the NPV Profile
1) When the IRR = the firm's hurdle rate, NPV = 0
2) When the IRR < the firm's hurdle rate, NPV < 0
3) When the IRR > the firm's hurdle rate, NPV > 0
NPV and IRR Methods: Possible Decision Conflicts
An accept/reject "conflict" occurs when NPV says "accept" and IRR says "reject" or NPV says "reject" and IRR says "accept"
Note: When projects are independent, no accept/reject conflict will arise
A ranking conflict occurs when one project has a higher NPV than another while the lower NPV project has a higher IRR.
Note: Ranking conflicts are unusual but can occur. These conflicts are relevant only when there are multiple acceptable
mutually exclusive projects
Ranking conflicts arise because of:
1) Timing differences in incremental cash flows
2) Magnitude differences in incremental cash flows
When a conflict arises among mutually exclusive projects, pick the one with the highest NPV
3. Profitability index
It is sometimes called Benefit Cost Ratio or present value index. It is calculated by taking the
present value of cash inflows divided by the present value of cash outflows. The decision criteria is
to accept project with a Profitability Index (PI) greater than one.
This ratio gives the return in the present terms per unit invested. Using this criterion, projects will
be ranked from the one with highest PI down to one with the lowest, and then project would be selected in the
order of ranking up to the point where the budget is exhausted.
This criterion is simple but suffers from two basic limitations.
It cannot be used to except in cases where there is only a single constraint. In case where the capital is rationed in more that
one period or where the capital is not the only constraint, the criteria will not provide the best solution.
It looks projects individually and does not take into account the overall portfolio where correlation of projects’ returns is
important.
0 (K100M) 0 0 0 (K100m)
1 K50 m 0.9091 45.455 45.455 54.545
2 K40 m 0.8264 33.056 78.511 21.489
3 K30 m 0.7513 22.539 100 NIL
QUESTION
Bauze is a small manufacturing company that makes garden furniture. They are considering a
project where they will make special metal ornaments; this is considered to be in the normal area
of its business.
This will involve the company buying a new piece of equipment, the capital costs of which will be
K400 000; there will also be an extra K50 000 of installation costs which can be expensed straight
away. This piece of equipment will replace an old machine which has a book value of K50 000 and
one year to go before it will have been depreciated to zero. The new equipment will be depreciated
straight line to zero over five years with no salvage value at the end of its life. If the project is
undertaken, the old equipment will be sold for K90 000.
The ornaments will retail for K12 each and will cost a total of K8 each to get to the market. In the
final two years of the five-year project, it is expected that the costs will rise to K9 and K10,
respectively.
At the start of the project, it is expected that there will be K40 000 of stock required. At the same
time accounts receivables will be K50 000 and accounts payable of K25 000. These levels will be
maintained until the end of the project. The company expects to sell 80 000 units in the first
year,rising to 100 000 in year 2, and 120 000 in year 3, before falling back to 100 000 for each of
years 4 and 5.
The company expects to incur an extra K50 000 in marketing costs in the first year, followed by K40
000 a year thereafter. The project will also incur K40 000 of overhead costs from the parent
company.The survey cost of K30,000 will be paid in year 1 of the project.
Two managers from the parent company will come and work on the project; their current salaries
are K50 000 each and the parent company will have to hire two new managers to fill the vacated
positions. The company expects to start two new managers at a salary of K40 000 each.
The company is funded with K16m of equity and K6m of debt. The recent dividend growth rate at
the company has been 6%. The Asset beta is 1.2 and the debt beta is 0.25. The company faces a
tax rate of 30%. The risk free rate of interest is 4.6% and the stock market return is 10.6%.
Calculate
a) Pay back Period
b) Discounted Pay back Period
c) NPV
d) PI
e) IRR
f) ARR
WACC =Ke x E/E+D + Kd(1-t) x D/E+D
Ke = Rf + b(Rm-Rf)
4.6 + b(10.6 -4.6)
0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Investment -400,000
Setup -50,000
0.7252947
Discount Factor 1 0.89847 0.80725300 0 0.65165740 0.58549633 NPV
Discounted Cash Flow -422000 127582.74 177595.66 200181.34 97748.61 84896.97 266005.32
TAXATION CALCULATION Year
0 1 2 3 4 5
Profit on Sale of old Equip 40,000
-50,000
Setup Costs
960,000 1,200,000 1,200,000
Revenues 1,200,000 1,440,000
(17.43- -6.43)
0 32% + 2.19%
r
34.19%
IRR
IMPACT OF TAXATION ON NPV
OR
0 1 2 3 4 5
CASH FLOWS (100,000) 30,000 40,000 50,000 40,000 -
DEP 25,000 18,750 14,063 22,187
PROFIT 5,000 21250 35937 17813
TAX (33%) 1,650 7,013 11,859 5878
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project L -K10,000 2,500 2750 3,000 3250 3750 3,500
Project S -K10,000 5,250 4,750 4,500
The life span of Project L is 6 years and 3 years for Project S, so the minimum
common multiple lifespan is 6 years, which means that Project S should be repeated
twice while Project L only once. To rank both projects, we need to use the NPV rule.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project L -K10,000 2,500 2750 3,000 3250 3750 3,500
Project S -K10,000 5,250 4,750 4,500
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project L -K10,000 2,500 2750 3,000 3250 3750 3,500
Project S -K10,000 5,250 4,750 -5,500 5,250 4,750 4,500
NPVL = 1,461.61
NPV S =1,849.33
Choose project S because it has a higher NPV
EAA = NPV/PVIFA = 1,461/1-1.15^-6/0.15 =386
1,115/1-1.15^-3/0.15 =488
K2,500 K2,750 K3,000 K3,250 K3,750 K3,500
NPVL = - =
+ + + + +
K10,000 + (1 + 0.15)1 (1 + 0.15)2 (1 + 0.15)3 (1 + 0.15)4 (1 + 0.15)5 (1 + 0.15)6 K1,461.61
The NPV of Project L is K1,461.61
The NPV of Project S is K1,115.72
The NPV for S is for 3 years.If the project is repeated that is for 6 years,what is
the NPV
The NPV of Project L is K1,461.61
The NPV of Project S is K1,115.72
The NPV for S is for 3 years.If the project is repeated that is for 6 years,which
project should be picked
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project L -K20,000 2,500 2750 3,000 3250 3750 3,500
Project S -K10,000 5,250 4,750 4,500
-10,000 5250 4750 4500
Project S -K10,000 5250 4,750 -5500 5250 4750 4500
K5,250 K4,750 K4,500
NPVS1 = -K10,000 + + + = K1,115.72
(1 + 0.15)1 (1 + 0.15)2 (1 + 0.15)3
For example, there are two mutually exclusive projects: Project S with an NPV of
K450,000 and a life span of 7 years and Project L with an NPV of K475,000 and a life
span of 9 years. They have a common cost of capital of 11%. If both of them are
replicated in perpetuity, which project should be chosen?
