Decision Making
Decision Making
DECISION MAKING
100,000 100,000 100,000
Opening Prayer
Nuggets of
Wisdom
4
ACTIVITY: LOST IN THE SEA (Who will survive?)
Situation: Pretend you are in a shipwrecked and
stranded in a lifeboat. DECIDE five things out of the
Given are the things you can carry if you will be list which you are going to take
landing in an island with you . Make a list in the
1. Mosquito net order of your preference. Write
2. Fishing rod your answer on a coupon bond
3. Shaving mirror or show me board.
4.Rope After all had decided the
5.Chocolate bars choices… I will show you the
6. Water container weight of each things. Write
7. Can of petrol the weight of your selected
8. Bottle of rum things opposite them then sum
9. Radio
it up. It will be your score
10. Sea chart
5
Your score:
1 Shaving mirror. (One of your most powerful tools, because you can use it to 10
signal your location by reflecting the sun.
2 Can of petrol. (Again, potentially vital for signalling as petrol floats on water and 9
can be lit by your matches.)
3 Water container. (Essential for collecting water to restore your lost fluids.) 8
4 Chocolate bars. (A handy food supply.) 7
5 Fishing rod. (Potentially useful, but there is no guarantee that you're able to 6
catch fish. Could also feasibly double as a tent pole.)
6 Rope. (Handy for tying equipment together, but not necessarily vital for 5
survival.)
7 Bottle of rum. (Could be useful as an antiseptic for treating injuries, 4
8 Radio. (Chances are that you're out of range of any signal, anyway.) 3
9 Sea chart. (Worthless without navigational equipment.) 2
10 Mosquito net. 1
MODULE OBJECTIVES 6
YOUR SUBTITLE HERE
Point out the importance Describe the different Solve existing school
of decision making to decision-making problems by making
school administrators for models that can be decisions using
used in making appropriate
an effective educational
optimum decisions in techniques
administration the workplace
What decision making is all about? 7
DATA
“asymmetries ”
of
INFORMATION
TYPES OF DECISIONS
PROGRAMMED DECISIONS
Trigger solutions that have already been determined by past
experiences as appropriate for the problem in question
Example: maintaining a necessary grade point average for
academic standing
4
FOUR STEPS IN PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION:
1 1. Measure results
2.
3.
Bland alternative
Mixed alternative
2. Compare results to objectives
4. Poor alternative
3. Determine the significance of the difference
5. Uncertain alternative
4. Communicate threshold differences to
administration.
IMPLEMENTING DECISION
2 GENERATING ALTERNATIVES 5 Decision maker already considered
All possible alternatives should be included no all conceivable problems that may be
matter how ridiculous they may first appear associated with the implementation
and choice may be made later The of the decision
administrator should seek information
regarding each alternative and its various
consequences
EVALUATING DECISION
EVALUATING ALTERNATIVES • Determine extent to which the
3 A. Evaluate the value of each 6 solution achieved the objectives.
• Measuring actual performance
alternative, positive or negative against target objectives
B. Certainty exists
C. Risks exists
13
They
.
are limited by TIME HERBERT SIMON coined the
CONSTRAINTS, COST, and term BOUNDED
RATIONALITY MODEL also
the ABILITY TO PROCESS
referred to as
INFORMATION
ADMINISTRATIVE MODEL
BOUNDED RATIONALITY MODEL 14
4
criterion other than
maximization or optimization
because it is impossible to
determine which alternative is
optimal
Decision makers will never
succeed in generating all
2 positive alternative solutions for
consideration
Conflicting goals of
different stakeholders
GROUP
Share the problem with your subordinates.as a group.
Together you generate and evaluate alternatives and
attempt to reach agreement o a solution
16
GROUP DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUE
BRAINSTORMING
Generating ideas and alternative solutions but does
not evaluate..
NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
Concerned with generation of ideas and evaluation
done in a structured manner
DELPHI TECHNIQUE
Relies completely on a nominal group who does not engage face-to
face discussions. Inputs are solicited by mails allowing a poll of large
numbers of experts
DEVIL’S ADVOCACY
Antidote for groupthink, used as critiquing technique after an alternative
solutions to a problem have been developed
17
Based on the situation, as the school administrator, what will you decide?
1. What type of decision making will you use?
2. Illustrate/explain the steps that you will undertake.
3. Conclude on the effectiveness of your decision