Modul 1 - Trend in Energy Sector

Business Investment
Development and
Communication
Module 1
Trend In Energy Sector
February 2024
⮚Background
⮚Theories
⮚Automative Sector
⮚Energy Transition & Alternative Energies
⮚Beyond the KwH?

Background
Theories
Product Life Cycle & Business Renewal
https://knecnotes.co.ke/2022/03/01/product-life-cycle-positioning/
A Cyclical Model of Technological Change
Philip W. Anderson, M. Tushman

Dominant Design
A dominant design is “a single architecture
that establishes dominance in a product
class” (Anderson & Tushman, 1990, p. 613).
https://www.just-auto.com/features/changing-the-dominant-design/?cf-view
Product Lifecycle and Financial Alternatives
Source: Adolfo José Araujo J.

The Valley of Death & Chasm
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2009.001252.x
Innovation Process & Fundings
The Importance of Public Fundings
Innovation
Ecosystem
Socio-Technical Systems and
The Multi-Level Perspective
The Journeys of Technological Innovations
The Barriers and
Interventions of Technology
Innovations
Part 1
Automotive Sector
Electrification of Vehicles
• Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Plug-in hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)
• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)
• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/best-choice-ice-vehicles-vs-evs-hybrid-how-shaping-up-kulkarni
http://synergyfiles.com/2015/08/types-of-electric-vehicles-in-a-snapshot/
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20190507-1
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20190507-1
Price Mapping and
Unit Sales of Hybrid
Cars in Indonesia
https://www.cnnindonesia.com/otomotif/20230706174334-603-970377/daftar-harga-mobil-hybrid-b
aru-di-indonesia-termurah-rp270-jutaan
https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/penjualan-mobil-hybrid-di-indonesia-meningkat-signifikan-pada-
agustus-2023
https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/penjualan-mobil-hybrid-di-indonesia-meningkat-signifikan-pada-agustus-2023
HEV In Indonesia
• The total number of hybrid cars sold reached 7,139 units. This figure grew 24.6
percent compared to the previous month or July 2023 (5,725 units).
• Hybrid cars are still the main choice of people in making the transition to the
electrification era. In the same period, sales of new battery-based electric cars
made sales of 1,291 units.
• The position of this environmentally friendly vehicle in the national market is still
relatively low at 8.8 percent (market share).

https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/penjualan-mobil-hybrid-di-indonesia-meningkat-signifikan-pada-agustus-2023
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicle (PHEV)
Battery Electric Vehicle
(BEV)
Daftar Harga Mobil Listrik Di Indonesia 2023
https://www.carmudi.co.id/journal/daftar-harga-mobil-listrik-di-indonesia-2023-mulai-rp240-jutaan/
https://www.volvobuses.com/en/news/2023/may/the-largest-electric-bus-order-to-date.html
https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/press-releases/2023/feb/volvo-leads-the-booming-market-for-electric-trucks.html
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Vehicle
• There are only about 15,000 hydrogen-powered
vehicles on U.S. roads right now, and all of them
are in California. Meanwhile, EVs are out there in
the millions.
• While electric cars are getting attention, with
major manufacturers focusing on making them
dominant by 2030, hydrogen vehicles are staying
in the background for now.
• Here's what you need to know about what
hydrogen cars are, how they work, and how likely
it will be that you'll ever drive one.
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-cars-fcev/
The Producers of Electric Battery in Indonesia (2023)
• Origin: South Korea.

• Location: factory in Karawang, West Java. Smelter in
North Maluku, Precursor in Batang.
• Partners: Hyundai Motor, Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM)
• Investment: US$9.8 billion or equivalent to Rp147.2
trillion
• Scope: nickel mining and processing, EV battery
materials, EV battery manufacturing, and battery
recycling.
https://entrepreneur.bisnis.com/read/20230116/52/1618476/daftar-perusahaan-pembuat-baterai-listrik-di-indonesia
• Origin: China
• Location: Batang and Kaltara.
• Tesla and Volkswagen.
• (January to March 2022: 35 percent market share of lithium-ion
batteries.
• Partners PT Antam for mining, IBC (ANTM), MIND ID, Pertamina, and
PLN.) for smelter
• Scope: upstream to downstream (from battery cell cathode precursor
to recycle [in Indonesia]).
• Investment: U$6 billion or equivalent to Rp90.2 trillion.
• From German.
• The BASF Group consists of subsidiaries and joint
ventures in more than 80 countries and operates
six integrated production sites and 390 other
production sites in Europe, Asia, Australia, the
Americas and Africa.
• Scope: will build an ecosystem (from procurement
to production and recycling)
The suppliers of Electric Machines
(generators) in Indonesia?
How about the control system?