Disadvantages
The key disadvantage of the replacement chain method is assuming that any project can be
repeated exactly. In fact, it is unlikely that the cost of capital and cash flows remain the same
at each replication.
Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) Approach
The EAA value represents the required size of an annual payment over an
asset’s life to make the present value of the project’s operating cash flows
equal to the net present value, when the cost of capital is applied as the
discount rate.
Cost of capital is 15%
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project L -K10,000 2,500 2750 3,000 3250 3750 3,500
Project S -K10,000 5,250 4,750 4,500
Using Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) method, which project would you pick.
The NPV of Project L is K1,461.61
The NPV of Project S is K1,115.72
AL= 386
AS =489
Residue 2,100
NPV (4,831)
The two NPVs calculated should not be compared as quite
It is anticipated that if either project is chosen it will be possible to repeat it for the
foreseeable future.
The cost of capital of the company is 13% per year.
Calculate which project the company should accept.
Cash flows at
the end of
Initial Cost, CF0 relevant year,
CFt
0 1 2 3 4 5
Project L -K20,000,000 K5,000,000 K5,500,000 K7,500,000 K6,000,000 K5,500,000
Project S -K20,000,000 K6,250,000 K7,000,000 K7,500,000 K7,250,000
NPV × r
EAA =
1 - (1 + r)-N
Decision Rule
When several mutually exclusive projects with unequal life spans are compared, the
one with the highest EAA value should be accepted.
K1,121,160.08 × 0.12
EAA of Project L = = K311,020.72
1 - (1 + 0.12)-5
K988,111.64 × 0.12
EAA of Project S = = K325,320.38
1 - (1 + 0.12)-4
Project S has a higher EAA value than Project L, so Company C should accept it.
EAA
NPV of an Ordinary Perpetuity =
r
If both annuities are perpetuities, their present value will be as follows:
K311,020.72
NPVL = = K2,591,839.30
0.12
K325,320.38
NPVS = = K2,711,003.16
0.12
CAPITAL RATIONING
A restriction on an enity’s ability to invest capital funds, caused by
an internal budget ceiling being imposed on such expenditure by
the management (soft capital rationing) or by external limitations
being applied to the entity, as when additional borrowed funds
can not be obtained (hard capital rationing).
Soft rationing is when the firm itself limits the amount of capital
that is going to be used for investment decisions in a given time
period.
PROJECT
A B C D
Initial cost 30,000 20,000 40,000 10,000
Present value of subsequent
Cashflows 52,000 25,000 56,000 18,000
d2 = d1-δ√t
The Black-Scholes
Find the value of a call option with the following features
1.Current stock price is K400
2.Exercise price is K400
3.Standard deviation on the stock is 32%
4.Time to maturity is 6 months
5.Interest rate per year is 4%
Step 1 Calculate the present value of the exercise price
400e^-0.04x0.5 = 392.08
Step 2: Calculate d1
d1 = In[400/392.08] + 0.32√0.5 =0.2015
0.32√0.5 2
Step 3: Calculate d2
d2 = 0.2015 - 0.32√0.5 = -0.025
Step 4: Find N(d1) and N(d2)
N(d1) =N(0.2015) = 0.5851
N(d2) = N(-0.025) = 0.4901
Step : Find the value of option
Option value = [0.5851 x 400] – [0.4901 x 392.08] =
K39.8
A company is considering a project. It has only 10%
debt in its capital structure, with a pre-tax cost of 8%. It
has a beta of 1.4; the risk free rate is 5%, and the
equity risk premium is 6.5%. The project would be 90%
equity funded. This would require an investment of K700
000 at the end of year 5 and this would produce a
stream of cash flows with a present value of K650 000 at
the end year 5. The volatility of the cash flows is
35%.The Company considers this project to be a real
option. Assume WACC is 13.25%. Find the value of this
real option. (25 Marks)
The Black Scholes option pricing model needs to be used here. It is contained in the formula sheet.
