I. Overview of Financial Statement Analysis
I. Overview of Financial Statement Analysis
I. Overview of Financial Statement Analysis
COURSE OUTCOMES:
Discuss the purpose of financial analysis and reporting to assess business performance and financial
health of an organization in order to forecast future business activities and value of a firm.
Apply financial statement analysis tools and techniques to generate financial data.
analyze and interpret financial data and relevant information taken from financial statements
necessary to make important business decisions.
OVERVIEW OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS
OVERVIEW OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS
Business Analysis
is the evaluation of a company’s prospects and risks for the purpose of making business
decisions based on financial statements.
These business decisions extend to equity and debt valuation, credit risk assessment,
earnings predictions, audit testing, compensation negotiations, and countless other decisions.
Aids in making informed decisions by helping structure the decision task through an
evaluation of a company’s business environment, its strategies, and its financial position and
performance.
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Colgate’s strengths are the popularity of its brands and the highly diversified nature of its
operations. These strengths, together with the static nature of demand for consumer products,
give rise to Colgate’s financial stability, thereby reducing risk for its equity and debt investors.
For example, Colgate’s stock price weathered the bear market of 2008–2009, when the S&P
500 shed half its value (see Exhibit 1.2). The static nature of demand in the consumer products
markets, however, is a double-edged sword: while reducing sales volatility, it also fosters
fierce competition for market share. Colgate has been able to thrive in this competitive
environment by following a carefully defined business strategy that develops and increases
market leadership positions in certain key product categories and markets that are consistent
with the company’s core strengths and competencies and through relentless innovation.
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For example, equity investors desire answers to the following types of questions before deciding to buy, hold,
or sell Colgate stock:
What are Colgate’s future business prospects? Are Colgate’s markets expected to grow? What are Colgate’s
competitive strengths and weaknesses? What strategic initiatives has Colgate taken, or does it plan to take,
in response to business opportunities and threats?
What is Colgate’s earnings potential? What is its recent earnings performance? How sustainable are current
earnings? What are the “drivers” of Colgate’s profitability? What estimates can be made about earnings
growth?
What is Colgate’s current financial condition? What risks and rewards does Colgate’s financing structure
portray? Are Colgate’s earnings vulnerable to variability? Does Colgate possess the financial strength to
overcome a period of poor profitability?
How does Colgate compare with its competitors, both domestically and globally?
What is a reasonable price for Colgate’s stock?
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Creditors and lenders also desire answers to important questions before entering into lending
agreements with Colgate. Their questions include the following:
What are Colgate’s business plans and prospects? What are Colgate’s needs for future
financing?
What are Colgate’s likely sources for payment of interest and principal? How much cushion
does Colgate have in its earnings and cash flows to pay interest and principal?
What is the likelihood Colgate will be unable to meet its financial obligations? How volatile
are Colgate’s earnings and cash flows? Does Colgate have the finan-cial strength to pay its
commitments in a period of poor profitability?
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Answers to these and other questions about company prospects and risks require
analysis of both qualitative information about a company’s business plans and
quantitative information about its financial position and performance. Proper
analysis and interpretation of information is crucial to good business analysis.
This is the role of financial statement analysis. Through it, an analyst will better
understand and interpret both qualitative and quantitative financial information so
that reliable inferences are drawn about company prospects and risks.
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ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS
Accounting analysis is a process of evaluating the extent to which a company’s
accounting reflects economic reality. This is done by studying a company’s
transactions and events, assessing the effects of its accounting policies on
financial statements, and adjusting the statements to both better reflect the
underlying economics and make them more amenable to analysis. Financial
statements are the primary source of information for financial analysis. This
means the quality of financial analysis depends on the reliability of financial
statements that in turn depends on the quality of accounting analysis. Accounting
analysis is especially important for comparative analysis.
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ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS
These accounting limitations affect the usefulness of financial statements and can
yield at least two problems in analysis.
First, lack of uniformity in accounting leads to comparability problems.
