Chapter 4 (4.1 – 4.

3)

Basic Probability

Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel®7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-1
 Learning Objectives

In this chapter, you learn:

 Basic probability concepts

 Calculating probabilities of events
 Joint events
 Conditional probability
 Decision trees

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-2
 Basic Probability Concepts

 Probability – the chance that an uncertain event

will occur (always between 0 and 1)

 Impossible Event – an event that has no

chance of occurring (probability = 0)

 Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur

(probability = 1)

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-3
 Example

Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics

from the population described in the following table:

Taking Stats Not Taking Total

Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

number of males taking stats 84

Probability of male taking stats    0.191
total number of people 439

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-4
 Events

Each possible outcome of a variable is an event.

 Simple event
 An event described by a single characteristic
 e.g., A day in January from all days in 2019
 Joint event
 An event described by two or more characteristics
 e.g. A day in January that is also a Wednesday from all days in 2019
 Complement of an event A (denoted A’)
 All events that are not part of event A
 e.g., All days from 2019 that are not in January

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-5
 Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck:

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-6
 Organizing & Visualizing Events
 Contingency Tables -- For All Days in 2019
Jan. Not Jan. Total

Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 32 333 365

 Decision Trees Total

Sample
W e d. 5 Number
Of
J a n.
Space Sample
All Days Not Wed. 27
Space
In 2019 Wed. 47
Outcomes
N o t Ja
n.
Not W
ed . 286
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
® Chap 4-7
 Definition: Simple Probability
 Simple Probability refers to the probability of a
simple event.
 ex. P(Jan.)
 ex. P(Wed.)
Jan. Not Jan. Total
P(Wed.) = 52 / 365
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 32 333 365

P(Jan.) = 32 / 365
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-8
 Definition: Joint Probability
 Joint Probability refers to the probability of an
occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
 ex. P(Jan. and Wed.)
 ex. P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)

Jan. Not Jan. Total

P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Wed. 5 47 52
= 286 / 365
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 32 333 365

P(Jan. and Wed.) = 5 / 365

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-9
 Mutually Exclusive Events
 Mutually exclusive events
 Events that cannot occur simultaneously

Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2019

A = day in January; B = day in February

 Events A and B are mutually exclusive

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-10
 Collectively Exhaustive Events
 Collectively exhaustive events
 One of the events must occur
 The set of events covers the entire sample space
Example: Randomly choose a day from 2019

A = Weekday; B = Weekend;
C = January; D = Spring;
 Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive
(but not mutually exclusive – a weekday can be in
January or in Spring)
 Events A and B are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-11
 Computing Joint and
Marginal Probabilities

 The probability of a joint event, A and B:

number of outcomes satisfying A and B
P( A and B) 
total number of elementary outcomes

 Computing a marginal (or simple) probability:

P(A)  P(A and B1 )  P(A and B 2 )    P(A and Bk )


Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-12
 Joint Probability Example

P(Jan. and Wed.)

number of days that are in Jan. and are Wed. 5
 
total number of days in 2013 365

Jan. Not Jan. Total

Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 32 333 365

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-13
 Marginal Probability Example

P(Wed.)
4 48 52
 P (Jan. and Wed.)  P(Not Jan. and Wed.)   
365 365 365

Jan. Not Jan. Total

Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 31 334 365

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-14
 Marginal & Joint Probabilities In A
Contingency Table

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-15
 Examples

 Page 163, # 4.38

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Probability Summary So Far
 Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain

occur
 The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
 The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1
P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-17
 General Addition Rule

General Addition Rule:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For mutually exclusive events A and B

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-18
 General Addition Rule Example

P(Jan. or Wed.) = P(Jan.) + P(Wed.) - P(Jan. and Wed.)

= 32/365 + 52/365 - 5/365 = 79/365
Don’t count
the five
Wednesdays
in January
Jan. Not Jan. Total twice!
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313

Total 32 333 365

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-19
 Computing Conditional
Probabilities
 A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
P(A and B) The conditional
P(A | B)  probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred

P(A and B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-20
 Conditional Probability Example

 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

conditioning (AC) and 40% have a GPS. 20%
of the cars have both.

 What is the probability that a car has a GPS,

given that it has AC ?

i.e., we want to find P(GPS | AC)

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-21
 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a GPS and
20% of the cars have both.
GPS No GPS Total
AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

P(GPS and AC) 0.2

P(GPS | AC)    0.2857
P(AC) 0.7
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-22
 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of these,
20% have a GPS. 20% of 70% is about 28.57%.