The present value of the year 5 cash flow needs to be obtained before calculating the option price.
We need to use the Black Scholes option pricing formula:
WACC = 13.25%
S0 348.9 650 is discounted by WACC, 5 years
X 700
T 5
rf 5%
vol 35%
d1 calc
ln(S0/X) = –0.69625
rf × T = 0.25 Top line = –0.44625
vol × (T0.5) = 0.782624 Bottom line = 0.783
divided = –0.5702
plus
0.5 × vol × √(T) = 0.3913 d1 = –0.1789
N(d1) = 0.42902
d2 calc
= d1 – vol × (T0.5) = d2 = –0.9615
N(d2) = 0.16815
Formula = S0 × N(d1) – Xe-rfT × N(d2)
S0 × N(d1) = 149.69
Xe-rfT = 545.16 this is the PV of the exercise price – discounted by 5 years:
Xe-rfT × N(d2) = 91.67 e = 2.71828
on calculator, press shift e, then 1 =. This gives 2.71828
Call price = 58.02 Take the 2.71828 to the power of (–0.05 × 5) = 0.7788
Multiply 700 by 0.7788 = 545.16
QUESTION
The Crammond Manufacturing Plc has a number of factories around the country and it
needs to upgrade the water purification systems in its factories.
The company is looking at two possible systems: the first, the Titan, will cost K120 000
per installation and will have an operating cost of K11 000 annually; the other system,
the Colossus, will cost K225 000 per installation and has an annual operating cost of
K6000 per installation. Both systems will be depreciated straight line to zero over their
working lives. The Titan will be replaced every 5 years and the Colossus will be replaced
every 8 years. The company faces a tax rate of 30%.This is a normal project for the
company, which has an asset beta of 0.9 and an equity beta of 1.0875. The company is
80% funded by equity and has just paid an annual dividend of 23.4Ngwee and its share
price is 260Ngwee. The risk free rate of interest is 4.35% and the stock market risk
premium is 5.5%. Ignore inflation.
Required:
a. Calculate the cost of capital that would be used to evaluate this investment decision.
(5 Marks)
b. Work out the equivalent annual cost for each machine and explain which system you
would choose. (15 Marks)
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Monte-Carlo simulation is another option pricing model.
The Monte-Carlo simulation is a more sophisticated
method to value options. In this method, the possible
future stock prices are simulated and then use them to find
the discounted expected option payoffs.
WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Working capital is capital that is represented by the net current assets which is available for day-to-day
operating activities. It normally includes Inventories, trade receivables, cash and cash equivalents less
trade payables. Each of these components needs a control system but it is also essential to consider
working capital as a whole and how these components fit together.
Working capital management is concerned with the liquidity position of the company so the main aim is to
generate cash as quickly as possible.
Total current assets are K1, 352 million and total current liabilities were K1, 046 million
Cash
Raw Materials
Receivables
Inventories
Finished
Goods
Inventories
If you prepare the firm’s balance sheet at the beginning of the process, you see cash (a current asset).
If you delay a little, you find the cash replaced first by inventories of raw materials and then by
inventories of finished goods (also current assets). When the goods are sold, the inventories give way
to accounts receivable (another current asset) and finally, when the customers pay their bills, the firm
takes out its profit and replenishes the cash balance.
A firm’s operating cycle (OC) is the time from the beginning of the production process to collection of
cash from the sale of the finished product. The operating cycle encompasses two major short-term
asset categories, inventory and accounts receivable. It is measured in elapsed time by summing the
average age of inventory (AAI) and the average collection period (ACP):
However, the process of producing and selling a product also includes the purchase of
production inputs (raw materials) on account, which results in accounts payable. Accounts
payable reduce the number of days a firm’s resources are tied up in the operating cycle. The
time it takes to pay the accounts payable, measured in days, is the average payment period
(APP). The operating cycle less the average payment period yields the cash conversion cycle. In
other words, first the raw materials must be purchased, processed, and sold, and then the bills
must be collected. However, the net time that the company is out of cash is reduced by the time
it takes to pay its own bills. As stated above the length of time between the firm’s payment for
its raw materials and the collection of payment from the customer is known as the firm’s cash
conversion cycle (CCC).
To calculate the operating and the cash cycle, we need to know how to find the values
of Average age of inventory (Inventory period), Average collections period (accounts
receivable period) and Average payment period (accounts payable period)
The following data has been extracted from Spinot Company
Income Statement Data Statement of Financial Position Data
Year Ending, End of First Quarter End of First Quarter
First Quarter 1999 1998 1999
K’ Billion K’ Billion K’ Billion
Sales 3,968 Inventory K 470 K468
Cost of goods sold 3,518 Accounts receivable 471 481
Accounts payable 304
303
We can use the data in the table above to answer four questions.
How long on average does it take Spinot Company to produce and sell their product?
How long does it take to collect bills?
How long does it take to pay bills?
And what is the cash conversion cycle?
The delays in collecting cash are given by the inventory and receivables period. The delay in paying bills is
given by the payables period. The net delay in collecting payments is the cash conversion cycle.
It is therefore taking this company an average of 2 months from the time they lay out money on inventories to
collect payment from their customers.
CASH MANAGEMENT
Cash is the lifeblood of economic activity. Without cash, business cannot
operate. Firms maintain cash balances for four primary purposes
1. Transactions needs
2. Precautionary purposes
3. Speculative purposes
4. Compensating balance purposes
Firms require cash balances to pay balances owed to suppliers, wages owed to employees, taxes
payable to governments, etc. Cash balances maintained to conduct such transactions reflect the
firm’s transactions demand for cash. This transactions demand for cash balances accounts for the
majority of balances maintained by most firms.