Comparability problems arise when different companies adopt different
accounting for similar transactions or events. Comparability problems also arise
when a company changes its accounting across time, leading to difficulties with
temporal comparability.
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ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS
Second, discretion and imprecision in accounting can distort financial statement
information. Accounting distortions are deviations of accounting information from the
underlying economics. These distortions occur in at least three forms.
(1) Managerial estimates can be subject to honest errors or omissions. This estimation
error is a major cause of accounting distortions.
(2) Managers might use their discretion in accounting to manipulate or window-dress
financial statements. This earnings management can cause accounting distortions.
(3) Accounting standards can give rise to accounting distortions from a failure to
capture economic reality.
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Financial analysis is the use of financial statements to analyze a company’s
financial position and performance, and to assess future financial performance.
Several questions can help focus financial analysis. One set of questions is future
oriented. For example,
Does a company have the resources to succeed and grow?
Does it have resources to in-vest in new projects?
What are its sources of profitability?
What is the company’s future earning power?
OVERVIEW OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
A second set involves questions that assess a company’s track record and its
ability to deliver on expected financial performance. For example,
How strong is the company’s financial position?
How profitable is the company?
Did earnings meet analyst forecasts? This includes an analysis of why a
company might have fallen short of (or exceeded) expectations.
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Financial analysis consists of three broad areas—
Profitability analysis,
Risk analysis, and
Analysis of sources and uses of funds.
Profitability analysis is the evaluation of a company’s return on investment. It focuses on a
company’s sources and levels of profits and involves identifying and measuring the impact of
various profitability drivers. It also includes evaluation of the two major sources of profitability
—margins (the portion of sales not offset by costs) and turnover (capital utilization).
it focuses on reasons for changes in profitability and the sustainability of earnings.
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Risk analysis is the evaluation of a company’s ability to meet its commitments.
involves assessing the solvency and liquidity of a company along with its earnings variability.
Because risk is of foremost concern to creditors in the context of credit analysis.
is important to equity analysis, both to evaluate the reliability and sustainability of company
performance and to estimate a company’s cost of capital.
Analysis of cash flows is the evaluation of how a company is obtaining and deploying its funds.
This analysis provides insights into a company’s future financing implications. For example, a
company that funds new projects from internally generated cash (profits) is likely to achieve
better future performance than a company that either borrows heavily to finance its projects or,
worse, borrows to meet current losses.
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PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS
Prospective analysis is the forecasting of future payoffs—typically earnings, cash flows, or both. This
analysis draws on accounting analysis, financial analysis, and business environment and strategy
analysis.
The output of prospective analysis is a set of expected future payoffs used to estimate company value.
Quantitative tools help improve forecast accuracy, prospective analysis remains a relatively subjective
process. This is why prospective analysis is sometimes referred to as an art, not a science.
Valuation is a main objective of many types of business analysis. Valuation refers to the process of
converting forecasts of future payoffs into an estimate of company value. To determine company value,
an analyst must select a valuation model and must also estimate the company’s cost of capital. While
most valuation models require forecasts of future payoffs, there are certain ad hoc approaches that use
current financial information.
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Planning Activities
A company exists to implement specific goals and objectives. For example, Colgate aspires to remain a
powerful force in oral, personal, and home care products. A company’s goals and objectives are captured
in a business plan that describes the company’s purpose, strategy, and tactics for its activities.
A business plan assists managers in focusing their efforts and identifying expected opportunities and
obstacles. Insight into the business plan considerably aids our analysis of a company’s current and future
prospects and is part of the analysis of business environment and strategy. We look for information on
company objectives and tactics, market demands, competitive analysis, sales strategies (pricing,
promotion, distribution), management performance, and financial projections. Information of this type, in
varying forms, is often revealed in financial statements. It is also available through less formal means
such as press releases, industry publications, analysts’ newsletters, and the financial press.
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Financing Activities
A company requires financing to carry out its business plan. Colgate needs
financing for purchasing raw materials for production, paying its employees,
implementing marketing campaigns, and research and development.