Government Policies/Regulations
The Government Regulations
Lembaga Pelaksana Instruksi Presiden
Menteri Koordinator Bidang Kemaritiman dan Investasi Menteri Perhubungan
Menteri Dalam Negeri Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala

Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional
Menteri Pertahanan dan Panglima Tentara Nasional Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara
Indonesia
Menteri Keuangan Menteri Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif/Kepala Badan
Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif
Menteri Pendidikan, Kebudayaan, Riset, dan Teknologi Menteri Investasi lKepala Badan Koordinasi Penanaman
Modal
Kepala Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasiona Menteri Perhubungan, Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya
Minera
Menteri Perindustrian Kepala Staf Kepresidenan

Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Kepala
lembaga Kebijakan Pengadaan Barang/Jasa Pemerintah
Para Gubernur, Bupati, dan Wali Kota
China Extends NEV Tax Reduction
and Exemption Policy to 2027
China has extended its tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) until 2017, showcasing its
commitment to promoting the electric vehicle (EV) industry. This move is expected to boost domestic
sales and maintain China’s position as a global leader in EVs.
The Federal Government has set a goal to make half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2030 zero-
emissions vehicles, and to build a convenient and equitable network of 500,000 chargers to help make
EVs accessible to all Americans for both local and long-distance trips.
Part 2
Energy Transition and
Alternative Energies
Outline
• Technologies (Alternative Energy, Renewable Energy)
• National Industry
• The National Challenges and the Solutions
Alternative Energy =
Renewable Energy + Nuclear Energy
Future Projected Demand
• One of the things that should be considered to achieve the net zero energy emissions in energy sector is the
electrification of all sectors.
• The study showed that deep electrification will improve energy efficiency and reduce both the primary energy
consumption and GHG emissions.
• By 2050, it is necessary for Indonesia to have a high level of direct and indirect electrification of more than 80%
in all sectors.
IESR. Enabling High Share of Renewable Energy in Indonesia’s Power System by 2030. 2022
Solar Energy
Solar PV Still Dominates
Renewable Energy Capacity
Additions
Solar PV's installed power capacity is poised to surpass that of coal by
2027, becoming the largest in the world. Cumulative solar PV capacity
almost triples in our forecast, growing by almost 1 500 GW over the
period, exceeding natural gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. Annual solar
PV capacity additions increase every year for the next five years.
Despite current higher investment costs due to elevated commodity

prices, utility-scale solar PV is the least costly option for new electricity
generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide. Distributed
solar PV, such as rooftop solar on buildings, is also set for faster growth
as a result of higher retail electricity prices and growing policy support
to help consumers save money on their energy bills.
https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables
Technology Manufacturing
Solar PV Manufacturing Capacity According to Announced Projects and in the
The solar PV market is dominated by crystalline Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030
silicon technology, for which the production

process consists of four main steps:
• Production of high purity polysilicon
• Crystallisation into ingots and slicing into

thin wafers
• Production of PV cells
• Assembly of PV modules
Part 2: Energy Transition (Solar)
Technical Potential
• With the mean global horizontal irradiation of
3.45-5.74 kWh/m2, we found that solar power
has the highest potential among other
renewable energy sources.
• The highest potential comes from areas covered

by shrubs in both scenarios because of its total
areas.
• If Indonesia will be able to use this potential

optimally, zero emission in the power sector is
certainly possible to be achieved in 2050
IESR (2021). Beyond 443 GW: Indonesia’s infinite renewable energy potentials. Institute for Essential Services Reform.
Innovation
• Crystalline silicon remains the dominant PV technology, with new, more efficient designs expanding their market
shares
• Crystalline polysilicon remains the dominant technology for PV modules, with a market share of more than 97%.
• Various different types of wafers and cells are used for crystalline polysilicon solar, with some more efficient
than others. The shift to more efficient monocrystalline wafers accelerated in 2022, with the technology
capturing almost all crystalline PV production. In parallel, a more efficient cell design (Passivated Emitter and
Rear Cell [PERC]) is also expanding its dominance with almost 60% market share.
• Other new, even higher-efficiency cell designs (using technologies such as TOPCon, heterojunction and back
contact) also saw expanded commercial production and captured about 35% of the market in 2022.
Investment
• In 2022, solar PV further strengthened its leading position as the power generation
technology with the most investment
• Global solar PV investments in capacity additions increased by over 20% in 2022 and
surpassed USD 320 billion, marking another record year. Solar PV comprised almost 45% of
total global electricity generation investment in 2022, triple the spending on all fossil fuel
technologies collectively.
• Investment in PV is expected to grow further in the coming years thanks to ambitious

