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IB A&I 7.4 Probability

The document discusses probability of compound events and different methods for calculating probabilities of independent and dependent events occurring together. It introduces the multiplication rule for independent events, conditional probabilities for dependent events, and using tree diagrams and the complementary law to calculate compound probabilities.

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56 views19 pages

IB A&I 7.4 Probability

The document discusses probability of compound events and different methods for calculating probabilities of independent and dependent events occurring together. It introduces the multiplication rule for independent events, conditional probabilities for dependent events, and using tree diagrams and the complementary law to calculate compound probabilities.

Uploaded by

thodges
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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IB A&I

Ch. 7: Quantifying Uncertainty


Probability, binomial and normal
distributions
7.4: Complete, Concise, and Consistent
Representations
Continuing with the Multiplication Rule...
Finding Probabilities of Compound
Events
Independent Events
Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of
the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is
folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer and
choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then
choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that you will
choose the red pair of socks both times?
Finding Probabilities of Compound
Events
Independent Events
Experiment 2: A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of
landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.

Experiment 3: A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It is then replaced and a
second card is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a jack and then an eight?

Experiment 4: A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow marbles. A marble is
chosen at random from the jar. After replacing it, a second marble is chosen. What is the
probability of choosing a green and then a yellow marble?
Finding Probabilities of Compound
Events
Independent
All Events
of these examples involved independent events. The events were either
independent organically or we used “replacement”. As long as events are
independent we can find the probability of compound events for three or
more events as well.

Experiment 5: What’s the probability of flipping a fair coin and getting heads
three times in a row? Four in a row? 10 in a row? 25 in a row?
Compound Probability of Independent
Events
Large Populations and Small Samples
When a small sample is taken from a large population without replacement, the
probability of each changes so slightly that the change is negligible.

Experiment 6:

A nationwide survey found that 72% of people in the USA like pizza. If 3 people
are selected at random, what is the probability all 3 like pizza?
BIG IDEA
The probability of two or more independent events occurring in a sequence
can be found by computing the probability of each event separately, and
multiplying them together.
Finding Probabilities of Compound
Events Dependent Events
Experiment 1: A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards.
Without replacing it, a second card is chosen. What is the probability that the first card
chosen is a queen and the second card chosen is a jack?

P(first card is a Q)

P(second card is a jack|first card is a Q)

P(first card is a Q and the second card is a jack)


Finding Probabilities of Compound
Events Dependent Events
Experiment 2: Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for
his class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front
of the room. He then chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the
probability that both students chosen are girls?

Experiment 3: In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are


randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are defective if the first
and second ones are not replaced after being tested?

Experiment 4: Four cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards without
replacement. What is the probability of choosing a ten, a nine, an eight and a seven in
order?
Finding Probabilities of Compound
Events Dependent Events

Do you understand? Try this challenge!

In poker, a royal flush is when you have a ten, jack, queen,


king and ace all of the same suit. What’s the probability
you are dealt five straight cards and end up with a royal
flush?
BIG IDEA
Summary: Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the
outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed. The conditional
probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that event B occurs
given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A).
When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)


The Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is another way to represent all the possible outcomes of an
event (venn diagrams and sample space diagrams being the others we’ve
learned). The end of each branch represents a combined event.
Building Tree Diagrams (Independent)
A CAS project aims to raise funds by organizing a simple lottery. A number of
colored dice are placed in a box: 50 red dice, 30 blue and 20 green. To play the
lottery, a die is chosen at random from the box and its color noted. It is then
replaced in the box and another die is chosen at random. If the two colors are
the same, a small prize is awarded.

What’s the probability of winning the game?


½ * ½ = ¼ or .25
P(winning) = .25 + .09 + .04

P(winning) = .38

3/10 * 3/10 = 9/100 or .09

⅕ * ⅕ = 1/25 = .04
Building Tree Diagrams (Dependent)
The Complementary Law
Complementary Law and the at least one
trick
The complement of at least one is none therefore…

P(of at least 1) = 1 - P(none)

Examples:

1. What’s the probability you roll at least one 6, if you roll a fair 6-sided dice
10 times?
2. What’s the probability Steph Curry misses at least one free throw out of
10 if he’s a career 90.31% free throw shooter and each free throw is
independent of each other?
HW: 7H 1-7 on pg. 336

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