Statistics for

Business and Economics

7th Edition

Chapter 3

Probability

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-1
 Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be
able to:
 Explain basic probability concepts and definitions

 Use a Venn diagram or tree diagram to illustrate

simple probabilities
 Apply common rules of probability

 Compute conditional probabilities

 Determine whether events are statistically

independent
 Use Bayes’ Theorem for conditional probabilities

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-2
 3.1
Important Terms

 Random Experiment – a process leading to an

uncertain outcome
 Basic Outcome – a possible outcome of a
random experiment
 Sample Space – the collection of all possible
outcomes of a random experiment
 Event – any subset of basic outcomes from the
sample space

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-3
 Important Terms
(continued)

 Intersection of Events – If A and B are two

events in a sample space S, then the
intersection, A ∩ B, is the set of all outcomes in
S that belong to both A and B

A AB B

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-4
 Important Terms
(continued)

 A and B are Mutually Exclusive Events if they

have no basic outcomes in common
 i.e., the set A ∩ B is empty

A B

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-5
 Important Terms
(continued)

 Union of Events – If A and B are two events in a

sample space S, then the union, A U B, is the
set of all outcomes in S that belong to either
A or B
S The entire shaded
area represents
A B AUB

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-6
 Important Terms
(continued)

 Events E1, E2, … Ek are Collectively Exhaustive

events if E1 U E2 U . . . U Ek = S
 i.e., the events completely cover the sample space

 The Complement of an event A is the set of all

basic outcomes in the sample space that do not
belong to A. The complement is denoted A
S
A
A

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-7
 Examples
Let the Sample Space be the collection of
all possible outcomes of rolling one die:

S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Let A be the event “Number rolled is even”

Let B be the event “Number rolled is at least 4”
Then
A = [2, 4, 6] and B = [4, 5, 6]
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-8
 Examples
(continued)

S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] A = [2, 4, 6] B = [4, 5, 6]

Complements:
A  [1, 3, 5] B  [1, 2, 3]

Intersections:
A  B  [4, 6] A  B  [5]
Unions:
A  B  [2, 4, 5, 6]
A  A  [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]  S
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-9
 3.2
Probability

 Probability – the chance that 1 Certain

an uncertain event will occur
(always between 0 and 1)

.5

0 Impossible

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-10
 Assessing Probability
 There are three approaches to assessing the
probability of an uncertain event:

1. classical probability
NA number of outcomes that satisfy the event
probability of event A  
N total number of outcomes in the sample space

 Assumes all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to

occur

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-11
 Counting the Possible Outcomes

 Use the Combinations formula to determine the

number of combinations of n things taken k at a
time

n!
C  n
k
k! (n  k)!
 where
 n! = n(n-1)(n-2)…(1)
 0! = 1 by definition

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-12
 Assessing Probability
Three approaches (continued)
2. relative frequency probability
nA number of events in the population that satisfy event A
probabilit y of event A  
n total number of events in the population
 the limit of the proportion of times that an event A occurs in a large number of
trials, n

3. subjective probability
an individual opinion or belief about the probability of occurrence

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-13
 3.3
Probability Rules

 The Complement rule:

P(A)  1 P(A) i.e., P(A)  P(A)  1

 The Addition rule:

 The probability of the union of two events is

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A  B)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-14
 Addition Rule Example

Consider a standard deck of 52 cards, with four

suits: ♥♣♦♠
Let event A = card is an Ace
Let event B = card is from a red suit

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-15
 Addition Rule Example
(continued)

P(Red U Ace) = P(Red) + P(Ace) - P(Red ∩ Ace)

= 26/52 + 4/52 - 2/52 = 28/52

Don’t count
the two red
Color aces twice!
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-16
 Conditional Probability
 A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
The conditional
P(A  B)
P(A | B)  probability of A
P(B) given that B has
occurred

P(A  B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B
P(A) given that A has
occurred

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-17
 Conditional Probability Example

 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player
(CD). 20% of the cars have both.

 What is the probability that a car has a CD

player, given that it has AC ?

i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-18
 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air
conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).
20% of the cars have both.
CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0

P(CD  AC) .2
P(CD | AC)    .2857
P(AC) .7
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-19
 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of
these, 20% have a CD player. 20% of 70% is 28.57%.

CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0

P(CD  AC) .2
P(CD | AC)    .2857
P(AC) .7

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-20
 Multiplication Rule

 Multiplication rule for two events A and B:

P(A  B)  P(A | B) P(B)

 also

P(A  B)  P(B | A) P(A)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-21
 Multiplication Rule Example
P(Red ∩ Ace) = P(Red| Ace)P(Ace)
 2  4  2
    
 4  52  52
number of cards that are red and ace 2
 
total number of cards 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-22
 Statistical Independence
 Two events are statistically independent if
and only if:
P(A  B)  P(A) P(B)
 Events A and B are independent when the probability of one
event is not affected by the other event
 If A and B are independent, then

P(A | B)  P(A) if P(B)>0

P(B | A)  P(B) if P(A)>0

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-23
 Statistical Independence Example
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air
conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).
20% of the cars have both.
CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0

 Are the events AC and CD statistically independent?