Some firms may maintain some cash balances for emergencies or simply to ensure that they
never run out. These precautionary balances or cash reserves usually account for a smaller
percentage of the total levels maintained by the firm.
In addition, many firms maintain speculative balances to enable themselves to quickly take
advantage of new investments, shifts in interest rates and fluctuations in exchange rates. For
example, when interest rates are low, firms maintain higher speculative cash balances; when
interest rates rise, firms commit their speculative balances to the higher yield securities.
Firms that maintain checking accounts with commercial banks are frequently required to
maintain minimum balances with their banks. These minimum balances, referred to as
compensating balances, are required to compensate commercial banks for the checking account
services they provide the firm or to avoid fees normally imposed for checking and other bank
services. Such compensating balances generally do not accrue interest or accrue interest at
OPTIMAL CASH BALANCES
After all this discussion, the question that should be in every student’s mind is “is there an
optimal cash balance that a firm should maintain”? Different companies in different industries
might prefer different optimal cash balances but there are some models that have been
developed to help calculate the optimal cash balance.
Perhaps, the more popular of the cash management models are based on the Baumol and
Miller-Orr models. As with all financial constructs, these cash management models require
several assumptions which are often not applicable in reality. In many cases, the fact that
certain assumptions may be violated in reality will barely affect the use or implications of
these models. However, if necessary, these models are simple and flexible enough to be easily
adapted to more realistic conditions. Equally important is that these models make it easy to
see how certain factors impact the firm’s optimal cash balances.
Both the Baumol and Miller-Orr models assume that the firm incurs an opportunity cost by
maintaining cash balances. That is, when the firm maintains a cash balance, it forgoes the
opportunity to invest money in interest or return-bearing assets. Thus, the firm's opportunity
cost is the foregone interest or returns on money it could have invested more profitably
elsewhere
Larger cash balances will imply larger foregone interest opportunity costs.
Secondly, these models assume that the firm incurs transactions costs when it
liquidates assets in order to obtain cash. (The Miller-Orr model assumes that
the firm also incurs transactions costs when it converts surplus cash to return-
bearing securities.) That is, when the firm sells assets (such as marketable
securities) to replenish its cash balances, it incurs a transactions cost (such as
a fixed brokerage fee). The more often the firm must transact to replenish its
cash balances, the higher will be its total transactions costs. Hence, these
models are structured to find the cash balance that minimizes the total costs
associated with maintaining and obtaining cash.
The Baumol Cash Management Model
This model applies the Economical Order Quantity (EOQ) model to cash. It assumes that
the cash requirements are funded by the sale of “parcels” of securities e.g. Treasury
bills. The model calculates the optimal size for the “parcel” of securities. This is known
as the economic transfer”. Under this model, the optimal cash order quantity is given by
following equation
Where
S= cash needs for the period
F= transaction costs (brokerage, commission etc) of selling a “parcel” of securities
H= opportunity cost of holding cash (interest forgone on securities)
Example
Bwalya plc requires K 6,000 per annum. Any cash raised will have an associated fixed
cost of K 300 and an interest rate of 15%. The interest rate on short-term securities is
10%.Advise Bwalya as to the level of finance it should raise at any one time.
Bwalya plc should raise this level of cash every 1.4 years
(8,485/6,000)
MILLER-ORR MODEL
This model sets out the upper and lower limits to the level of cash a firm should hold.
When these points are reached the firm either buys or sells short-term marketable
securities in order to reverse the trend of cash flows.
Steps involved in using the model are
i. Determine the lower level of cash the firm is happy to have. This is generally set at
a minimum safety, though in theory it could be zero
ii. Determine the variation in cash flows of the firm (perhaps over a 3 or 6 month
period)
iii.Calculate the spread of transactions, using the following formula.
Minimum
Example
Pat ltd faces an interest rate of 0.5% per day and its brokers charge K 75
for each transaction in short-term securities. Their managing director has
stated that the minimum cash balance that is acceptable is K 2,000, and
that the variance of cash flows on a daily basis is K 16,000. What is the
maximum level of cash the firm should hold and at what point should it
start to purchase or sell securities?
In answering this question, let’s go through the steps that we discussed above
i. Determine the lower level of cash the firm is happy to have. The minimum cash
balance that has been stated by their managing director is K 2,000
ii. Determine the variation in cash flows of the firm (perhaps over a 3 or 6 month period).
This is also given as K 16,000
iii. Calculate the spread of transactions, using the following formula.
iv. Calculate the upper limit=spread + lower limit= 1,694 + 2,000= K 3,694
v. In order to minimise the costs of holding cash, securities should be sold when a pre-
calculated level is reached. This level is the sum of the lower limit and 1/3 of the
spread. = K 2,000 + (1/3 x K 1,694)= K 2,565
Thus the firm is aiming for a cash holding of K 2,565 meaning that if the balance of cash
reaches K 3,694 the firm should buy K 3,964 – K 2,565= K 1,129 of marketable
securities, and if it falls to K 2,000 then K 565 of securities should be sold.
MANAGEMENT OF INVENTORIES
The first component of the cash conversion cycle is the average age of inventory. The objective
for managing inventory, as noted earlier, is to turn over inventory as quickly as possible without
losing sales from stock-outs.