Financing activities refer to methods that companies use to raise the money to
pay for these needs. Because of their magnitude and their potential for
determining the success or failure of a venture, companies take care in acquiring
and managing financial resources.
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Financing Activities
There are two main sources of external financing—
equity investors (also called owners or shareholders) and
creditors (lenders).
Decisions concerning the composition of financing activities depend on
conditions existing in financial markets. Financial markets are potential sources
of financing. In looking to financial markets, a company considers several issues,
including the amount of financing necessary, sources of financing of financing
agreements.
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Investing Activities
Investing activities refer to a company’s acquisition and maintenance of
investments for purposes of selling products and providing services, and for the
purpose of investing excess cash. Investments in land, buildings, equipment, legal
rights (patents, licenses, copyrights), inventories, human capital (managers and
employees), information systems, and similar assets are for the purpose of
conducting the company’s business operations. Such assets are called operating
assets.
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Investing Activities
Also, companies often temporarily or permanently invest excess cash in securities such as other
companies’ equity stock, corporate and government bonds, and money market funds. Such
assets are called financial assets.
Operating Activities
Operating activities represent the “carrying out” of the business plan given its financing and
investing activities. Operating activities involve at least five possible components: research and
development, procurement, production, marketing, and administration. Operating activities are
a company’s primary source of earnings. Earnings reflect a company’s success in buying from
input markets and selling in output markets.
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Balance Sheet
The accounting equation (also called the balance sheet identity) is the basis of the accounting system:
Assets, Liabilities, and Equity. The left-hand side of this equation relates to the resources controlled by
a company, or assets. While the right-hand side of the equation relates to the sources of resources
controlled by a company (assets).
Assets are resources invested that are expected to generate future earnings through operating activities.
Liabilities are funding from creditors and represent obligations of a company or, alternatively, claims
of creditors on assets.
Equity (or shareholders’ equity) is the total of (1) funding invested or contributed by owners
(contributed capital) and (2) accumulated earnings in excess of distributions to owners (retained
earnings) since inception of the company.
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Balance Sheet
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Income Statement
An income statement measures a company’s financial performance over a period of time,
typically a year or a quarter. It is a financial representation of the operating activities of a
company during the period. Typically, the bottom line is net income, which purports to
measure the amount that the company earned during the period. The line items of the income
statement provide details of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses in a bid to explain how a
company earned its net income.
In addition to signaling earning power, income is also supposed to measure the net change in
shareholder’s equity during a period from nonowner sources—that is, before considering
distributions to and contributions from equity holders.
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Income Statement
The measure of income that serves this role is called comprehensive income and is reported by
most companies in its statement of shareholders’ equity. Income statements often include
several other interim measures of income.
Income from continuing operations represents earnings from continuing operations before the
provision for income tax.
Operating earnings does not have a fixed definition, but refers to the difference between sales
revenues and all operating expenses.
Gross profit (or gross margin) is the difference between sales and cost of goods sold, and
measures the ability of a company to cover its product costs.
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Income Statement
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Ratio Analysis
Ratio analysis is among the most popular and widely used tools of financial analysis. Yet its
role is often misunderstood and, consequently, its importance often overrated. A ratio expresses
a mathematical relation between two quantities. A ratio of 200 to 100 is expressed as 2:1, or
simply 2.
While computation of a ratio is a simple arithmetic operation, its interpretation is more
complex. To be meaningful, a ratio must refer to an economically important relation. For
example, there is a direct and crucial relation between an item’s sales price and its cost.
Accordingly, the ratio of cost of goods sold to sales is important. In contrast, there is no
obvious relation between freight costs and the balance of marketable securities. The example
in Illustration 1.14 highlights this point.
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Ratio Analysis
Illustration of Ratio Analysis. We can compute numerous ratios using a company’s financial statements. Some
ratios have general application in financial analysis, while others are unique to specific circumstances or
industries. This section presents ratio analysis as applied to three important areas of financial statement
analysis:
1. Credit (Risk) Analysis
a. Liquidity. To evaluate the ability to meet short-term obligations.
b. Capital structure and solvency. To assess the ability to meet long-term obligations.
