Introduction to Probability

Dr. Mahmoud Abd El-

Raouf
 Basic Definitions
Random Experiment:
All possible outcomes can be defined in advance. And there is uncertainty about which
outcome will occur when the experiment is performed, such as tossing a coin.
Sample Space (S): It is the set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment.
Example 1:
1) Tossing one fair coins :
S = {H, T}
2) Tossing two fair coins together:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
3) Tossing fair coin three times:
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
4) Tossing fair coin n times or tossing n fair coins one time. sample space is
 Basic Definitions
Example 2:
1) Tossing one fair die : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2) Tossing two fair dice together:

 (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6) 

 (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
 
 (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6) 
S 
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6) 
 (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6) 
 
 (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) 
 Basic Definitions
Examples of random Experiment:

Drawing a card from a well-shuffled standard

deck of 52 cards. Denoting by C,D,H,
and S clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades,
respectively, by J,Q,K Jack, Queen, and King,
and using 1 for aces

Recording the gender of children of three children families.

With b and g standing for boy and girl .

S = {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}

 Basic Definitions
C. Event: An event A and B is a sub set of the sample space.
Event B is sub set of event A.

Example 3: If we toss a die one time: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Find the following events:
1) Score is even : 𝑨={𝟐, 𝟒,𝟔}
2) Score is less than 5 : 𝑩={𝟏, 𝟐,𝟑, 𝟒}
3) Score is odd : 𝑪={𝟏 , 𝟑 , 𝟓 }
4)Score is even and less than 5 𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩={𝟐, 𝟒}
5)Score is even or less than 5 𝑨𝒐𝒓 𝑩={𝟏,𝟐,𝟑 ,𝟒 ,𝟔}
6) Score is not less than 5: 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝑩={𝟓 , 𝟔 }
 Basic Definitions
Example 4: If we rolls two fair dice :

•Let D1 be the value rolled on die 1.

•Let D2 be the value rolled on die 2.

1) the face-up value of the first one is 2

,,,,}
2) sum of two values is no greater than 5 :

{ }
( 1 ,1 ) , ( 1 ,2 ) , ( 1 , 3 ) , (1 , 4 ) ,
𝐵=
( 2 ,1 ) , ( 2 , 2 ) , ( 2, 3 ) ,
( 3 ,1 ) , ( 3 , 2 ) ,
( 4 , 1)
Basic Rules of Probability:

Probability of event A:

𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑺
 As then


Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: For throwing coin three times,
S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} N=8
1) Event A is two or more heads:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟒 𝟏
𝑨= { 𝑯𝑯𝑻 , 𝑯𝑻𝑯 ,𝑻𝑯𝑯 ,𝑯𝑯𝑯 𝑷
} ( 𝑨 )= 𝑵 ¿ 𝟖 = 𝟐
2) Event B is all tosses are the same:
𝒏(𝑩) 𝟐 𝟏
𝑩= { 𝑻𝑻𝑻 , 𝑯𝑯𝑯 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩)=
𝑵
¿ =
𝟖 𝟒
Example 4: If balls are numbered from 1 to 15 and a ball is selected, what is the probability of:
 A: prime number greater than 5
𝑨= {𝟕 , 𝟏𝟏 , 𝟏𝟑 } 𝒏( 𝑨) 𝟑 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟓
 B: odd number less than 11.
𝒏( 𝑩 ) 𝟓 𝟏
𝑩= { 𝟏 ,𝟑 , 𝟓 , 𝟕 ,𝟗 } 𝑷 ( 𝑩)= = =
𝑵 𝟏𝟓 𝟑
Basic Rules of Probability:
1) Intersection of Events:
The occurrence of event A and B (Both events occur)

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)
2) Union of Events:
The occurrence of event A or B (At least one event)

𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ) =¿𝑷 ( 𝑨+) 𝑷 ( 𝑩−) 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
3) Complementary of Event:
Complementary of event A is subset of S and does not belong to A.
′
𝑷 (𝑨¿¿𝒄)=𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝑷(𝑨 )=𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨)¿
4) The occurrence of only A and not B:
The occurrence of event A and not occurrence of B

5) The occurrence of only B and not A:

The occurrence of event B and not occurrence of A

Basic Rules of Probability:
𝒏( 𝑨) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑨
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )= =
𝑵 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑓 𝑺
𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 ( 𝑨)≤ 𝟏

𝑷 ( 𝑨∪ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) − 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨)=𝟏− 𝑷( 𝑨)
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 1: A class contains 30 students grouped as follows:
Alex(A) Cairo(C) Giza(G) Total
Find the probability of selecting:
Male(M) 7 5 4 16
Female(F) 6 5 3 14
𝟏𝟔
one male 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ) = Total 13 10 7 30
𝟑𝟎
𝟏𝟑
one student from Alex 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =
𝟑𝟎
13 𝟏𝟕
one student not from Alex𝑃 ( 𝐴 )=1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴)
𝑐
¿1− ¿
30 𝟑𝟎
𝟓
one male from Cairo (
𝑃 𝑀 ∩𝐶 = )
𝟑𝟎
one male or one student from Giza 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∪𝐺 )=𝑃 ( 𝑀 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐺 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∩ 𝐺)
16 +7 4 19
¿ − ¿
30 30 30 30
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
1. what is the probability that the student will pass both courses?
 Let passing math probability is
 Let passing English probability is
 Let passing at least course probability is
 Then the probability of passing both courses is