Reasons for holding Inventory include
i. To meet demand by acting as a buffer in times of unusually high consumption ( to reduce
stock outs)
ii. To ensure continuous production.
iii. To take advantage of quantity discounts at the point of purchase
iv. To buy in ahead of a shortage or ahead of a price rise
v. For technical reasons (e.g. Maturing whisky in casks or keeping oil in pipelines)
vi. To reduce ordering costs
Costs associated with inventory
Inventory does come with cost and the following are the main costs associates with
inventory
• Purchase price- This comprises the purchase price plus an unrecoverable tariffs and
taxes incurred in the procurement of inventory.
• Holding costs- This includes cost of capital tied up in the inventory, Insurance costs,
deterioration, obsolescence and theft, warehousing and stores administration
• Re-order costs- This includes transport costs and clerical and administration
expenses;
• Shortage costs- This encompasses production stoppages caused by lack of raw
materials, stock-out costs for finished goods (anything from a delayed sale to a lost
customer) and emergency re-order costs
• Systems costs- people and computers
Common techniques for managing inventory
Numerous techniques are available for effectively managing the firm’s inventory.
Here we briefly consider four commonly used techniques.
ABC System
The aim of the ABC system is to reduce the work involved in inventory control in a
business which may have several thousand types of inventory items.
A firm using the ABC inventory system divides its inventory into three groups: A, B,
and C. The A group includes those items with the largest monetary investment.
Typically, this group consists of 20 percent of the firm’s inventory items but 80percent of
its investment in inventory in terms. The B group consists of items that account for the
next largest investment in inventory. The C group consists of a large number of items
that require a relatively small investment. The inventory group of each item determines
the item’s level of monitoring.
Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model
The optimal order size for inventory items is the economic order quantity (EOQ)
model. The EOQ model considers various costs of inventory and then determines what
order size minimizes total inventory cost.
EOQ assumes that the relevant costs of inventory can be divided into order costs and
carrying costs. (The model excludes the actual cost of the inventory item.)
Graphically, the EOQ is depicted as follows
Example
Annual demand for material is 300 units, the ordering cost K2 per
order, the units cost K 20 each and it is estimated that the
carrying costs will be 15% per annum. Determine the EOQ and
the numbers of orders to be placed per year.
𝐸𝑂𝑄=
√
2𝑥2 𝑥300
3
=20𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠
MANAGEMENT OF ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLES
The second component of the cash conversion cycle is the average collection period.
This period is the average length of time from a sale on credit until the payment
becomes usable funds for the firm. The average collection period has two parts. The
first part is the time from the sale until the customer mails the payment. The second
part is the time from when the payment is mailed until the firm has the collected funds
in its bank account. The first part of the average collection period involves managing
the credit available to the firm’s customers, and the second part involves collecting and
processing payments.
Credit selection and standards
Credit selection involves application of techniques for determining which customers should
receive credit. This process involves evaluating the customer’s creditworthiness and comparing it
to the firm’s credit standards, its minimum requirements for extending credit to a customer.
Five C’s of Credit
One popular credit selection technique is the five C’s of credit, which provides a framework for
in-depth credit analysis. Because of the time and expense involved, this credit selection method
is used for large-dollar credit requests. The five C’s are
1. Character: The applicant’s record of meeting past obligations.
2. Capacity: The applicant’s ability to repay the requested credit, as judged in terms of financial
statement analysis focused on cash flows available to repay debt obligations.
3. Capital: The applicant’s debt relative to equity.
4. Collateral: The amount of assets the applicant has available for use in securing the credit. The
larger the amount of available assets, the greater the chance that a firm will recover funds if
the applicant defaults.
5. Conditions: Current general and industry-specific economic conditions, and any unique
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE MANAGEMENT
Accounts payable are the major source of unsecured short-term financing for
business firms. They result from transactions in which merchandise is purchased but no
formal note is signed to show the purchaser’s liability to the seller. The purchaser in
effect agrees to pay the supplier the amount required in accordance with
credit terms normally stated on the supplier’s invoice. The discussion of accounts
payable here is presented from the viewpoint of the purchaser.
Role in the Cash Conversion Cycle
The average payment period is the final component of the cash conversion cycle.The
average payment period has two parts: (1) the time from the purchase of raw materials
until the firm mails the payment and (2) payment float time (the time it takes after the
firm mails its payment until the supplier has withdrawn spendable funds from the firm’s
account).
The firm’s management of the time that elapses between its purchase of raw
materials and its mailing payment to the supplier is termed as accounts
payable management.
When the seller of goods charges no interest and offers no discount
to the buyer for early payment, the buyer’s goal is to pay as slowly as
possible without damaging its credit rating. This means that accounts
should be paid on the last day possible, given the supplier’s stated credit terms.
For example, if the terms are net 30, then the account should be paid 30 days
from the beginning of the credit period, which is typically either the date of
invoice or the end of the month (EOM) in which the purchase was made. This
allows for the maximum use of an interest-free loan from the supplier
and will not damage the firm’s credit rating (because the account is paid
within the stated credit terms). In addition, some firms offer an explicit or
implicit “grace period” that extends a few days beyond the stated payment
date; if taking advantage of that grace period does no harm to the buyer’s
relationship with the seller, the buyer will typically take advantage of the grace
period.
