LECTURE TWO

• APPLIED ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS

WISCONSIN INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY COLLEGE
COURSE CODE:WIUC 619

• SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION

 Recap
• Survey research use small groups of people
(subset of a given population), which is called
sampling
• Sampling is a strategy used to select elements
from a population.
• This enables researchers to make inferences
about a population that would be prohibitively
expensive to study
• Ideally a sample selected is representative of a
population(i.e. elements accurately portray
characteristics of population).
 … Recap
• Sample design addresses two basic issues; how elements
of the population will be selected & how many elements
will be selected.
– Sampling techniques - Probability and non – probability
sampling
– Estimating sample size - How large sample is required?
Problem Observed:
• Purposive Vs simple random sampling
• Sampling frame is list or records from which the sample
will be drawn.
• Sampling frame might not be totally inclusive of the study
population.
Estimating Sample Size
 Objective
• Estimating Sample Size
– A discussion and illustration of sample size
determination
 Introduction
• Inadequate, or excessive sample sizes influence the
quality and accuracy of research.
• Sample Size refers to the number of items to be selected
from the universe to constitute a sample.
• If the sample size is too small, it may not serve to
achieve the objectives
• Too large sample size might cause huge cost
• How large or small should be the sample size?
• As a general rule, the sample must be of an optimum
size
• Optimum  The ideal sample provides the most
precision for the least cost
 Criteria for sample size

• In addition to the purpose of the study and

population size, three criteria need to be
specified to determine the appropriate sample
size: the level of precision, the level of
confidence and the degree of variability in the
attributes being measured (Miaoulis and
Michener, 1976).
 Level of precision
• Precision is the range within which the population average
(or other parameter) will lie in accordance with the
reliability specified in the confidence level.
• Precision can be expressed as a percentage of the estimate
± or as a numerical quantity.
Example:
• If a study result is that 60% of farmers in the sample have
adopted a recommended practice with a precision rate of
±5%, then between 55% and 65% of farmers in the
population have adopted the practice.
• If the estimated income of a population is about Birr 4000
and the precision desired is ± 4%, then the range within
which the population parameter will lie between Birr 3840
& Birr 4160.
 Confidence Level

• Confidence level is the expected percentage of times that

the actual value will fall within the stated precision limits.
• confidence level is generally expressed as a percentage
• If we take a confidence level of 95%, then we mean that
there are 95 chances in 100 (or .95 in 1) that the sample
results represent the true condition of the population
within a specified precision range against 5 chances in 100
(or .05 in 1) that it does not.
• In other words, this means that, if a 95% confidence level
is selected, 95 out of 100 samples will have the true
population value within the range of precision specified.
 … Confidence Level

• Samples with extreme values are represented by the

shaded areas in the Figure in the next slide.
• There is always a chance that the sample you obtain does
not represent the true population value  this risk is
reduced for 99% confidence levels and increased for 90%
(or lower) confidence levels.
Precision, confidence level & significance level
• Precision is the range within which the answer may vary
and still be acceptable;
• Confidence level indicates the likelihood that the answer
will fall within that range,
• significance level indicates the likelihood that the answer
will fall outside that range.
 Degree of Variability
• Degree of variability refers to the distribution of attributes
in the population.
• The more heterogeneous a population, the larger the
sample size required
• The less variable (more homogeneous) a population, the
smaller the sample size.
• A proportion of 50% indicates a greater level of variability
than either 20% or 80%.
• This is because 20% and 80% indicate that a large majority
do not or do, respectively, have the attribute of interest.
• Proportion of .5 indicates the maximum variability in a
population  used in determining conservative sample
size, that is, the sample size may be larger than if the true
variability of the population attribute were used.
 Strategies For Determining Sample Size
• There are several approaches to determining the
sample size:
• Census for small populations
• Imitating a sample size of similar studies
• Using published tables
• Applying formulas to calculate a sample size.
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Using a Census For Small Populations
• Census is attractive for small populations (e.g., 200
or less).
• Census eliminates sampling error(next slide)
• In addition, some costs such as questionnaire
design and developing the sampling frame are fixed
Using a Sample Size of a Similar Study
• This calls for reviewing the procedures employed in
these studies
• A review of the literature can provide guidance
about "typical“ sample sizes which are used.
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Using Published Tables
• Determine sample size using published tables
Using Formulas to Calculate a Sample Size
• Determining sample size using formulas
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Sample size for infinite population
• In a population with standard deviation σ, with
an error e, & a confidence corresponding to z,
sample size, n, equals:

Where;
n = size of sample
e = acceptable error (the precision)
σp = standard deviation of population
z = number relating to the degree of confidence you wish to have in the
result.
 … Strategies for Determining Sample Size
Sample Size for finite population
• For finite population, sample size is given by:

Where;
N = size of population
n = size of sample
e = acceptable error (the precision)
σp = standard deviation of population
z = number relating to the degree of confidence you
wish to have in the result.
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Example:
• Determine the sample size for estimating the
true weight of the cereal containers for the
universe with N = 5000 on the basis of the
following information:
• The variance is 4 ounces on the basis of past
records.
• Estimate should be within 0.8 ounces of the true
average weight with 99% probability.
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Solution
• N = 5000;
• σp = 2 ounces (since the variance of weight = 4 ounces);
• e = 0.8 ounces (since the estimate should be within 0.8
ounces of the true average weight);
• z = 2.57 (as per the table of area under normal curve for at
99% confidence level ).
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
• In many cases the standard deviation of the
population is not available.
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Sample Size For Proportions
• For populations that are large, Cochran (1963:75)
developed the following equation to yield a
representative sample for proportions.

