Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 7 views

    Lect 7

    Uploaded by

    siranjivikumar.m1
    The document discusses activity-on-arrow networks and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method. It provides information on building activity-on-arrow networks, forward and backward passes, and slack. It also explains how to calculate activity times, variances, critical path duration and probability of completing a project using a hypothetical PERT example.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Lect 7

    Uploaded by

    siranjivikumar.m1
    7 views26 pages
    The document discusses activity-on-arrow networks and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method. It provides information on building activity-on-arrow networks, forward and backward passes, and slack. It also explains how to calculate activity times, variances, critical path duration and probability of completing a project using a hypothetical PERT example.

    Original Title

    Lect-7

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    The document discusses activity-on-arrow networks and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method. It provides information on building activity-on-arrow networks, forward and backward passes, and slack. It also explains how to calculate activity times, variances, critical path duration and probability of completing a project using a hypothetical PERT example.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    7 views26 pages

    Lect 7

    Uploaded by

    siranjivikumar.m1
    The document discusses activity-on-arrow networks and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method. It provides information on building activity-on-arrow networks, forward and backward passes, and slack. It also explains how to calculate activity times, variances, critical path duration and probability of completing a project using a hypothetical PERT example.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 26

    MBA ZG523/ PGDBA ZG523/

    QM ZG523
    PROJECT MANAGEMENT
    BITS Pilani Dr. Rajesh Matai, Department of Management, BITS Pilani.
    Pilani|Dubai|Goa|Hyderabad
    BITS Pilani
    Pilani|Dubai|Goa|Hyderabad

    Project Plan-II and PERT


    Lecture-7
    Activity-on-Arrow Network Building Blocks

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 3


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Activity-on-Arrow Network Fundamentals

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 4


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Activity-on-Arrow Network Fundamentals

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 5


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Koll Center Project: Network Information

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 6


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Partial Koll Business Center AOA Network

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 7


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Partial AOA Koll Network

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 8


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Partial AOA Koll Network (cont’d)

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 9


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Activity-on-Arrow Network

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 10


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Activity-on-Arrow Network Forward Pass

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 11


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Activity-on-Arrow Network Backward Pass

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 12


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Activity-on-Arrow Network Backward Pass,
    Forward Pass, and Slack

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 13


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    Comparison of AON and AOA
    Methods

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 14


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
    PERT
    (PROGRAM EVALUATION & REVIEW
    TECHNIQUE)
    • In 1958 the Special Office of the US Navy and the
    Booze, Allen, and Hamilton consulting firm developed
    PERT to schedule the more than 3,300 contracts of the
    Polaris submarine project and to cover uncertainty of
    activity time estimates.

    • PERT is almost identical to the critical path method


    (CPM) except it assumes each activity duration has a
    range that follows a statistical distribution.

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    Activity and Project Frequency
    Distributions

    Activity
    Project

    a m b TE

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    Weighted Average Activity
    Time (te)
    a + 4m + b
    te = -------------
    6
    te = weighted average activity time
    a = optimistic activity time
    b = pessimistic activity time
    m = most likely activity time

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    Standard Deviation

    σt =e ( b – a)
    6

    σTE = √ ∑ (σ )² te

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    Probability of Completing the
    Project in Time
    Ts – TE
    Z = --------------

    √ ∑ ( σt ) ²
    e

    TE = Critical path duration


    TS = Scheduled project duration
    Z = probability (of meeting scheduled duration)
    found in statistical Table A7.2

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    Z Values and Probabilities

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
    USING THE PERT TECHNIQUE

    The activity times and variances are given in Table A7.1.


    The project network is presented in Figure A7.2. This
    figure shows the project network as AOA and AON. The
    AON network is presented as a reminder that PERT can
    use AON networks as well as AOA.
    1. Compute the expected time for each activity.
    2. Compute the variance for each activity.
    3. Compute the expected project duration.
    4. What is the probability of completing the project by day
    67? Within 60 days?

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    PERT Example

    Activity a m b te ((b-a)/6))^2
    1-2 17 29 47 30 25
    2-3 6 12 24 13 9
    2-4 16 19 28 20 4
    3-5 13 16 19 16 1
    4-5 2 5 14 6 4
    5-6 2 5 8 5 1

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    PERT Example

    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus


    Probability of completing the
    project in 67 days
    Ts – TE
    Z = --------------

    √ ∑ (σ te )²

    67 – 64 +3
    Z = ----------------- = -------- = + 0.50

    √ 25 + 9 + 1 + 1 √ 36

    P = 0.69 (69 percent chance of


    completing the project on or before 67 time units)
    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
    Probability of completing the
    project in 60 days
    Ts – TE
    Z = --------------

    √ ∑ (σ te )²

    60 – 64 -4
    Z = ----------------- = -------- = - 0.67

    √ 25 + 9 + 1 + 1 √ 36

    P = 0.26 (26 percent chance of


    completing the project on or before 60 time units)
    BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
    Thank you!..

    05/01/2024 Project Plan-II 26


    BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956

    You might also like