DIVIDEND POLICIES AND THEORIES
26/04/24
A company has 120,000 ordinary shares in issue. It is expected that total profit after
tax next year will be K600,000.The current company policy is zero dividends. Some
directors have complained that this zero dividend policy will affect the current share
price of K50.The company has proposed to give 75% of its retained earnings next year
as dividends. The company has accounting rate of return of 10%.
REQUIRED;
(a)With supporting calculations, explain the effect that the proposal will have on the
share price.
(5 Marks)
(b)Describe the dividend theory that your calculations in (a) above supports and
describe alternative theories related to dividends. (15 Marks)
Tailoka is a large company with gearing debt to equity ratio by market values of
1:2.The company’s profit after tax in the most recent year were K2,700,000 of which
K1,070,000 was distributed as ordinary dividends. The Company has 5 million issued
ordinary shares which are currently trading on the LUSE at K3.21.Corporate tax rate is
35% and corporate debt is risk free.Tailoka would want to undertake a new capital
project. The project is a major diversification into a new industry. You have been tasked
to provide estimates of the discount rate to be used in evaluating this new investment.
You have been given the following information showing estimates for the next five
years.
[Total:30 Marks]
What is “distribution policy”?
P1 – P0 + D1
Return =
P0
P1 – P0 D1
= +
P0 P0
Capital Dividend
= gain + yield
Dilemma
P1 – P0 D1
Return = +
P0 P0
Capital Dividend
gain yield
Theory Implication
Irrelevance Any payout OK
Bird-in-the-hand Set high payout
Tax preference Set low payout
Which theory is most correct?
325
Using the Residual Model to
Calculate Distributions Paid
326
Application of the Residual Distribution Approach: Data for SSC
327
Application of the Residual Distribution
Approach
(b)Explain any three factors that directors of any company should consider
when developing a dividend policy for a company. (12
Marks)
[Total 25 Marks]
Stock Repurchases
• Repurchases: Buying own stock back from stockholders.
• Reasons for repurchases:
– As an alternative to distributing cash as dividends.
– To dispose of one-time cash from an asset sale.
– To make a large capital structure change.
– To use when employees exercise stock options.
333
The Procedures of a Repurchase
• Firm announces intent to repurchase stock.
• Three ways to purchase:
– Have broker/trustee purchase on open market
over period of time.
– Make a tender offer to shareholders.
– Make a block (targeted) repurchase.
• Firm doesn’t have to complete its announced intent
to repurchase.
334
Capital Budgeting Decision-making under Certainty:
A condition of certainty exists when the decision-maker knows with reasonable
certainty
1.what the alternatives are,
2.what conditions are associated with each alternative,
3. the outcome of each alternative.
Such conditions exist in case of routine and repetitive decisions concerning the
day-to-day operations of the business.
Decision-making under Risk:
Under a state of risk, the decision maker has incomplete information about
available alternatives but has a good idea of the probability of outcomes for each
alternative.
While making decisions under a state of risk, managers must determine the
probability associated with each alternative on the basis of the available
information and his experience.
NATURE OF RISK
It would be rare for the outcome of a business decision to be known with certainty in advance. A
measure of risk or uncertainty is present in almost all circumstances in business.
Decision theory attempts to distinguish the two concepts i.e. the concept of risk and the concept
of uncertainty.
Risks exist where several alternative outcomes are possible, but previous experiences enables the
decision maker to give (assign) a probability to the likely outcome of each alternative.
Uncertainty on the other hand refers to a situation where a decision maker has no previous
experience and therefore no statistical evidence on which to base his predictions.
Decision makers themselves may have differing attitudes to risk. They may be risk neutral, risk-
seekers or risk averse.
The difference between these three types is a function of attitude towards variability of returns
around an expected value (EV). A risk neutral decision maker ignores variability and is
concerned only with the expected values of outcomes.
Decision Trees
The decision tree is one way or method of analyzing risk and uncertainty. The
decision tree model is only as good as the information it contains. The main difficult
is of course, as always, accurately providing the probabilities that determine the
uncertainties involved in the investments.
The decision tree is a pictorial representation of the probabilistic information to
manage and aid decision making. The technique is usually used to evaluate
alternative investment plans.
The illustration below gives a simple example to illustrate a diagrammatic
representation of the decision tree.
Illustration;
Return in Investment C Probabilities Investment D Probabilities
Yr 1 40, 000 0.5 (20, 000) 0.3
Yr 2 120, 000 0.5 180, 000 0.7
When the expected profit is calculated, it appears that plan D would be the best
option. But the plan has a 0.3 chance of a loss K 20,000,000 whereas plan C will
always generate a profit.
Notation of A Tree Diagram
The tree diagram has squares and circles as symbols that take on extraordinary
meaning;
The square represents a point at which a decision is made; in this case there is only one
decision to be made – the choice between plan C and D at the onset. The circle
represents a point at which a chance event takes place. The lines, the branches of the
tree represent the logical sequence between possible outcomes. The values under the
profit heading in the diagram below represent the possible outcomes. The “payoff”
figures are then calculated by multiplying the possible outcomes by their probabilities of
taking place.
Fly Co is considering undertaking a new project. Market research has shown that a
good project can increase profit by 30%, an average one by 20% and a poor one by
10%. Experience has shown that the company has invested in a good project 35% of
the time, an average one 45% of the time and a poor one 20% of the time. The
company's normal profits are K180,000 per annum and cost of the new project would
be K40,000.
essf
Succ
Not Successful 0.7
35
0. 0 .2
d
ful K16,200
oo
s
es
G
Average 0. c
180,000 45 Suc
No
tS
ucc
Po
ess
or
ful
0.
