Lecture Slides

Elementary Statistics
Eleventh Edition

and the Triola Statistics Series

by Mario F. Triola

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 1

 8-1 Review and Preview
8-2 Basics of Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 8
Hypothesis Testing

8-3 Testing a Claim about a Proportion

8-4 Testing a Claim About a Mean:
8-5 Testing a Claim About a Mean:
8-6 Testing a Claim About a Standard Deviation or
Variance

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.


Known
Not Known

8.1 - 2
 Section 8-3
Testing a Claim About a
Proportion

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 3

 Key Concept

This section presents complete procedures

for testing a hypothesis (or claim) made about
a population proportion. This section uses
the components introduced in the previous
section for the P-value method, the traditional
method or the use of confidence intervals.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 4

 Key Concept

Two common methods for testing a claim

about a population proportion are (1) to use a
normal distribution as an approximation to the
binomial distribution, and (2) to use an exact
method based on the binomial probability
distribution. Part 1 of this section uses the
approximate method with the normal
distribution, and Part 2 of this section briefly
describes the exact method.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 5

 Part 1:

Basic Methods of Testing Claims

about a Population Proportion p

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 6

 Notation

n = number of trials
x
pˆ  (sample proportion)
n
p = population proportion (used in the
null hypothesis)

q  1 p

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 7

 Requirements for Testing Claims
About a Population Proportion p
1) The sample observations are a simple
random sample.
2) The conditions for a binomial distribution
are satisfied.
3) The conditions np  5 and nq  5 are both
satisfied, so the binomial distribution of
sample proportions can be approximated
by a normal distribution with   np and
  npq . Note: p is the assumed
proportion not the sample proportion.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 8
 Test Statistic for Testing
a Claim About a Proportion
p̂  p
z
pq
n
P-values: Use the standard normal
distribution (Table A-2) and refer to
Figure 8-5

Critical Values: Use the standard normal

distribution (Table A-2).
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 9
 Caution

Don’t confuse a P-value with a proportion p.

P-value = probability of getting a test

statistic at least as extreme as
the one representing sample
data

p = population proportion

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 10

 P-Value Method:

Use the same method as described

in Section 8-2 and in Figure 8-8.
Use the standard normal
distribution (Table A-2).

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 11

 Traditional Method

Use the same method as described

in Section 8-2 and in Figure 8-9.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 12

 Confidence Interval Method

Use the same method as described

in Section 8-2 and in Table 8-2.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 13

 CAUTION
When testing claims about a population proportion,
the traditional method and the P-value method are
equivalent and will yield the same result since they
use the same standard deviation based on the claimed
proportion p. However, the confidence interval uses
an estimated standard deviation based upon the sample
proportion p̂ . Consequently, it is possible that the
traditional and P-value methods may yield a different
conclusion than the confidence interval method.

A good strategy is to use a confidence interval to

estimate a population proportion, but use the P-value
or traditional method for testing a claim about the
proportion.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 14
 Example:
The text refers to a study in which 57 out of
104 pregnant women correctly guessed the
sex of their babies. Use these sample data to
test the claim that the success rate of such
guesses is no different from the 50% success
rate expected with random chance guesses.
Use a 0.05 significance level.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 15

 Example:
Requirements are satisfied: simple random
sample; fixed number of trials (104) with two
categories (guess correctly or do not);
np  (104)(0.5)  52  5 nq  (104)(0.5)  52  5
and
Step 1: original claim is that the success rate
is no different from 50%: p  0.50
Step 2: opposite of original claim is p  0.50

Step 3: p  0.50 does not contain equality so it

is H1 .
H 0 : p  0.50 null hypothesis and original claim
H1 : p  0.50 alternative hypothesis
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 16
 Example:
Step 4: significance level is   0.50
Step 5: sample involves proportion so the
relevant statistic is the sample
proportion, p̂
Step 6: calculate z:
57
 0.50
pˆ  p 104
z   0.98
pq 0.50 0.50 
n 104
two-tailed test, P-value is twice the
area to the right of test statistic
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 17
 Example:
Table A-2: z = 0.98 has an area of 0.8365 to its
left, so area to the right is 1 – 0.8365 = 0.1635,
doubles yields 0.3270 (technology provides a
more accurate P-value of 0.3268
Step 7: the P-value of 0.3270 is greater than
the significance level of 0.05, so fail to
reject the null hypothesis
Here is the correct conclusion: There is not
sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the
claim that women who guess the sex of their
babies have a success rate equal to 50%.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 18

 Obtaining p̂
p̂ sometimes is given directly
“10% of the observed sports cars are red”

is expressed as
pˆ  0.10
p̂ sometimes must be calculated
“96 surveyed households have cable TV
and 54 do not” is calculated using
x 96
pˆ    0.64
n (96  54)
(determining the sample proportion of households with cable TV)

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 19

 Part 2:

Exact Method for Testing Claims

about a Proportion p̂

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 20

 Testing Claims
We can get exact results by using the binomial
probability distribution. Binomial probabilities
are a nuisance to calculate manually, but
technology makes this approach quite simple.
Also, this exact approach does not require that
np  5 5
and
nq so we have a method
that applies when that requirement is not
satisfied. To test hypotheses using the exact
binomial distribution, use the binomial
probability distribution with the P-value
method, use the value of p assumed in the null
hypothesis, and find P-values as follows:

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 21

 Testing Claims
Left-tailed test:

The P-value is the probability of getting x

or fewer successes among n trials.

Right-tailed test:

The P-value is the probability of getting x

or more successes among n trials.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 22

 Testing Claims
Two-tailed test:

If pˆ  p , the P-value is twice the

probability of getting x or more
successes

If pˆ  p , the P-value is twice the

probability of getting x or fewer
successes

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 23

 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

 Test statistics for claims about a proportion.
 P-value method.
 Confidence interval method.
 Obtaining p̂ .

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. 8.1 - 24