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Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur, ranging from 0 to 1. It can be calculated theoretically based on outcomes, experimentally based on observations, or axiomatically using rules. Common probability concepts include equally likely events, complementary events, and the probability density function.

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Marc Kristjan Camarillo
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27 views15 pages

Presentation 1

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur, ranging from 0 to 1. It can be calculated theoretically based on outcomes, experimentally based on observations, or axiomatically using rules. Common probability concepts include equally likely events, complementary events, and the probability density function.

Uploaded by

Marc Kristjan Camarillo
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROBABILITY

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

Probability is simply how likely something is to happen.

In science, the probability of an event is a number that


indicates how likely the event is to occur. It is expressed
as a number in the range from 0 and 1, or, using
percentage notation, in the range from 0% to 100%. The
more likely it is that the event will occur, the higher its
probability.
Formula for Probability

Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total Number of outcomes


Examples

There are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow and 1 is blue. What is the
probability of picking a yellow pillow?

P = 2/6 = 1/3
There is a container full of coloured bottles, red, blue, green and orange. Some of
the bottles are picked out and displaced. Sumit did this 1000 times and got the
following results:

•No. of blue bottles picked out: 300


•No. of red bottles: 200
•No. of green bottles: 450
•No. of orange bottles: 50

a) What is the probability that Sumit will pick a green


bottle?
Ans: For every 1000 bottles picked out, 450 are green.
Therefore, P(green) = 450/1000 = 0.45

b) If there are 100 bottles in the container, how many of


them are likely to be green?
Ans: The experiment implies that 450 out of 1000 bottles are green.
Therefore, out of 100 bottles, 45 are green.
Probability Tree
The tree diagram helps to organize and visualize the different possible outcomes. Branches
and ends of the tree are two main positions. Probability of each branch is written on the
branch, whereas the ends are containing the final outcome. Tree diagrams are used to figure
out when to multiply and when to add.
Types of Probability

There are three major types of probabilities:


•Theoretical Probability
•Experimental Probability
•Axiomatic Probability
Theoretical Probability

It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability


is mainly based on the reasoning behind probability.

For example,

If a coin is tossed, the theoretical probability of getting a head will be ½.


Experimental Probability

It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The experimental probability can
be calculated based on the number of possible outcomes by the total number of trials.

For example,

If a coin is tossed 10 times and head is recorded 6 times then, the experimental probability for
heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.
Axiomatic Probability

In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all types. These axioms are
set by Kolmogorov and are known as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic approach to
probability, the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can be quantified.
Probability of an Event

Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or possible equally likely
ways. Then the probability of happening of the event or its success is expressed as;
P(E) = r/n

The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is expressed as:
P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)

E’ represents that the event will not occur.

Therefore, now we can say;

P(E) + P(E’) = 1

This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is equal to 1.
What are Equally Likely Events?

When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening, then they are called
equally likely events.
The results of a sample space are called equally likely if all of them have the same
probability of occurring.

For example,
If you throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6. Similarly, the probability of
getting all the numbers from 2,3,4,5 and 6, one at a time is 1/6. Hence, the following are
some examples of equally likely events when throwing a die:
•Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die
•Getting an even number and an odd number on a die
•Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die
are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal.
Complementary Events

The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states that an event will occur or
not. Like a person will come or not come to your house, getting a job or not getting a job,
etc. are examples of complementary events. Basically, the complement of an event
occurring in the exact opposite that the probability of it is not occurring.

Some more examples are:

•It will rain or not rain today


•The student will pass the exam or not pass.
•You win the lottery or you don’t.
Probability Density Function

The Probability Density Function (PDF) is the probability function which is


represented for the density of a continuous random variable lying between
a certain range of values.

Probability Density Function explains the normal distribution and how mean
and deviation exists. The standard normal distribution is used to create a
database or statistics, which are often used in science to represent the
real-valued variables, whose distribution is not known.

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