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Chapter Two Probabilities Distribution

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Chapter Two Probabilities Distribution

Uploaded by

Badsha Hossen
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Probability Distributions

Chapter 2

McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 2008


GOALS

 Define the terms probability distribution and random


variable.
 Distinguish between discrete and continuous probability
distributions.
 Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a
discrete probability distribution.
 Describe the characteristics of and compute probabilities
using the binomial probability distribution.
 Describe the characteristics of and compute probabilities
using the hypergeometric probability distribution.
 Describe the characteristics of and compute probabilities
using the Poisson

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What is a Probability Distribution?

Experiment: Toss a
coin three times.
Observe the number of
heads. The possible
results are: zero heads,
one head, two heads,
and three heads.
What is the probability
distribution for the
number of heads?

3
Probability Distribution of Number of Heads Observed
in 3 Tosses of a Coin

4
Characteristics of a Probability Distribution

5
Random Variables

Random variable - a quantity resulting from an


experiment that, by chance, can assume different
values.

6
Types of Random Variables

 Discrete Random Variable can assume only


certain clearly separated values. It is usually
the result of counting something

 Continuous Random Variable can assume an


infinite number of values within a given range.
It is usually the result of some type of
measurement

7
Discrete Random Variables - Examples

 The number of students in a class.


 The number of children in a family.
 The number of cars entering a carwash in a
hour.
 Number of home mortgages approved by
Coastal Federal Bank last week.

8
Continuous Random Variables - Examples

 The distance students travel to class.


 The time it takes an executive to drive to work.
 The length of an afternoon nap.
 The length of time of a particular phone call.

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Features of a Discrete Distribution

The main features of a discrete probability


distribution are:
 The sum of the probabilities of the various
outcomes is 1.00.
 The probability of a particular outcome is
between 0 and 1.00.
 The outcomes are mutually exclusive.

10
The Mean of a Probability Distribution

MEAN
•The mean is a typical value used to represent the
central location of a probability distribution.
•The mean of a probability distribution is also
referred to as its expected value.

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The Variance, and Standard
Deviation of a Probability Distribution

Variance and Standard Deviation

• Measures the amount of spread in a distribution


• The computational steps are:
1. Subtract the mean from each value, and square this difference.
2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability.
3. Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance.
The standard deviation is found by taking the positive square root
of the variance.

12
Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation of a Probability Distribution - Example

John Ragsdale sells new cars for Pelican Ford.


John usually sells the largest number of cars
on Saturday. He has developed the following
probability distribution for the number of cars
he expects to sell on a particular Saturday.

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Mean of a Probability Distribution - Example

14
Variance and Standard
Deviation of a Probability Distribution - Example

15
Binomial Probability Distribution

Characteristics of a Binomial Probability


Distribution
 There are only two possible outcomes on a
particular trial of an experiment.
 The outcomes are mutually exclusive,
 The random variable is the result of counts.
 Each trial is independent of any other trial

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Binomial Probability Formula

 Binomial distribution is a discrete probability


distribution and is defined by the p.m.f

Where p = the probability of a success in a single trial


q = the probability of a failure in a single trial = 1- p
n = number of trial
x = number of success

17
Binomial Probability - Distribution

In a series of n independent trials, if the probability of success in


each trial is a constant p, and the probability of failure is q, then
the probability of X success (and obviously n-x failures) is given
by the Binomial distribution.

The distribution is known as binomial because the probabilities are


given by the binomial series

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Binomial Probability - Example

The probability of getting exactly 2 heads in 6 tosses of a


fair coin is

The probability of getting at least 4 heads in 6 tosses of a


fair coin is

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Problem

 Problem.
Three coins are tossed. Find the probabilities of
i) 0 Head
ii) 2 Head
iii) more than one head
iv) at least one head.

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Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance

The binomial distribution contains two constant n and p, which


distinguish one distribution from another. These constants are
called parameters and empirical estimates of parameters are
called statistics.