government targets, policy support and increasing competitiveness.
Economic Parameters
of Candidate Regional
Power Plants
Private Sector Strategies
• Companies investing in distributed (including rooftop) solar PV installations
on their own buildings and premises – responsible for 26% of total installed
PV capacity as of 2022.
• Companies entering into corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) –
signing direct contracts with solar PV plant operators for the purchase of
generated electricity. Solar PV plants dominate renewables PPAs, with a
share of almost 70% in 2022.
Implementation Challenge
• Highly variable due to their dependence on weather conditions
• High local content requirements (LCRs), particularly for solar PV, that
burden developers since both local manufacturing capacity and quality
are subpar compared to the import one.
Country and Regional Highlights
• China continues to lead in terms of solar PV capacity
additions.
• The European Union is accelerating solar PV
deployment.
• The United States included generous new funding for
solar PV in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced
in 2022.
• India installed 18 GW of solar PV in 2022, almost 40%
more than in 2021.
• Brazil added almost 11 GW of solar PV capacity in 2022,
doubling its 2021 growth.

• By the end 2021, more than 80% of each key manufacturing stages of solar panels are dominated by China.
• The Covid-19 crisis, record commodity prices, and Russiaʼs invasion of Ukraine have all focused attention on the high
reliance of many countries on imports of energy, raw materials, and manufacturing goods that are key to their supply
security.
• Market consolidation occurs especially the higher up the value chain (polysilicon and ingot & wafers). This is due to a
high technical (energy- related) and economic hurdles for plants that make polysilicon, ingot, and wafers.
IESR (2022). Indonesia Solar Energy Outlook 2023. Jakarta: Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR).
• Indonesiaʼs PV manufacturing is so far only limited to module assembly (using imported cells), with
a total annual production capacity of 1,644 MWp from 21 manufacturers.
• Building PV manufacturing industry is difficult, especially the higher the value chain. However,
building a solar cell factory with a competitive production capacity is still feasible.
IESR (2022). Indonesia Solar Energy Outlook 2023. Jakarta: Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR).
Hydroelectricity
Without Major Policy Changes,
Global Hydropower Expansion
is Expected to Slow Down This
Decade
Global hydropower capacity is set to increase by 17%,
or 230 GW, between 2021 and 2030. However, net
capacity additions over this period are forecast to
decrease by 23% compared with the previous decade.
The contraction results from slowdowns in the
development of projects in China, Latin America and
Europe. However, increasing growth in Asia Pacific,
Africa and the Middle East partly offsets these
declines.
Innovation
• Innovation in hydropower is focused on increasing the flexibility of power generation to
answer the changing needs of the power system
• Hydropower is a well-established renewable power technology, with almost 150 years of
history.
• Innovation in this field never stopped, however, and is currently primarily focused on
increasing the flexibility of plants through changes in turbine design and operational
patterns, and through digitalisation.
• The main aim is to enable hydropower plants to better fulfil the needs of modern power
systems with more variable demand and increasing penetration of intermittent renewables.
• Hydropower plants, especially of the reservoir type, are the most suited to providing the
power system with much needed emissions-free flexibility.
Investment
• Investment in hydropower continues its downward trend, highlighting a need for far greater
efforts to get on track with the Net Zero Scenario
• Investment in hydropower capacity continued its downward trend, decreasing by over 10%
in 2022 to less than USD 65 billion.
• Taking into consideration the projects pipeline, further decreases in investment are
expected in the coming years, highlighting a need for much more effort to put hydropower
on track with the NZE Scenario.
Technical Potential
Hydropower can be used to
complement the production of solar
power that has a high hourly
variability due to the cloud coverage,
temperature, and humidity
variability.
• China continues to lead in terms of capacity additions, with 24 GW added in 2022, equal to three-quarters of all
global growth. Hydropower remains an important part of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy released
in 2022, but capacity additions are expected to slow down in the coming years due to a diminishing number of
suitable sites and environmental constraints.
• India is continuing to develop several large hydropower projects, with significant capacity expected to come
online in the coming years. Hydropower is one of the crucial technologies for fulfilling a commitment to reach
500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity in 2030.
• Europe commissioned almost 2 GW of pumped storage hydropower capacity in 2022, the largest amount since at
least 1990. Two projects in Switzerland and Portugal aim to facilitate integration of solar PV and wind.
• In August 2022, the United States passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which increases and extends support in the
form of tax credits for hydropower technologies.
East Asia and Pacific
Ranking by total installed hydropower capacity
Country/ Installed Rank Country/ Installed
Rank Territory Capacity (MW)* Territory Capacity (MW)*
1 China 414,811 11 Philippines 4,520
2 Japan 49,643 12 Thailand 4,515
3 Vietnam 17,366 13 Myanmar 3,331
14 Cambodia 1,332
4 Laos 9,208
15 Papua New Guinea 234
5 Australia 8,576
6 Indonesia 6,602 16 Fiji 125
7 South Korea 6,541 17 New Caledonia 82
8 Malaysia 6,372 18 French Polynesia 48
9 New Zealand 5,342 19 Mongolia 23
10 North Korea 5,010 20 Samoa 12

