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CH 9 Reliability Index System Reliability - 2020

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4 views20 pages

CH 9 Reliability Index System Reliability - 2020

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chihphoto122
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Reliability Index, β

- The reliability index indicates failure probability in


the probability analysis

- failure probability: FOS < Critical FOS

- Reliability index <=> failure probability

Fc   F
 ; Fc   F
F

(normal distribution case)


1
Fc   F
β=|(1 - 2)| / 1 = 1 / 1 =1  ; Fc   F
F

PF=P [X<1] = Ф{(1-2)/1} = Ф(-1) = (2-1)/1= 0.158

=> β = |Z| ; when critical value < mean of FOS 2


3
Chapter 6 – Reliability of System

Introduction
- In the previous lectures, we have learned a few
approaches performing the probabilistic analyses, such
as MCS, FOSM and AFOSM

- In engineering projects, it is usually consisted of multiple


components/elements, and the failure probability of the
system is of more concern of the failure probability of the
component

- this chapter will introduce the concept in the


determination of failure probability for the system
System in Series

- As one of the components fails, the system fails; typical example


in civil engineering: truss structure
- Let’s illustrate the concept by using a two-component system:

PFa=0.1, PFb=0.2

Ra=0.9, Rb=0.8

i) fully independent case:

PFs= 1 – Rs

= 1 – (Ra) x (Rb) = 1 – 0.9 x 0.8 = 0.28

ii) fully dependent case:

=> when A fails, B must fail and vice versa

therefore, PFs = MAX {PFa, PFb} = 0.2


- governing equation for the system in series:

   
n
max Pf i  Pf  1   1  Pf i
i 1

where PFi is the failure probability of the ith component

- observations:
i) dependent case is the lower bound Pf of system
ii) independent case is the upper bound Pf of system

- in real practice, the level of dependency is difficult to


determine; therefore, the upper bound value is commonly
adopted to ensure a conservative design
System in Parallel

- All components fails, and the system fails; typical


example in civil engineering: piping
- Let’s illustrate the concept by using a two-component system:

PFa=0.1, PFb=0.2

Ra=0.9, Rb=0.8

i) fully independent case:

PFs= PFa x PFb

= 0.1 x 0.2 = 0.02

ii) fully dependent case:

=> when A fails, B must fail and vice versa

therefore, PFs = MAX {PFa, PFb} = 0.2


- governing equation for the system in parallel:

 P   P  
n

fi f  MAX Pf i
i 1

where PFi is the failure probability of the ith component

- observations:
i) dependent case is the upper bound Pf of system
ii) independent case is the lower bound Pf of system
Discussions

- when the failure probability of the component is low


enough, the system can be designed in series;
otherwise, the system needs to be designed in parallel to
increase the system reliability

- As expected, the real system is a mixture of series and


parallel
Example:
(system in series)
System in parallel:

Fully independent case:

Pf = 0.01 x 0.03 x 0.001 x 0.02 = 6 x 10-9


Mixture System:
Fault Tree Analysis
- “The reliability evaluation for complex engineering systems needs
the systematic method and the fault tree analysis is one of them

- The FTA is composed of a few events illustrated in a systematic


diagram
- Symbols used in FTA

- Basic Event: which cannot be decomposed into lower-level event

- Events to be decomposed further: which can be decomposed into lower-


level event

- Be aware that “OR” and “AND” look very similar


- Take the illustration for example to compute the failure probability:
(Note: the answer is identical using series-parallel systems)
Event Tree Analysis
- ETA is a diagram or table to show failure probability and failure
consequence altogether

impact of the initiating event

Consequence top event in FTA

- Risk = failure probability X failure consequence

- ETA has been used in the nuclear industry and other civil
engineering applications
Example of
ETA in
Nuclear
Industry

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