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Lecture15 - Joint Proabability and Probability Rules

The document discusses probability rules including joint probability, conditional probability, negation, inclusion-exclusion, marginalization, and conditioning. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to apply these rules including calculating P(C|rain) and P(C=cloud) from a table of probability values.

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mahnoorsadiq193
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13 views11 pages

Lecture15 - Joint Proabability and Probability Rules

The document discusses probability rules including joint probability, conditional probability, negation, inclusion-exclusion, marginalization, and conditioning. Examples are provided to demonstrate how to apply these rules including calculating P(C|rain) and P(C=cloud) from a table of probability values.

Uploaded by

mahnoorsadiq193
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecture 15

Joint Probability and


Probability Rules
PM
AM

C = cloud C = ¬cloud R = rain R = ¬rain


0.4 0.6 0.1 0.9

PM
AM

R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58
P(C | rain)
P(C, rain)
P(C | rain) = = αP(C, rain)
P(rain)

= α⟨0.08, 0.02⟩ = ⟨0.8,


0.2⟩
R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58
Probability
Rules
Negation

P( ¬ a) = 1 −
P(a)
Inclusion-Exclusion

P(a ∨ b) = P(a) + P(b) − P(a ∧


b)
Marginalization

P(a) = P(a, b) + P(a,


¬b)
Marginalization

P(X = xi) = ∑ P(X = xi, Y =


yj )
j
Marginalization
R = rain R = ¬rain
C = cloud 0.08 0.32
C = ¬cloud 0.02 0.58

P(C = cloud)
= P(C = cloud, R = rain) + P(C = cloud, R =
¬rain)
= 0.08 + 0.32
= 0.40
Conditioning

P(a) = P(a | b)P(b) + P(a |


¬ b)P( ¬ b)
Conditioning

P(X = xi) = ∑ P(X = xi | Y = yj)P(Y =


yj)
j

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