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BS Lect 11

The chapter introduces random variables and their probability distributions. It covers discrete and continuous random variables, and defines expected value and variance. It provides examples of calculating probabilities, expected values, and variances for discrete random variables.

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19 views16 pages

BS Lect 11

The chapter introduces random variables and their probability distributions. It covers discrete and continuous random variables, and defines expected value and variance. It provides examples of calculating probabilities, expected values, and variances for discrete random variables.

Uploaded by

jasonnumahnalkel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 5

Random Variables and their


Probability Distributions

Topics to Cover:
Random Variables
Probability Distributions
Expected Value of a Random Variable
Variance and standard deviation of a
Random Variable
Learning Objectives
At the completion of this chapter, you should be
able to:
 Identify random variables as either Discrete or
Continuous
 Calculate probabilities of a random variable from a
probability distribution/density function
 Calculate the expected value and variance of a
random variable
 Calculate the expected value and variance from a
function of a random variable
Random Variables
 A random variable is a variable that assumes numerical
values associated with the random outcomes of an
experiment, where one (and only one) numerical value is
assigned to each sample point.

Random
Variables

Discrete Continuous
Random Variable Random Variable
Examples of a Discrete Random
Variable
 The number of sales made by a salesperson in a given
week: x = 0, 1, 2,. ..
 The number of consumers in a sample of 500 who favour
a particular product over all competitors: x = 0, 1,
2,. . . , 500
 The number of bids received in a bond offering: x=
0, 1, 2,. . .
 The number of errors on a page of an accountant's
ledger: x = 0, 1, 2,. . .
 The number of customers waiting to be served in a
restaurant at a particular time: x = 0, 1, 2,. . .
Other Examples
 Can only assume a countable number of values

Examples:

 Roll a die twice


Let X be the number of times 4 comes up
(then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)

 Toss a fair coin 5 times.


Let X be the number of heads
(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)
Discrete Probability Distribution
Example

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads.


4 possible outcomes
Probability Distribution
T T X Value Probability
0 1/4 = 0.25
T H 1 2/4 = 0.50
2 1/4 = 0.25
H T
Probability

0.50

H H 0.25

0 1 2 X
Example 5.1

Three balls are drawn in succession without replacement


from a box containing 6 red balls and 4 black balls. Show all
the possible sample point in sample space. Define a random
variable X which denotes the number of black balls and
determine the probability distribution of X.
Example 5.1 cont…
All possible sample points in the sample space,
S={RRR, RRB, RBR, RBB, BRR, BRB, BBR, BBB}.
Since X is the number of black balls, the X values for
each outcome in the sample space are:X= {0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3}.
The corresponding probabilities are:
P(X = 0) = P(R1R2R3) = P(R1)P(R2/R1)P[R3/(R1R2)]
= (6/10)(5/9)(4/8) = 1/6
P(X = 1) = P[(B1R2R3) or (R1B2R3) or (R1R2B3)]
= P(B1)P(R2/B1)P[R3/(B1R2)] + P(R1)P(B2/R1)P[R3/(R1B2)]
+ P(R1)P(R2/R1)P[B3/(R1R2)] = (4/10)(6/9)(5/8)
+(6/10)(4/9)(5/8) +(6/10)(5/9)(4/8) = 1/6+1/6+1/6 = 0.5
P(X = 2) = P[(B1B2R3) or (B1R2B3) or (R1B2B3)] = 1/10 + 1/10 +1/10
= 3/10
Probability Distribution of X

X 0 1 2 3 Total

P(X) 0.17 0.50 0.30 0.03 1.00

Quick Exercise
1.What is the probability of getting less that 3 heads?
2.What is the probability of getting more than 1 head?
Expected Value of X
Example
 Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete
distribution (Weighted Average)
N
  E(X)   Xi P( Xi )
i1

X P(X)
 Example: Toss 2 coins, 0 0.25

X = # of heads, 1 0.50

compute expected value of X: 2 0.25

E(X) = (0 x 0.25) + (1 x 0.50) + (2 x 0.25)


= 1.0
Variance and standard deviation of X
 Variance of a discrete random variable
n
σ 2   [X i  E(X)]2 P(X i )
i 1

 E ( X 2 )  [ E ( X )]2
n n
 [ X i2 P( X i )]  [ X i P( X i )]2
i 1 i 1

Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable is σ σ 2

where:
E(X) = Expected value of the discrete random variable X
Xi = the ith outcome of X
P(Xi) = Probability of the ith occurrence of X
Example

 Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads,


compute standard deviation (recall E(X) = 1)

σ  [X  E(X)] P(X )
i
2
i

σ  (0  1)2 (0.25)  (1 1)2 (0.50)  (2  1)2 (0.25)  0.50  0.707

Possible number of heads


= 0, 1, or 2
Probability Distribution of X
Probability Distribution of X

E(X) = 1.19

V(X) = 1.97 – (1.19)^2 = 0.285


Quick Exercise

The following table contains the probability distribution for


the number of traffic accidents daily in a small city:
Number of Accidents (X) Probability of X
0 0.25
1 0.34
2 0.18
3 0.14
4 0.05
5 0.04

1. What is the probability of less than equal to 3 accidents?


2. What is the expected number of daily accidents?
3. What is the standard deviation of daily accidents?

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