https://www.hydropower.org/region-profiles/east-asia-and-pacific
Bioenergy
• Bioenergy is a source of energy from the organic material that makes up
plants, known as biomass.
• Modern bioenergy is the largest source of renewable energy globally today,

accounting for 55% of renewable energy and over 6% of global energy supply.
• The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario sees a rapid increase in the use
of bioenergy to displace fossil fuels by 2030.
• Use of modern bioenergy has increased on average by about 3% per year

between 2010 and 2022 and is on an upward trend.
• More efforts are needed to accelerate modern bioenergy deployment to get

on track with the NZE Scenario …while simultaneously ensuring that bioenergy
production does not incur negative social and environmental consequences.
Will Energy Security Concerns Drive
Biofuel Growth in 2023 and 2024?
Nearly two-thirds of biofuel demand growth will occur in emerging
economies, primarily India, Brazil and Indonesia. All these countries
have ample domestic feedstocks, additional production capacity,
relatively low production costs and a package of policies they can
leverage to increase demand. Policies in all three countries are also
rooted in energy security considerations, as greater biofuel use will
offset some oil imports. India imported 87% of its crude oil supply and
Indonesia net imports made up 20% of supply in 2021. Brazil is a net
crude exporter but still imported 19% of its gasoline and diesel in 2021.
Economic Parameters
of Candidate Regional
Power Plants
Part 2: Energy Transition (Bioenergy)
Technical Potential
• Biomass power plants, whose feedstocks do
not depend highly on the weather conditions
unlike solar, wind, and hydropower, or so
called Variable Renewable Energies (VREs),
can be a complement to solve the variability
issues
• Overall, provinces where we can use optimally

their biomass feedstocks are provinces in
Sumatra and Kalimantan since their palm
production is the highest in Indonesia
Clauser, N.M.; González, G.; Mendieta, C.M.; Kruyeniski, J.; Area, M.C.; Vallejos, M.E. Biomass Waste as Sustainable Raw Material for Energy and Fuels. Sustainability 2021, 13, 794. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020794
• In March 2023 the European Union reached a provisional agreement between the Council and Parliament on the
update to the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). The European Union also set a target in 2022 to achieve 35 bcm
annual production of biomethane by 2030 (compared to 3.5 bcm today) and launched the Biomethane Industrial
Partnership in September 2022.
• The United States announced important new funding in 2022 under the Inflation Reduction Act that provides
funding for several steps along the bioenergy value chain, including to scale up the use of sustainable biomass and
waste resources.
• India extended its Biomass Programme in 2022 to support domestic solid and gaseous biogas production and use to
2026.
• Australia decided in 2022 to exclude the burning of native forest wood for electricity generation from its renewable
energy targets, reversing a decision made in 2015, and thus helping to ensure that bioenergy resources are
sustainably sourced.
Wind Energy
Technology Manufacturing
Part 2: Energy Transition (Wind)
Innovation
• Wind power technology development continues to focus on increasing productivity and lowering costs
• Wind technology innovation is focused on increasing the productivity of turbines, especially in areas
with low wind conditions, by developing turbines with longer blades and higher towers. However, the
maximum height of onshore wind turbines is often restricted in certain regions for environmental and
public acceptance reasons, which limits the scope of possible innovation.
• In the offshore wind segment, in contrast, there is no such size restriction; innovation is therefore
focused on designing larger turbines, which allow reductions in the overall cost of power generation. In
parallel, the development of cost-competitive and safe floating offshore wind turbines is accelerating.
Floating wind farms could unblock the vast potential of ocean areas with a water depth too great for
fixed turbines and they could be a vital energy transition tool.
Investment
• Wind power investments increased in 2022 by 20%, rebounding after 2021 slowdown
• Investment in wind generation increased by 20% in 2022, returning to growth after a

