Hypothese Testing

Hypothesis Testing
Definitions
In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim or
statement about a population.
A hypothesis test (or test of significance) is a
standard procedure for testing a claim.
A hypothesis test is a statistical method that

uses sample data to evaluate a hypothesis
about a population
Examples of Hypotheses that can be Tested
• A newspaper headline makes the claim that most

workers get their jobs through networking.
• Medical researchers claim that when people with

colds are treated with echinacea, the treatment
has no effect.
Steps of Hypothesis Testing
1. Identify the null hypothesis and alternative
hypothesis from a given claim, express both in
symbolic form
2. Calculate the value of the test statistic, given a
claim and sample data
3. Identify the critical value(s), given a significance
level
4. Identify the P-value, given a value of the test
statistic
5. State the conclusion about a claim in simple and
nontechnical terms
The Basics of Hypothesis Testing
Null Hypothesis: H0
• The null hypothesis (denoted by H0) is a
statement that the value of a population
parameter (such as proportion, mean, or
standard deviation) is equal to some
claimed value.
• We test the null hypothesis directly.
• Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

Alternative Hypothesis: H1
• The alternative hypothesis (denoted by H1

or Ha or HA) is the statement that the
parameter has a value that somehow
differs from the null hypothesis.
• The symbolic form of the alternative
hypothesis must use one of these
symbols: , <, >.
Forming Your
Own Claims (Hypotheses)
If you are conducting a study and want

to use a hypothesis test to support
your claim, the claim must be worded
so that it becomes the alternative
hypothesis.
Example:
Consider the claim that the mean weight of

airline passengers (including carry-on
baggage) is at most 195 lb.
Follow the three-step procedure outlined the
null hypothesis and the alternative
hypothesis.
Example:
Step 1: Express the given claim in symbolic

form. The claim that the mean is at
most 195 lb is expressed in symbolic
form as
H0  ≤ 195 lb.
Step 2: If  ≤ 195 lb is false, then
Ha  > 195 lb must be true.

Example:
Step 3: Of the two symbolic expressions
 ≤ 195 lb and  > 195 lb, we see that
 > 195 lb does not contain equality,
so we let the alternative hypothesis
H1 be  > 195 lb. Also, the null
hypothesis must be a statement that
the mean equals 195 lb, so we let H0
be  = 195 lb.
Note that the original claim that the mean is at
most 195 lb is neither the alternative hypothesis
nor the null hypothesis.
Hypothesis Testing
We always test the null hypothesis.

The initial conclusion will always be
one of the following:
1. Reject the null hypothesis.
2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Wording of Final Conclusion
Caution
• Never conclude a hypothesis test with a

statement of “reject the null hypothesis”
or “fail to reject the null hypothesis.”
• Always make sense of the conclusion
with a statement that uses simple
nontechnical wording that addresses the
original claim.
Accept Versus Fail to Reject
• Some texts use “accept the null

hypothesis.”
• We are not proving the null hypothesis.
Fail to reject is more accurate
• The available evidence is not strong
enough to warrant rejection of the null
hypothesis (such as not enough
evidence to convict a suspect).
Reject or Fail To Reject?
There are various decision criteria

we will use to decide to reject or fail
to reject the null hypothesis:
Traditional method
P-value method
Confidence intervals
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a value used in making

a decision about the null hypothesis, and is
found by converting the sample statistic to
a score with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true.
Test Statistic - Formulas
p̂  p
Test statistic for z
proportion pq
n
x x
Test statistic z or t 
for mean  s
n n
P-Value
The P-value (or p-value or probability value)
is the probability of getting a value of the test
statistic that is at least as extreme as the one
representing the sample data, assuming that
the null hypothesis is true.
Critical region P-value = area to the left of
in the left tail: the test statistic
Critical region P-value = area to the right of
in the right tail: the test statistic
Critical region P-value = twice the area in the
in two tails: tail beyond the test statistic
Procedure for Finding P-Values
Type of Test and P-Value
(Left-tailed) H1: < P-value = P( z  test statistic)
(Right-tailed) H1: > P-value = P( z  test statistic)
(Two-tailed) H1: 
test statistic negative test statistic positive
P-value = 2  P( z  test statistic) P-value = 2  P( z  test statistic)
Critical Region
The critical region (or rejection region) is the

set of all values of the test statistic that
cause us to reject the null hypothesis
Significance Level
The significance level (denoted by ) is the
probability that the test statistic will fall in the
critical region when the null hypothesis is
actually true.
Common choices for  are 0.05, 0.01, and
0.10.
Decision Criterion Comparing P-
Value and Significance Level
If P-value   , reject H0.
If P-value >  , fail to reject H0.

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Hypothesis Testing

A hypothesis test is a statistical method that

• A newspaper headline makes the claim that most

• Medical researchers claim that when people with

• Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

• The alternative hypothesis (denoted by H1

If you are conducting a study and want

Consider the claim that the mean weight of

Step 1: Express the given claim in symbolic

Step 2: If  ≤ 195 lb is false, then

Ha  > 195 lb must be true.

We always test the null hypothesis.

1. Reject the null hypothesis.

2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

• Never conclude a hypothesis test with a

• Some texts use “accept the null

There are various decision criteria

The test statistic is a value used in making

(Left-tailed) H1: < P-value = P( z  test statistic)

(Right-tailed) H1: > P-value = P( z  test statistic)

The critical region (or rejection region) is the

If P-value   , reject H0.

If P-value >  , fail to reject H0.

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