By using 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∪ 𝑬 )= 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑬 ) − 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∩ 𝑬)
𝟎 . 𝟗= 𝟎 .𝟕𝟓+ 𝟎 .𝟖𝟓 − 𝑷 ( 𝑴 ∩ 𝑬 )
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
, , and
2. The student fails Mathematics,
By using

3. The student pass English but he fails mathematics.,

By using
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 2: In a high school graduation class of 100 students, 75 passes Mathematics exam ,
85 passes English exam and 90 passing at least one course .If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that:
, , and
4. the probability of he passed in only one course.
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 3: A die is loaded in such a way that each odd number is twice as likely to occur as
each even number. Find P (G), where G is the event that a number greater than 3 occurs on a
single roll of the die.
Solution: A die is loaded S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
P(each odd number) = 2 P(each even number)
P(2) = P(4)= P(6)=P P(1) = P(3)= P(5)=2P
P(1) + P(2) +P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) =1
2P + P +2P + P + 2P + P =1
𝟏 𝟐
𝑃 ( 𝑒𝑎𝑐 h 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 )=𝑷 = 𝑃 ( 𝑒𝑎𝑐 h 𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 )=𝟐 𝑷=
𝟗 𝟗
𝑃 (𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡 h𝑎𝑛3)=𝑃 (𝐺)=P ( 4 ) + P (5) + P ( 6)
𝟏 𝟐 𝟏 𝟒
¿ + + ¿
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗
Basic Rules of Probability:
Example 4: Three students A, B and C are in a swimming race, A have twice as likely to win
as B and B is twice as likely to win as C , find the probability of winning of each one?

𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑩) 𝟐 𝒙¿ 𝟒 𝒙
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 ∗
𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) =𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑪 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) =𝟐 𝒙
Let then:
As total probability is equal to one then,
𝟒 𝒙 +𝟐 𝒙 + 𝒙 =𝟏 then
𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑪 )=𝒙 =
𝟕
𝟐
𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) =𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑪 )=𝟐 𝒙=
𝟕
𝟒
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=𝟐 𝑷 ( 𝑩 ) =4 x=
𝟕
 Types of events
 Mutual Exclusive Events:
Both A and B cannot occur in the same time.
A and B are disjoint.

 A is subset of B

 Independent:
Independent events that event not affected by each other, which mean that the probability
of occurring of one event does not depend on the probability of the other event.
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 (𝑩) 𝑷 (𝑪)
Example (5):

Solution:
a. If A and B are Mutual Exclusive Events
By using
1 1 1
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )    p  p
3 4 12
b. If A and B are Independent 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )
1 1 1 3 1 1
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A) P ( B )    p p  p  p
3 4 4 4 12 9
Example (5):

Solution:
c. If A is a subset of B
A  B  P ( A  B )  P ( A)
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A)

P( A  B)  P( B)
1
 p
3
 Example 6:
Alex(A) Cairo(C) Giza(G) Total
Male(M) 7 5 4 16
Find the probability of selecting:
Female(F) 6 5 3 14
three males¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑀 1 ∩ 𝑀 2 ∩ 𝑀 3 ) Total 13 10 7 30
16 15 14 4
¿ × × ¿
30 29 28 29
16 15 14 13 12
two males and three females = 𝑃 ( 𝑀 1 ∩ 𝑀 2 ∩ 𝐹 3 ∩ 𝐹 4 ∩ 𝐹 5 ) 30×
29 28 27 26 ¿ 0 .03
¿ × × ×

two students of the same gender = 𝑃 (𝑀 1 ∩ 𝑀+𝑃

2 ) (𝐹 1 ∩ 𝐹 2 )
¿ ( 16 15
×
30 29
+ )(
14 13
30 29 )
× ¿ 0 . 48

two students from the same city = 𝑃 ( 𝐴 1 ∩ 𝐴 2+) 𝑃 ( 𝐶 1 ∩𝐶+

2 ) 𝑃 ( 𝐺1 ∩ 𝐺2 )

¿ ( × +)(
13 12 10 9
× +
7
×
30 29 30 29 30 29
6
)(
¿ 0 .33 )
 Example 7 :
Three men, and fire at a target. Suppose, , denote their probabilities of hitting the target.

A. Find the probability that they all hit the target

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪¿) ⅙ × ⅓¿ 𝟏 /𝟕𝟐
×¼
B. Find the probability that they all miss the target

𝑷 ( 𝑨𝒄 ∩ 𝑩 𝒄 ∩ 𝑪 𝒄¿) ⅚× ¾× ⅔¿ 𝟑𝟎/𝟕𝟐=𝟓/𝟏𝟐
C. Find the probability that only one of them hits the target.

𝑷 𝑨∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 + 𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 +) 𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪 )
( ) (
𝒄 𝒄 𝒄 𝒄 𝒄 𝒄

¿ ( ⅙ ×¾ ×⅔+)( ⅚ × ¼× ⅔+) ( ⅚ × ¾× ⅓¿) 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟒

D. Find the probability that at least one of them hits the target

𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ∪𝐶¿) 1 − 𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ¿) 𝟎 . 𝟓𝟖
 Good luck
Dr. Mahmoud Abd El-
Raouf