GPS No GPS Total

AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

P(GPS and AC) 0.2

P(GPS | AC)    0.2857
P(AC) 0.7

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-23
 Examples

 Page 163, # 4.38e

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Using Decision Trees
.2
Given AC or G PS .7 P(AC and GPS) = 0.2
H a s
no AC: 0 .7
C )= D oe
P( A s
have not P(AC and GPS’) = 0.5
G PS .5
s AC
H a .7
All Conditional
Probabilities
Cars
Do .2
es
hav not .3
eA P(A G P S P(AC’ and GPS) = 0.2
C
C ’) Has
=0
.3
D oe
s
have not
G PS .1 P(AC’ and GPS’) = 0.1
.3 Chap 4-25
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Using Decision Trees
(continued)
.2
C
.4 P(GPS and AC) = 0.2
Given GPS H as A
or no GPS: = 0 .4
S )
( G P D oe
P s
have not .2 P(GPS and AC’) = 0.2
P S AC
sG
Ha .4
All Conditional
Probabilities
Cars
Do .5
e
hav s not
eG
PS P(G C
.6 P(GPS’ and AC) = 0.5
A
PS
’) = Has
0.6
D oe
s
have not .1 P(GPS’ and AC’) = 0.1
AC
.6 Chap 4-26
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Independence
 Two events are independent if and only
if:

P(A | B)  P(A)
 Events A and B are independent when the probability
of one event is not affected by the fact that the other
event has occurred

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-27
 Multiplication Rules

 Multiplication rule for two events A and B:

P(A and B)  P(A | B) P(B)

Note: If A and B are independent, then P(A | B)  P(A)

and the multiplication rule simplifies to

P(A and B)  P(A) P(B)

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-28
 Examples

 Page 156-157, ## 4.18 --- 4.21

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Bayes Formula

Section 4.4

Statistics for Managers Using

Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel®7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. ©2014 Pearson Education,
Chap 5-30
Inc.
 Bayes’ Theorem

 Bayes’ Theorem is used to revise previously

calculated probabilities based on new
information.

 Developed by Thomas Bayes in the 18th

Century.

 It is an extension of conditional probability.

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-31
 Example

There exists a test for a certain viral infection. It is

95% reliable for infected patients and 99% reliable for
the healthy ones. That is, if a patient has the virus
(event V), the test shows that (event S) with
probability P{S | V} = 0.95, and if the patient does not
have the virus, the test shows that with probability
P{not S | not V} = 0.99. Suppose that 4% of all the
patients are infected with the virus, P{V} = 0.04. When
the test shows positive result, find the (conditional)
probability that the patient is infected.

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-32
 Bayes’ Theorem

P(A | B)P(B)
P(B | A) 
P(A)

How to find P(A)?

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-33
 Marginal Probability
(The Law of Total Probability)
 Marginal probability for event A:

P(A)  P(A | B1 ) P(B1 )  P(A | B 2 ) P(B 2 )    P(A | Bk ) P(Bk )

 Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive events

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-34
 Bayes’ Theorem

P(A | B i )P(B i )
P(B i | A) 
P(A | B 1 )P(B 1 )  P(A | B 2 )P(B 2 )      P(A | B k )P(B k )

 where:
Bi = ith event of k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
A = new event that might impact P(Bi)

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-35
 Bayes’ Theorem Example

 A drilling company has estimated a 40%

chance of striking oil for their new well.
 A detailed test has been scheduled for more
information. Historically, 60% of successful
wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of
unsuccessful wells have had detailed tests.
 Given that this well has been scheduled for a
detailed test, what is the probability
that the well will be successful?

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-36
 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

 Let S = successful well

U = unsuccessful well
 P(S) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.6 (prior probabilities)
 Define the detailed test event as D
 Conditional probabilities:
P(D|S) = 0.6 P(D|U) = 0.2
 Goal is to find P(S|D)

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-37
 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

Apply Bayes’ Theorem:

P(D | S)P(S)
P(S | D) 
P(D | S)P(S)  P(D | U)P(U)
(0.6)(0.4)

(0.6)(0.4)  (0.2)(0.6)
0.24
  0.667
0.24  0.12

So the revised probability of success, given that this well

has been scheduled for a detailed test, is 0.667
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-38
 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

 Given the detailed test, the revised probability

of a successful well has risen to 0.667 from
the original estimate of 0.4

Prior Conditional Joint Revised

Event Prob.
Prob. Prob. Prob.
S (successful) 0.4 0.6 (0.4)(0.6) = 0.24 0.24/0.36 = 0.667
U (unsuccessful) 0.6 0.2 (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12 0.12/0.36 = 0.333

Sum = 0.36

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-39
 Exercises

 All athletes at the Olympic games are tested for

performance-enhancing steroid drug use. The
imperfect test gives positive results (indicating
drug use) for 90% of all steroid-users but also
(and incorrectly) for 2% of those who do not use
steroids. Suppose that 5% of all registered
athletes use steroids. If an athlete is tested
positive, what is the probability that he/she uses
steroids?

Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-40
 Chapter Summary

In this chapter we discussed:

 Basic probability concepts

 Sample spaces and events, contingency tables, simple
probability, and joint probability
 Basic probability rules
 General addition rule, addition rule for mutually exclusive events,
rule for collectively exhaustive events
 Conditional probability
 Statistical independence, marginal probability, decision trees,
and the multiplication rule
 Bayes Formula and the Law of Total Probability
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-41