0.8
2
l 0 . 1 K3,600
Successfu
Not S
Total = K38,700
ucc
The manager does not possess complete information about the alternatives
and whatever information is available, may not be completely reliable. In
the face of such uncertainty, managers need to make certain assumptions
about the situation in order to provide a reasonable framework for decision-
making. They have to depend upon their judgment and experience for
making decisions.
Most significant decisions made in today’s complex environment are
formulated under a state of uncertainty.
Risk is objective but uncertainty is subjective; risk can be measured or
quantified but uncertainty cannot be.
The decision making under risk process is as follows:
a. Use the information you have to assign your beliefs (called subjective probabilities) regarding
each state of the nature, p(s),
b. Each action has a payoff associated with each of the states of nature X(a,s),
c. We compute the expected payoff, also called the return (R), for each action
d. We accept the principle that we should minimize (or maximize) the expected payoff,
e. Execute the action which minimizes (or maximize)
The payoffs (in Kwacha) of three Projects A1, A2 and A3 and the possible states of economy S1, S2 and S3 are
given below :
The probabilities of the states of nature are 0.3, 0.4 and 0.3 respectively.
Determine which project to undertake using the expected value and
expected Opportunity Loss methods.
Expected Monetary Value
State of economy Probability Projects
A1 A2 A3
S1 0.3 -20 -50 200
S2 0.4 200 -100 -50
S3 0.3 400 600 300
.
Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)
State of economy Probability Projects
A1 A2 A3
S1 0.3 220 250 0
S2 0.4 0 300 250
S3 0.3 200 0 300
.
This indicates that the optimal act is again A1.
Decision making under Uncertainty
Events S1 S2 S3 S4
Actions
A1 27 12 14 26
A2 45 17 35 20
A3 52 36 29 15
What price would be set if Musa were to use a maximin decision criterion?
K500
What price would be set if Musa were to use a minimax regret decision criterion?
We can draw up an opportunity loss table.
Variable cost Price
K425 K500 K600
K170 – K14,100 K74,400 (W1)
K210 – K3,300 K51,200 (W2)
K260 K10,200 – K32,400 (W3)
Minimax regret K10,200 K14,100 K74,400
Minimax regret strategy (price of K425) is that which minimises the maximum regret (K10,200).
If the probabilities of the variable costs are K170: 0.4, K210: 0.25 and K260: 0.35, which price
would the risk-neutral decision maker choose?
Expected values calculations:
K425: (255,000 × 0.4) + (215,000 × 0.25) + (165,000 × 0.35) = K213,500
K500: (240,900 × 0.4) + (211,700 × 0.25) + (175,200 × 0.35) = K210,605
K600: (180,600 × 0.4) + (163,800 × 0.25) + (142,800 × 0.35) = K163,170
K425
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analyses can be used in any situation so long as the relationship
between the key variables can be established. Typically this involves changing
the value of a variable and seeing how the results are affected.
Definition
a) To estimate by how much costs and revenues would need to differ from their
estimated values before the decision would change.
K’000 K’000
Sales (2,000 units) 8,000
Variable Costs:
material 4,000
labour 2,000
(6,000)
Contribution 2,000
Required:
This information must be adjusted to allow for selling price inflation of 4% per year and
variable cost inflation of 2·5% per year. Fixed costs, which are wholly attributable to the
project, have already been adjusted for inflation. Bauze pays profit tax of 30% per year
one year in arrears.
Required:
(a) Calculate the net present value of Project 1 and comment on whether this project is
financially acceptable to Bauze. (12 marks)
Project 2
Bauze plans to replace an existing machine and must choose between two machines.
Machine 1 has an initial cost of K200,000 and will have a scrap value of K25,000 after
four years. Machine 2 has an initial cost of K225,000 and will have a scrap value of
K50,000 after three years. Annual maintenance costs of the two machines are as
follows:
Year 1 2 3 4
Machine 1 (K/year) 25,000 29,000 32,000 35,000
Machine 2 (K/year) 15,000 20,000 25,000
Where relevant, all information relating to Project 2 has already been adjusted to
include expected future inflation. Taxation and capital allowances must be ignored in
relation to Machine 1 and Machine 2.
Other information
Bauze has a nominal before-tax weighted average cost of capital of 12% and a nominal
after-tax weighted average cost of capital of 7%.
Required:
(b) Calculate the equivalent annual costs of Machine 1 and Machine 2, and discuss
which machine should be purchased. (6 marks)
(c) Critically discuss the use of sensitivity analysis and probability analysis as ways of
including risk in the investment appraisal process, referring in your answer to the
relative effectiveness of each method. (7 marks)
Solution:
a) If incremental fixed costs are more than 25% above estimate, the
project would make a loss.
b) If unit costs of materials are more than 10% above estimate the
project would make a loss.
c) Similarly, the project would be sensitive to an increase in unit labour
cost of more than 20% above estimate.
(a)The method requires that changes in each key variable are isolated but
management is more interested in the combination of the effects of
changes in two (2) or more key variables.
Looking at factors in isolation is unrealistic since they are often
interdependent.
(b)Sensitivity analysis does not examine the probability that any particular
variation in costs or revenues might occur
Koko Plc is a manufacturing company. The company is considering launching a
product. The following estimates have been made:
ASSETS
K’000
Non Current Assets 23,600
Current Assets 8,400
Total Assets 32,000
(a)Calculate the value of one ordinary Share in Linda,using a net asset based
valuation method.