2. Profitability Analysis
a . Return on investment. To assess financial rewards to the suppliers of equity and debt financing.
b. Operating performance. To evaluate profit margins from operating activities.
c. Asset utilization. To assess effectiveness and intensity of assets in generating sales, also called turnover.
3. Valuation
a. To estimate the intrinsic value of a company (stock).
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Credit Analysis. First, we focus on liquidity. Liquidity refers to the ability of an enterprise to meet its short-
term financial obligations. An important liquidity ratio is the current ratio, which measures current assets available
to satisfy current liabilities. Colgate’s current ratio of 1.18 implies that there are 118 cents of current assets
available to meet each $1 of currently maturing obligations. A more stringent test of short-term liquidity, based on
the acid-test ratio, uses only the most liquid current assets: cash, short-term investments, and accounts receivable.
Colgate has 69 cents of such liquid assets to cover each $1 of current liabilities. The acid-test ratio suggests that
Colgate’s liquidity situation is cause for concern. Still, we need more information to draw definite conclusions
about liquidity. The length of time needed for conversion of receivables and inventories to cash also provides
useful information regarding liquidity. Colgate’s collection period for receivables is approximately 35 days, and its
days to sell inventory is 64. Neither of these indicates any liquidity problems. However, these measures are more
useful when compared over time (i.e., changes in these measures are more informative about liquidity problems
than levels). Overall, our brief analysis of liquidity suggests that while Colgate’s composition of current assets and
current liabilities indicate only moderate liquidity, its receivables and inventory peri-ods coupled with its excellent
cash flow from operations (see later discussion) indicate that there is not much cause for concern.
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Analysis of Solvency. Solvency refers to the ability of an enterprise to meet its long-term financial
obligations. To assess Colgate’s long-term financing structure and credit risk, we examine its capital
structure and solvency. Its total debt-to-equity ratio of 4.01 indicates that for each $1 of equity
financing, $4.01 of financing is provided by creditors. Its long-term debt-to-equity ratio is 2.55,
revealing $2.55 of long-term debt financing to each $1 of equity. Both these ratios are extremely high
for a manufacturing company; such high ratios are more typical for a financial institution! On their
own, they do raise concerns about Colgate’s ability to service its debt and remain solvent in the long
run. However, these ratios do not consider Colgate’s excellent profitability. Another ratio that also
considers profitability in addition to capital structure is the times interest earned ratio (or interest
coverage ratio), which is the ratio of a company’s earnings before interest to its interest payment.
Colgate’s 2011 earnings are 73.87 times its fixed (interest) commitments. This ratio indicates that
Colgate will have no problem meeting its fixed-charge commitments. In sum, given Colgate’s high
(and stable) profitability, its solvency risk is low.
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Profitability Analysis. We begin by assessing different aspects of return on investment.
Colgate’s return on assets of 20.63% implies that a $1 asset investment generates 20.63 cents
of annual earnings prior to subtracting after-tax interest. Equity holders are especially
interested in management’s performance based on equity financing, so we also look at the
return on equity. Colgate’s return on common equity (or more commonly termed as return on
equity) of 45.37% suggests it earns 45.73 cents annually for each $1 of equity investment.
Both of these ratios are significantly higher than the average for publicly traded companies of
approximately 7% and 12%, respectively. Colgate’s return on equity, in particular, is probably
one of the highest among U.S. companies.
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Another part of profitability analysis is evaluation of operating performance. This is done by
examining ratios that typically link income statement line items to sales. These ratios are often
referred to as profit margins, for example, gross profit margin (or more concisely gross
margin). These ratios are comparable to results from common-size income statement analysis.
The operating performance ratios for Colgate in Exhibit 1.14 reflect a remarkable operating
performance in the face of a highly competitive environ-ment and recent economic downturn.
Colgate’s gross profit margin of 57.31% reflects its inherent ability to sell well above its cost
of production, despite the intensely competitive consumer products’ markets. Its pre-tax
operating profit margin of 22.95% and net profit margin of 14.53% are well above average for
U.S. companies. In sum, Colgate’s pricing power and superior control of production costs
make it a very profitable company.