slowdown in 2021, and leading to expectations of significant capacity deployment in 2023.
Investment reached a record USD 185 billion, the second largest among all power
generation technologies (behind solar PV), and this is expected to grow further in the
coming years thanks to ambitious government targets, policy support and high
competitiveness.
Economic
Parameters of
Candidate Regional
Power Plants
Private Sector Strategies
• Private-sector activity remains a modest driver of wind power deployment
• The main activity of the private sector in wind power deployment is entering into corporate
power purchase agreements (PPAs) – signing direct contracts with wind power plant
operators for the purchase of generated electricity.
• In 2022 wind farms were responsible for 30% of all renewable capacity contracted in PPAs.
Technical Potential
• Due to the location of Indonesia, which is in the equator having warm
air and low pressure, Indonesia is not as windy as countries in the
northern and southern hemispheres.
• Wind power potential can actually be harnessed in almost all

provinces in Indonesia
• Technical potential of wind power from scenario 1, with the

minimum mean annual wind speed of 7.25 m/s at the 50 meters and
7.99 m/s at 100 meters (a and b), and from scenario 2, with the
minimum mean annual wind speed of 6 m/s at the 50 meters and 6.6
m/s at 100 meters (c and d).
Power
Transmission
System
Forecasting Turbine Location
Technical
Wind Power Challenges Forecasting Flexibility

Landscapes Sound
Environmental FInancial Technology

Birds
Visual Budget Policy

Compensation
Pollution
Rahaman, K. R., & Hassan, Q. K. PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF WIND ENERGY: A COMPREHENSIVE ANATOMY.
• China continues to lead in terms of wind capacity additions, with 37 GW added in 2022, including 7 GW in offshore
farms. The 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy, announced in 2022, provides ambitious targets for renewable
energy deployment, which should drive further deployment in the coming years.
• The European Union is accelerating wind deployment in response to the energy crisis, with 13 GW added in 2022.
New policies and targets proposed in the REPowerEU Plan and The Green Deal Industrial Plan are expected to be
important drivers of wind power investment.
• The United States included generous new funding for wind power in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced in
2022. Investment and production tax credits will boost capacity deployment in the medium term. In 2023, the first
large-scale offshore wind farms on the American continent are expected to come online on the East Coast of the
United States.
• The United Kingdom installed almost 3 GW of offshore wind capacity in 2022, more than the rest of the world
combined, excluding China. In 2022, the first floating wind farm was contracted in a Contract-for-Difference auction.
Beyond the KwH?
• Businesses related to Digital Technologies
• Businesses related to Sustainability

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Business Investment

⮚Energy Transition & Alternative Energies

⮚Beyond the KwH?

Philip W. Anderson, M. Tushman

Source: Adolfo José Araujo J.

percent compared to the previous month or July 2023 (5,725 units).

relatively low at 8.8 percent (market share).

• Origin: South Korea.

How about the control system?

Menteri Dalam Negeri Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala

Menteri Perindustrian Kepala Staf Kepresidenan

Despite current higher investment costs due to elevated commodity

silicon technology, for which the production

• Crystallisation into ingots and slicing into

• The highest potential comes from areas covered

• If Indonesia will be able to use this potential

• Investment in PV is expected to grow further in the coming years thanks to ambitious

doubling its 2021 growth.

1 China 414,811 11 Philippines 4,520

2 Japan 49,643 12 Thailand 4,515

3 Vietnam 17,366 13 Myanmar 3,331

6 Indonesia 6,602 16 Fiji 125

7 South Korea 6,541 17 New Caledonia 82

8 Malaysia 6,372 18 French Polynesia 48

9 New Zealand 5,342 19 Mongolia 23

10 North Korea 5,010 20 Samoa 12

• Modern bioenergy is the largest source of renewable energy globally today,

• Use of modern bioenergy has increased on average by about 3% per year

• More efforts are needed to accelerate modern bioenergy deployment to get

• Overall, provinces where we can use optimally

• Investment in wind generation increased by 20% in 2022, returning to growth after a

• Wind power potential can actually be harnessed in almost all

• Technical potential of wind power from scenario 1, with the

Forecasting Turbine Location

Wind Power Challenges Forecasting Flexibility

Environmental FInancial Technology

Visual Budget Policy

• Businesses related to Sustainability

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