(b) If the estimated replacement cost of non current assets is K40,000,00 Calculate
the value of one ordinary Share in Linda
K’000
Non Current Assets 23,600
Current Assets 8,400
Less 6% loan (8,000)
Less Current Liabilities (4,800)
Net Asset Value 19,200
Example
A company has just paid a dividend of K250,000.It has 2 million shares in issue.The
current return to share holders in the same industry is 12% although it is expected
that an additional risk premium of 2% will be applicable to the Company being a
smaller and unlisted company.
Required
Calculate the expected valuation of the company if
(a) Dividends are expected to be constant
(b) Dividends are expected to grow at 4% per annum
(c) Dividends are expected to stay constant for three years and then grow at 4% per
annum thereafter.
(a) Dividends are expected to be constant
Po = 250,000/0.14 = K1.786 million or K1.786 million / 2 million shares = 0.893 per
share
(c ) Dividends are expected to stay constant for three years and then grow at 4% per
annum thereafter.
First 3 years
Present value of expected dividends = K250,000 AF 1-3 (14%) = K0.580
Perpetuity from year 4
[(250,000x1.04)/0.14-0.04]Xdf3(14%) =K1.755 million
Total value = 0.580 + 1.755 = K2.335 or K2.335 million /2million shares = K1.17 per
share
P/E Valuation Method
This method values a business by applying a suitable P/E ratio to the business’s
earnings (profit after tax).
For unlisted company which have no market driven P/E ratio,industry average or one
for a similar company will be used as a proxy.
If there is no P/E ratio,Earnings yield which is the reciprocal of P/E ratio can be used.
Value of a company = Total earnings/Earnings yield
Value per share = EPS/Earnings Yield
EXAMPLE.
Mumba is an unquoted entity with a recently reported after ax earnings of
K3,840,000.It has issued 1 million ordinary shares. A similar listed entity has a P/E
ratio of 9.
Required
Calculate the value of one share in Mumba using the P/E basis of valuation.
P/E basis of valuation
Calculate the value of the company’s equity using the DCF Basis of valuation
Year K
1 120,000
2. 100,000
3. 140,000
4. 50,0000
5 onwards 130,000
Discounting the cash flows at 12% result into present value of K392,050
This ignores cash flows after 5 .Assuming the year 5 cash flow continues to
infinity,this has a present value of:
130,000/0.12 = K1,083,333
This has a present value today of
K1,083,333 x o.567 = K614,250
This gives a total present value of equity of K614,250 + K392,050 = K1,006,300
With 2 million shares,K1,006,300/2,000,000 =K0.5 per share.
Eat Co is forecast to generate a constant stream of post tax cash flows (after interest
charges) of K10 m per year.The company is not listed and no cost of capital has been
calculated.However,a similar listed entity Food co which operates in the same business
sector has a cost of equity of 10%.
Food co is all equity financed where as Eat co has 20% debt and 80% equity by market
values.The tax rate is 30% and the yield on Eat’s debt is 4%.
Calculate the value of Eat co using the discounted cash flow method.
Ke = Keu + (Keu-Kd)(1-t)(Vd/Ve
= 10% +(10%-4%)(1-0.3)20/80
= 11.05%
The value of Eat co’s equity is K10/0.1105 = K90.5m
The following information is available for MCK co.
Statement of Profit or Loss for the most recent accounting period
K’Million
Revenue 285.1
Cost of sales (120.9)
Gross Profit 164.2
Operating expenses (including depreciation of K12.3 Million) (66.9)
Profit from operations 97.3
Finance costs (10.0)
Profit before Tax 87.3
Taxation (21.6)
Profit after tax 65.7
Other information
1.Selling prices are expected to rise by 3% pa for the next 3 years and then stay constant there
after.
2. Sales volume are expected to rise by 5% pa for the next 3 years and then stay constant there
after.
3.Assume that cost of sales is a completely variable cost,and that other operating expenses
including depreciation are expected to stay constant.
4.MCK co invested K15 million in non current assets and K2 million in working capital last
year.These annual amounts are expected to stay constant in future
5.MCK co’s financing costs are expected to stay constant each year in the future.
6.The marginal rate of tax is 28,payable in the year in which the liability arises.
7.Assume that book depreciation equals tax depreciation.
8.MCK co has 500 millino shares in issue.
9.The WACC of MCK co is 9% and its cost of equity is 12%
Calculate the value of the equity in MCK in total and per share.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 etc
K’m K’m K’m
Sales (x1.03x1.05) 308.3 333.5 360.6
Cost of Sales (x1.05) (126.9) (133.3) (140.0)
Gross Profit 181.4 200.2 220.6
Operating expenses ( 66.9) (66.9) (66.9)
Financing costs (10.0) (10.0) (10.0)
Forecast profit before tax 104.5 123.3 143.7
Less Taxation(28%) (29.3) (34.5) (40.2)
Add back depreciation 12.3 12.3 12.3
Less Capital expenditure (15.0) (15.0) (15.0)
Less working capital investment (2.0) (2.0) (2.0)
Forecast free cash flows 70.5 84.1 98.8
DF 12% 0.893 0.797 0.797/0.12
Present value 63.0 67.0 656.2
NPV = K786.2 MILLION.
This is the total value of the equity in MCK Co.
Value per share is K786.2 m/500 m= K1.57