Bs Lect 07
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jasonnumahnalkelBs Lect 07
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jasonnumahnalkelChapter 4
Probability
Topics to be covered
Definition of Probability
Events
Counting problems
Venn Diagram
Laws of probability
Multiplicative rules of probability
Bayes Theorem
Learning Objectives
By the end of this chapter, you should be able to:
define probability.
use the terms such as experiments, sample space,
events, Venn diagrams, in calculating probability.
use the counting rules to calculate probability.
use the additive laws of probability.
Multiplicative rules of probability.
use Bayes’ Theorem to calculate probability.
What is Probability?
Probability – the chance that an uncertain event will occur
(always between 0 and 1)
There are three approaches to assessing the probability
of an uncertain event:
1. a priori classical probability
X number of ways the event can occur
probabilit y of occurrence
T total number of elementary outcomes
2. empirical classical probability
number of favorable outcomes observed
probability of occurrence
total number of outcomes observed
3. subjective probability
an individual judgment or opinion about the probability of occurrence
Important Terms
An experiment is a process that results in one of two or
more distinct outcomes.
An elementary outcome is a distinct outcome of an
experiment
A Trial is an experiment, which leads to several results or
cases. Tossing of a coin is a trial and the turning up of a
head or tail is known as event or case.
Event – Each possible outcome of a variable
Simple Event – an event that can be described by a single
characteristic. e.g., A red card from a deck of cards.
Sample Space – the collection of all possible events
Important terms cont…
A null event is an event that contains no
elementary outcomes of the experiment and it is
denoted by “”. The probability of a null event
is zero.
An exhaustive event is an event that includes
all the possibilities or all the possible outcomes
of an experiment.
Two events are said to be equally likely events
if none of them is expected to occur more
frequently than other.
Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:
e.g. All 52 from a deck of playing cards:
Events
Simple event
An outcome from a sample space with one
characteristic
e.g., A red card from a deck of cards
Complement of an event A (denoted A’)
All outcomes that are not part of event A
e.g., All cards that are not diamonds
Joint event
Involves two or more characteristics simultaneously
e.g., An ace that is also red from a deck of cards
Visualizing Events
Contingency Tables
Ace Not Ace Total
Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26
Total 4 48 52
Tree Diagrams Sample
A ce 2 Space
Sample
Car d
Space
Bla c k 24
Full Deck N o t a n A ce
of 52 Cards Ace
R ed C 2
ar d
N o t an
Ace 24
Visualizing Events in a Venn
diagram
Let A = aces
Let B = red cards A ∩ B = ace and red
B
A
A U B = ace or red
Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually exclusive events
Events that cannot occur together
example:
A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs
Events A and B are mutually exclusive
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Collectively exhaustive events
One of the events must occur
The set of events covers the entire sample space
example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
C = diamonds; D = hearts
Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive
(but not mutually exclusive – an ace may also be
a heart)
Events B, C and D are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive
Probability
Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain
occur
The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1
P(A) P(B) P(C) 1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
Computing Joint and
Marginal Probabilities
The probability of a joint event, A and B:
number of outcomes satisfying A and B
P( A and B)
total number of elementary outcomes
Computing a marginal (or simple) probability:
P(A) P(A and B1 ) P(A and B 2 ) P(A and Bk )
Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
Joint Probability Example
P(Red and Ace)
number of cards that are red and ace 2
total number of cards 52
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Marginal Probability Example
P(Ace)
2 2 4
P( Ace and Re d) P( Ace and Black )
52 52 52
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Joint Probabilities Using
Contingency Table
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)
Total P(B1) P(B2) 1
Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities
Quick Exercises
1. An experiment has four equally likely outcomes: E1, E2, E3, and E4.
a. What is the probability that E2 occurs?
b. What is the probability that any two of the outcomes
occur (e.g., E1 or E3)?
c. What is the probability that any three of the outcomes
occur (e.g., E1 or E2 or E4)?
2. Consider the experiment of selecting a playing card from a deck of
52 playing cards. Each card corresponds to a sample point with a
1/52 probability.
a. List the sample points in the event a 10 is selected.
b. List the sample points in the event a club is selected.
c. List the sample points in the event a face card ( jack, queen,
or king) is selected.
d. Find the probabilities associated with each of the events in
Quick Exercises cont…
3.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a female and a bicycle rider?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected person is someone who exercise with
equipment?
c. For a randomly selected person, what is the probability the person
participates in exercise walking or swimming?