The mean of binomial random variable X. designated µ or E(X)

µ = E(X) = np
Variance = 2 = npq
St. Deviation =  =
Note: If p = q and number of trial n < 30 the binomial distribution
should be followed.

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Problem

Suppose that items coming off a production line are classified as


defective or non defective. The probability of a defective piece is .04.
10 items are drawn at random during a short period and classified
according to the above scheme. What is the probability of (a) no
defective (b) at least two defective or (c) one or two defectives?

In this example, n=10, p= .04


Hence, q = 1- p =0.96
P( X= 0) = = 1* .040 *0.96 10 = 0.96 10 = .6648
p( X ≥ 2) = 1 – { p(X= 0) + P(X=1)} = 1{0.6648 + 10(0.04) (0.96)9
= 1 – 0.0418 = 0.0582
P(X=1) + p(X=2) =

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Home Works: Problems to be solved

1. Find the probability that in a family of 4 children


there will be (a) at least 1 boy and (b) at least 1 boy
and 1 girl.
2. Out of 2000 families with 4 children each, how many
would you expect to have (a) at least 1 boy, (b) 2 boys,
(c) 1 or 2 girls, and (d) no girls? Refer to the above
problem.
3. If 20% of the bolt produced by a machine are
defective, determine the probability that, out of 4
bolts chosen at random, (a) 1, (b) 0, and (c) at most 2
bolts will be defective.

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Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance: Example

For the example


regarding the number
of late flights, recall
that  =.20 and n = 5.
What is the average
number of late flights?
What is the variance of
the number of late
flights?

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Poisson Probability Distribution

The Poisson probability distribution describes


the number of times some event occurs
during a specified interval. The interval may
be time, distance, area, or volume.
 Assumptions of the Poisson Distribution
(1) The probability is proportional to the length of the
interval.
(2) The intervals are independent.

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Poisson Probability Distribution

A random variable x is said to have a Poisson distribution if it follows the probability law

Where:
m = the mean number of occurrences (successes) in a particular interval
e = the constant 2.71828
x = the number of occurrences (successes).
P(x) = the probability for a specified value of x.

26
Poisson Probability Distribution

Binomial distribution can be approximated by Poisson


probabilities
When n →∝ and p → 0 such that np = m, a constant i.,e.
parameter of poisson distribution
Some typical examples of Poisson variable are

1.The number of misprints per page in a large volume of comparable


printed material.
2.The number of airlines arriving at a busy airport during an hour.
3.The number of blind children in a city

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Poisson Probability Distribution

The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution is the


same
i,e Mean = Variance = np = m
Standard deviation = √ m
The Poisson distribution can frequently be used to
approximate the binomial when n is large and p is very
small. In general, the approximation is good if p ≤ .01 and
np ≤ 5

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Poisson Probability Distribution - Example

On the average, one in 400 items is defective. If the items are packed
in Boxes of 100, what is the probability that any given box of items
will contain
i) No defective ii)less than two defective iii) one or more defectives
iv) more than three defectives

Here
p = 1/400 = 0.0025 = probability of defective item which is very low
n = 100 = number of items packed in the box which is quite large
m = np = 100/400 or 0.0025* 100 = 0.25 average number of
defective items in a box of 100 items.

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Example

i) Probability of non defective

ii) Probability of less than two defectives


p(X≤ 1) = p(X=0) + p(X=1)

iii) p( X ≥ 1) = 1 – p(X= 0) = 1 – 0.7788 =0.2212


iv) p (x >3) = 1 – [ p (x = 0) + p (x = 1) +p (x =2 ) + p (x =3)]

30
Poisson Probability Distribution - Example

Assume baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines.


Suppose a random sample of 1,000 flights shows a
total of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic mean
number of lost bags per flight is 0.3 (300/1,000). If the
number of lost bags per flight follows a Poisson
distribution with m = 0.3, find the probability of not
losing any bags.

31

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