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Discrete Probability Distributions Y

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34 views11 pages

Discrete Probability Distributions Y

Uploaded by

emmanonsoagaehi4u
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Discrete Probability Distributions

Prof. Paola Di Muro


Brandon University
Recall
• A variable is a characteristic or attribute that can
assume different values;
• Random variable: a function that assigns one (and
only one) numerical value to each single event of
the experiment (generally, the probability of the
event).
• A DISCRETE random variable can only assume a
discrete or finite number of values, that can be
counted (i.e., the number of phone calls received
today, etc.)
Definition and example
• The probability distribution of a discrete
random variable is a graph, table, or formula
that specifies the probability associated with
each value the random variable can assume.
• Example: Let X = the sum of two dice. The
probability distribution of X is
• What are the possible sums of two dice and
their respective probabilities?
Sum of two dice question
Summary of example
• Here is the probability distribution for the sum
of 2 dice and the graph (sum of dice on x axis)
X P(X)
2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
8 5/36
9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
Probability Laws
• The sum of the probabilities in every probability distribution
must be one. Σ P(X) = 1

• The probability of each event must be between zero and one.


0  P( X )  1

• If we observe a discrete RV in the long run (a very large number


of times) and create a frequency distribution table, it would be
not distinguishable from the probability distribution of the
random variable, which represents a theoretical model for the
population.
• Therefore, we can define parameters for the mean, variance
and standard deviation.
Mean or Expected Value
• In order to find the mean μ or expected value E(X) of a discrete random
variable X, we must multiply each outcome X by its corresponding
probability P(X), and add all the products.
• μ = E(X) = Σ [X * P(X)] This parameter will be a measure of
central tendency for our distribution.
• Example: Let X = the number of Heads when tossing 2 coins
• The probability distribution of X is: X P(X)

• How many heads do you expect in the long run?

• µ= ( )+ ( )+ ( )=
Variance and Standard Deviation
• The population variance σ2 represents the average of the squared
deviations (distances of X from the population mean μ, or (X - μ)2. So, the
variance of a random variable X is:
• σ2 = E (X - μ)2 = Σ (X - μ)2 * P(X)
• This formula is not user-friendly, so we can develop a “shortcut” formula
that is easier to use and is algebraically equivalent to it:
• σ2 = Σ X2 * P(X) – μ2 recall: μ = Σ [X * P(X)] so we can also write
σ2 = Σ X2 * P(X) – Σ [X * P(X)]2
• Example: Find the standard deviation for the number of heads

• Recall: µ = 1 so σ =
Example
• A card is selected from an ordinary deck. A casino owner will
pay $10 if you select an ace, $5 if you select a King, a Queen
or a Jack, and $1 if you select a 10. If you select any other
card, you win nothing.
• (a) How much should the gambler expect to win? How much
should the casino charge per game, if they want to “break
even”?
Example continued
• (b) what is the standard deviation of the gambler’s winnings?

• (c) find the probability that the gambler wins at least $10 if he
plays the game twice.
Expected Value problems
• In a lottery, 8000 tickets are sold at $5 each. The prize is a
$18,000 car. If you buy two tickets, what is your expected
gain?
• Solution: Let X = gain ($).
• Build the probability distribution table
X P(X)

• Compute the expected gain:

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