Where;
N0 is the sample size
e is the desired level of precision
p is the estimated proportion of an attribute that is
present in the population
q = 1-p
Z is found in statistical tables
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Example:
• Suppose you wish to evaluate an extension program in
which farmers were encouraged to adopt a new
practice.
• If you also have a large population & you do not know
the variability in the proportion that will adopt the
practice; assume p=.5 (maximum variability).
• Also assume that you desire a 95% confidence level and
±5% precision.
• Sample size is then given by:
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
• The above formula gives us the sample size for
infinite population when we are to estimate
the proportion in the universe.
• For finite population sample size is given by:
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Example:
• What should be the size of the sample if a simple random
sample from a population of 4000 items is to be drawn to
estimate the per cent defective within 2 per cent of the
true value with 95.5 per cent probability? Assume that the
proportion of defectives in the universe is 0 .02.
Solution:
• N = 4000;
• e = 0 .02 (the estimate should be within 2% of true value);
• z = 2.005 (at confidence level of 95.5%).
• Now we can determine the size of the sample using all this
information for the given question as follows:
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size

• But if the population is infinite, our sample size will be:

 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
• The reservation manager wants to be 95 per cent confident that the
percentage has been estimated to be within ± 3% of the true value.
What is the most conservative sample size needed for this problem?
Solution:
• Population is infinite;
• e = .03 (since the estimate should be within 3% of the true value);
• z = 1.96 (as per table of area under normal curve for the given
confidence level of 95%).
• As we want the most conservative sample size we shall take the
value of p = .5 and q = .5.
• Sample size is given by:
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Finite Population Correction For Proportions
• If the population is small then the sample size
can be reduced slightly.
• The sample size (n0) can be adjusted using as:

Where n is the sample size and N is the

population size.
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
Example:
• Suppose our evaluation of farmers' adoption of
the new practice only affected 2,000 farmers.
• The sample size:
 … Strategies For Determining Sample Size
A Simplified Formula For Proportions
• Yamane (1967:886) provides a simplified
formula to calculate sample sizes.
• Where n is the sample size, N is the population
size, and e is the level of precision:
 Other Considerations
• Size of the sample should be determined by a researcher
keeping in view the following points:
(i) Nature of universe
(ii) Number of classes proposed
(iii) Nature of study
(iv) Type of sampling
(v) Standard of accuracy & acceptable confidence level
(vi) Availability of finance
 Other Considerations
• In completing this discussion of determining sample size, there
are three additional issues. First, the above approaches to
determining sample size have assumed that a simple random
sample is the sampling design. More complex designs, e.g.,
stratified random samples, must take into account the variances
of subpopulations, strata, or clusters before an estimate of the
variability in the population as a whole can be made.
• Another consideration with sample size is the number needed
for the data analysis. If descriptive statistics are to be used, e.g.,
mean, frequencies, then nearly any sample size will suffice. On
the other hand, a good size sample, e.g., 200-500, is needed for
multiple regression, analysis of covariance, or log-linear
analysis, which might be performed for more rigorous analysis
and evaluation. The sample size should be appropriate for the
analysis that is planned.
 … Other Considerations
• In addition, an adjustment in the sample size may be needed to
accommodate a comparative analysis of subgroups (e.g., such as an
evaluation of program participants with nonparticipants). Sudman (1976)
suggests that a minimum of 100 elements is needed for each major group or
subgroup in the sample and for each minor subgroup, a sample of 20 to 50
elements is necessary.
• Similarly, Kish (1965) says that 30 to 200 elements are sufficient when the
attribute is present 20 to 80 percent of the time (i.e., the distribution
approaches normality). On the other hand, skewed distributions can result in
serious departures from normality even for moderate size samples (Kish,
1965:17). Then a larger sample or a census is required.
• Finally, the sample size formulas provide the number of responses that need
to be obtained. Many researchers commonly add 10% to the sample size to
compensate for persons that the researcher is unable to contact. The sample
size also is often increased by 30% to compensate for nonresponse.
• Thus, the number of mailed surveys or planned interviews can be
substantially larger than the number required for a desired level of
confidence and precision.
 Resources
• Determining sample size (PEOD6) [Israel (2003)]
http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/PD006
• Kothari, Research Methodology: Methods and
techniques
 Assignment 2
• Next week lecture will be delivered by students on
Measurement and Scales.
• There will be questions that group members are expected to
answer
• The assignment will be evaluated out of 30%
How to carryout the assignment
• Form 5 groups
• Each group will have 20 minutes for presentation
• You are expected to finish within your allotted time
• Grading will be:
– on the presentation – clarity & presentation of ppts, voice,
explanation, examples, answers to questions & timing