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Asset utilization analysis is closely linked with profitability analysis. Asset utilization ratios,
which relate sales to different asset categories, are important determinants of return on
investment. These ratios for Colgate indicate above average performance. For example,
Colgate’s total asset turnover of 1.40 is higher than the average for all publicly traded
companies in the United States. Also Colgate’s working capital turnover is very large at 48.65,
because Colgate maintains a small investment in working capital relative to its sales. This
indicates that Colgate has not invested substantial amounts in working capital.
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Cash Flow Analysis
Cash flow analysis is primarily used as a tool to evaluate the sources and uses of funds. Cash flow
analysis provides insights into how a company is obtaining its financing and deploying its resources. It
also is used in cash flow forecasting and as part of liquidity analysis.
Colgate’s statement of cash flows reproduced in Exhibit 1.8 is a useful starting point for cash flow
analysis. Colgate generated $2.896 billion from operating activities. It then used $1.213 billion for
investing activities, primarily for capital expenditure and payment for acquisitions. Colgate also paid
$4.429 billion for debt retirement, which it financed by issuing fresh debt to the tune of $5.843 billion.
The remaining cash flow was primarily re-turned to its shareholders, in the form of common dividends
($1.203 billion) and repurchase of common stock ($1.806 billion). Overall, Colgate’s financing
activities resulted in a net cash outflow to the tune of $1.242 billion. After accounting for foreign
currency ex-change rate fluctuations, Colgate’s cash position increased by $388 million during 2011.
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Valuation Models
Valuation is an important outcome of many types of business and financial statement analysis. Valuation normally
refers to estimating the intrinsic value of a company or its stock. The basis of valuation is present value theory.
This theory states the value of a debt or equity security (or for that matter, any asset) is equal to the sum of all
expected future payoffs from the security that are discounted to the present at an appropriate discount rate.
Present value theory uses the concept of time value of money—it simply states an entity prefers present
consumption more than future consumption. Accordingly, to value a security an investor needs two pieces of
information: (1) expected future payoffs over the life of the security and (2) a discount rate.
For example, future payoffs from bonds are principal and interest payments. Future payoffs from stocks are
dividends and capital appreciation. The discount rate in the case of a bond is the prevailing interest rate (or more
precisely, the yield to maturity), while in the case of a stock it is the risk-adjusted cost of capital (also called the
expected rate of return).
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Debt Valuation
The value of a security is equal to the present value of its future payoffs discounted at an
appropriate rate. The future payoffs from a debt security are its interest and principal
payments. A bond contract precisely specifies its future payoffs along with the investment
horizon. The value of a bond at time t, or Bt , is computed using the following formula:
where It n is the interest payment in period t n, F is the principal payment (usually the debt’s
face value), and r is the investor’s required interest rate, or yield to maturity. When valuing
bonds, we determine the expected (or desired) yield based on factors such as current interest
rates, expected inflation, and risk of default.
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Equity Valuation
Basis of Equity Valuation. The basis of equity valuation, like debt valuation, is the present
value of future payoffs discounted at an appropriate rate. Equity valuation, however, is more
complex than debt valuation. This is because, with a bond, the future payoffs are specified.
With equity, the investor has no claim on predetermined payoffs. Instead, the equity investor
looks for two main (uncertain) payoffs—dividend payments and capital appreciation. Capital
appreciation denotes change in equity value, which in turn is determined by future dividends,
so we can simplify this task to state that the value of an equity security at time t, or Vt , equals
the sum of the present values of all future expected dividends:
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where Dt n is the dividend in period t n, and k is the cost of capital. This model is
called the dividend discount model. This equity valuation formula is in terms of
expected dividends rather than actual dividends. We use expectations instead of
actual dividends because, unlike interest and principal repayments in the case of a
bond, future dividends are neither specified nor determinable with certainty. This
means our analysis must use forecasts of future dividends to get an estimate of
value.
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STATEMENT ANALYSIS