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-24
 Statistical Independence Example
(continued)
CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0
P(AC ∩ CD) = 0.2

P(AC) = 0.7
P(AC)P(CD) = (0.7)(0.4) = 0.28
P(CD) = 0.4

P(AC ∩ CD) = 0.2 ≠ P(AC)P(CD) = 0.28

So the two events are not statistically independent
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-25
 3.4
Bivariate Probabilities
Outcomes for bivariate events:

B1 B2 ... Bk

A1 P(A1B1) P(A1B2) ... P(A1Bk)

A2 P(A2B1) P(A2B2) ... P(A2Bk)

. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .

Ah P(AhB1) P(AhB2) ... P(AhBk)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-26
 Joint and
Marginal Probabilities

 The probability of a joint event, A ∩ B:

number of outcomes satisfying A and B
P(A  B) 
total number of elementary outcomes

 Computing a marginal probability:

P(A)  P(A  B1 )  P(A  B 2 )    P(A  Bk )


Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-27
 Marginal Probability Example

P(Ace)
2 2 4
 P(Ace  Red)  P(Ace  Black)   
52 52 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-28
 Using a Tree Diagram
.2
D .7 P(AC ∩ CD) = .2
Given AC or Has
C
no AC: .7
C ) = D oe
P(A not
s P(AC ∩ CD) = .5
C .5
A h a ve
H as CD .7
All
Cars
Do .2
e
n ot s .3
h av P(A C D P(AC ∩ CD) = .2
eA C )= . Has
C 3
D oe
s
not .1 P(AC ∩ CD) = .1
h a ve
CD .3 Ch. 3-29
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
 Odds

 The odds in favor of a particular event are

given by the ratio of the probability of the
event divided by the probability of its
complement
 The odds in favor of A are

P(A) P(A)
odds  
1- P(A) P(A)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-30
 Odds: Example
 Calculate the probability of winning if the odds
of winning are 3 to 1:
3 P(A)
odds  
1 1- P(A)

 Now multiply both sides by 1 – P(A) and solve for P(A):

3 x (1- P(A)) = P(A)

3 – 3P(A) = P(A)
3 = 4P(A)
P(A) = 0.75
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-31
 Overinvolvement Ratio
 The probability of event A1 conditional on event B1
divided by the probability of A1 conditional on activity B2
is defined as the overinvolvement ratio:
P(A 1 | B1 )
P(A 1 | B 2 )

 An overinvolvement ratio greater than 1 implies that

event A1 increases the conditional odds ration in favor of
B1: P(B1 | A 1 ) P(B1 )

P(B 2 | A 1 ) P(B 2 )

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-32
 3.5
Bayes’ Theorem
P(A | E i )P(E i )
P(E i | A) 
P(A)
P(A | E i )P(E i )

P(A | E 1 )P(E 1 )  P(A | E 2 )P(E 2 )    P(A | E k )P(E k )

 where:
Ei = ith event of k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
A = new event that might impact P(Ei)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-33
 Bayes’ Theorem Example

 A drilling company has estimated a 40%

chance of striking oil for their new well.
 A detailed test has been scheduled for more
information. Historically, 60% of successful
wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of
unsuccessful wells have had detailed tests.
 Given that this well has been scheduled for a
detailed test, what is the probability
that the well will be successful?

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-34
 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

 Let S = successful well

U = unsuccessful well
 P(S) = .4 , P(U) = .6 (prior probabilities)
 Define the detailed test event as D
 Conditional probabilities:
P(D|S) = .6 P(D|U) = .2
 Goal is to find P(S|D)

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-35
 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

Apply Bayes’ Theorem:

P(D | S)P(S)
P(S | D) 
P(D | S)P(S)  P(D | U)P(U)
(.6)(.4)

(.6)(.4)  (.2)(.6)
.24
  .667
.24  .12
So the revised probability of success (from the original estimate of .4),
given that this well has been scheduled for a detailed test, is .667

Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-36
 Chapter Summary
 Defined basic probability concepts
 Sample spaces and events, intersection and union
of events, mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events, complements
 Examined basic probability rules
 Complement rule, addition rule, multiplication rule
 Defined conditional, joint, and marginal probabilities
 Reviewed odds and the overinvolvement ratio
 Defined statistical independence
 Discussed Bayes’ theorem
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-37