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Introducing The Knowledge of Probability

The document introduces elementary probability theory concepts including random vs deterministic phenomena, probability calculations, random experiments, event spaces, basic operations with events, definitions of probability, axioms of probability theory, mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events, independent and dependent events, and conditional probability.

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Cesar Orlando Quiroz Villavicencio
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11 views16 pages

Introducing The Knowledge of Probability

The document introduces elementary probability theory concepts including random vs deterministic phenomena, probability calculations, random experiments, event spaces, basic operations with events, definitions of probability, axioms of probability theory, mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events, independent and dependent events, and conditional probability.

Uploaded by

Cesar Orlando Quiroz Villavicencio
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and Statitics

Personal Presentation: Introducing the knowledge of


probability

Student: 塞萨尔 - LS22308224


Major: Space Project Management
ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY THEORY

• Random and deterministic phenomena


• Definition of probabilities
• Random experiments
• Mutually exclusive events
• Mutually non-exclusive events
• Independent and dependent events
• Conditional probability
Random and deterministic phenomena
Research phenomena are classified into two classes:

a) Deterministic: those that can be predicted accurately

b) Random: they have a greater or lesser degree of uncertainty and


cannot be predicted accurately.

• Uncertainty due to ignorance: lack of knowledge of the phenomenon


being studied
• Uncertainty due to randomness: product of the impossibility of
controlling the multiple causes that the phenomenon presents and
that can be considered random.
Probability calculation
It is a branch of mathematics that aims to study random events or events, the possible results
that can be obtained, and the measurement of the magnitude of their uncertainties.

The calculation of probabilities provides us with the rules for


the study of random experiments, constituting the basis for
inductive or inferential statistics

The intention of probability theory is is to provide a


mathematical model suitable for the description of the
(random) behavior of our phenomenon. Sometimes the
behavior can be very similar to models such as Binomial,
Poisson, Normal, etc.
Random experiment
An experiment is random if the following conditions are true:
1. Can be repeated indefinitely, always under the same conditions.
2. Before doing it, you cannot predict the result that will be obtained.
3. The result obtained belongs to a previously known set of possible results.

The possible cases of an experiment are also called elementary events (S), since they cannot be decomposed in
terms of simpler ones.

EXAMPLE 1: ROLLING A DICE


If we perform the random experiment of throwing a die in the air we
have:
Elemental events or events: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Sample space S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

EXAMPLE 2
Toss of: Possible events:
two coins HH, HT, TT, TH
three coins HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,
TTT, HTT, THT. TTH.
Event space
It is the one that contains all the events of a random experiment; For
example, the event space for rolling two dice will be:

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6


2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6

36 posible events (S)


Basic operations with random events
Union
Intersection

Difference
Definition of probability
Probability is an idealization of the proportion of times that certain outcomes will occur in repeated events of an
experiment.

It is denoted F(A): The probability that an event A occurs and is equal to the proportion of times that the event A is
expected to occur in repeated events of an experiment.
If any experiment can give rise to a finite number of possible results and there is no relationship that privileges
some results over others, the probability of a random event A is calculated.

𝑵 ° 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=
𝑵 ° 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔
FOR EXAMPLE: When playing we are interested in obtaining certain results to win, so, to know what chance I
have of winning, I must see what my events have with respect to the total that can occur in a given game.
This idea is expressed as follows:

P(A): is the probability of obtaining "A" events out of a total of "C"


𝑨 A: player-friendly events
𝑷 ( 𝑨 )=
𝑪 C: total of events that could be presented to the player.
Axioms of probability theory
1. Probability can only take values ​between 0 and 1.

2. The probability of a certain event is 1, that is, 100%

3. the probability of an impossible event must be 0.

4. the probability of the intersection of two events must be less than or equal to the
probability of each of the events separately.

5. The probability of the union of events must be greater than that of each of the events
separately.

6. If the events are disjoint, it must happen that:

7. the probability of the opposite event of A must be:


Mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events
Two events A and B are mutually Two events are non-mutually exclusive if the
exclusive if they cannot occur occurrence of one makes the occurrence of the
simultaneously. other impossible.
𝑨 ∩ 𝑩=𝟎 𝐀 ∩𝐁≠ 𝟎
𝑨∪ 𝑩= 𝑨𝒐𝒓 𝑩= 𝑨+𝑩 𝐀 ∪ 𝐁= 𝐀 + 𝐁 − 𝐀𝐁

EXAMPLE: non-mutually exclusive events:


EXAMPLE: mutually exclusive events:
Toss two dice
Toss two dice
- Event A: the two sides add up to a number greater than
- Event A: sum of the two sides is equal to 6
8
- Event B: sum of the two sides is equal to 9
- Event B: the two faces are identical
Independent events and dependent events
Two events A and B are independent when the Two events are dependent events when the occurrence
absence or presence of A is independent of the or presence of A is a requirement for the presence or
presence or absence of B. occurrence of B.
𝑨 ∩ 𝑩=( 𝑨 ) ( 𝑩 / 𝑨 )
𝑨 ∩ 𝑩=( 𝑨 ) ( 𝑩 )

EXAMPLE: If there are two events, the probability of the intersection event is used for independent and
dependent events will be:

Independent event

Dependent event
To highlight
1. The probability of AUB is interpreted in the sense that at least one of the two events
occurs, if A occurs but not B, or if B occurs but not A; or both occur.

2. Event A and event B are mutually exclusive because they have no events in common,
that is, they have no intersecting events.

3. The union of two or more non-exclusive events is obtained in the following way:
Conditional probability

If the probability of seeking the occurrence of B provided that A occurs, which implies that A has already
occurred or must necessarily occur.

The conditional probability of B in A is expressed:

The probability of B, conditional on A, is equal to the number of events at the intersection of A and B
divided by the number of events in A.
Other concepts
Composite event: is one that is made up of two or more elementary events.

The probability of a composite event is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the
elementary events that compose it (mutually exclusive events)

Example: In the case of toss a dice, an odd or even number falls.

A=(1,3,5) P(A)=1/6+1/6+1/6=1/2
B=(2,4,6) P(B)=1/6+1/6+1/6=1/2
In summary
In reality, composite events occur, which are formed by uniting them, intercepting them
and complementing them.

Given events A and B, we have:

a) : A happens and B happens

b) : A or B happens

c) does not happen A

d) conditional probability
THANKS

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