Week #5

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Basic Concepts of Probability
Probability and Statistics Lecturer Team
2024
Week 5 Statistics 2021
 Probability Experiments
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A probability experiment is an action through which specific results (counts,

measurements or responses) are obtained.

Example:
Rolling a die and observing the number that is rolled is a
probability experiment.

The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the outcome.

The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the sample space.

Example:
The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes.
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
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 Events
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An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the sample space.

Events are represented by

uppercase letters.
Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.

A simple event is an event that consists of a single outcome.

Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
This is not a simple event because the outcomes of event A are {2, 4, 6}.

Week 5 Statistics 2021

4 Classical Probability
Classical (or theoretical) probability is used when each outcome in a sample space is
equally likely to occur. The classical probability for event E is given by

Example:
A die is rolled.
Find the probability of Event A: rolling a 5.

There is one outcome in Event A: {5}

P(A) =
“Probability of
Event A.”
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5 Empirical Probability
Empirical (or statistical) probability is based on observations obtained from probability
experiments. The empirical frequency of an event E is the relative frequency of event E.

Example:
A travel agent determines that in every 50 reservations she makes, 12 will be for a cruise.
What is the probability that the next reservation she makes will be for a cruise?

P(cruise) =
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6 Law of Large Numbers
As an experiment is repeated over and over, the empirical probability of an event approaches
the theoretical (actual) probability of the event.

Example:
Sally flips a coin 20 times and gets 3 heads. The empirical probability is This is
not representative of the theoretical probability which is As the number of times
Sally tosses the coin increases, the law of large numbers indicates that the empirical
probability will get closer and closer to the theoretical probability.

Week 5 Statistics 2021

 Probabilities with Frequency Distributions
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Example:
The following frequency distribution represents the ages of 30 students in a statistics
class. What is the probability that a student is between 26 and 33 years old?

Ages Frequency, f

18 – 25 13 P (age 26 to 33)

26 – 33 8
34 – 41 4
42 – 49 3
50 – 57 2
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8 Subjective Probability
Subjective probability results from intuition, educated guesses, and estimates.

Example:
A business analyst predicts that the probability of a certain union going on strike is
0.15.

Range of Probabilities Rule

The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1, inclusive.
That is
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.

Impossible 0. Certain
to occur 5
Even to occur
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chance
 Complementary Events
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The complement of Event E is the set of all outcomes in the sample space that are
not included in event E. (Denoted E′ and read “E prime.”)

P(E) + P (E′ ) = 1 P(E) = 1 – P (E′ ) P (E′ ) = 1 – P(E)

Example:
There are 5 red chips, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in a basket. Find the probability
of randomly selecting a chip that is not blue.

P (selecting a blue chip)

P (not selecting a blue chip)

Week 5 Statistics 2021
 § 3.2
Conditional Probability and
the Multiplication Rule

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 Conditional Probability
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A conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring, given that another event
has already occurred.

P (B |A) “Probability of B, given A”

Example:
There are 5 red chip, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in a basket. Two chips are
randomly selected. Find the probability that the second chip is red given that the first
chip is blue. (Assume that the first chip is not replaced.)

Because the first chip is selected and not replaced, there are only 14 chips
remaining.

P (selecting a red chip|first chip is blue)

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Conditional Probability
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many hours a week they spent studying.
The results are in the table below. Find the probability that a student spends more than 10
hours studying given that the student is a male.

Less then More than

5 5 to 10 10 Total
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100
The sample space consists of the 49 male students. Of these 49, 16 spend more than 10
hours a week studying.

P (more than 10 hours|male)

 Independent Events
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Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events does not affect the
probability of the other event. Two events A and B are independent if
P (B |A) = P (B) or if P (A |B) = P (A).
Events that are not independent are dependent.

Example:
Decide if the events are independent or dependent.

Selecting a diamond from a standard deck of cards

(A), putting it back in the deck, and then selecting a ♦
spade from the deck (B). ♠
The occurrence of A does not
affect the probability of B, so the
Week 5 Statistics 2021
events are independent.
 Multiplication Rule
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The probability that two events, A and B will occur in sequence is
P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B |A).
If event A and B are independent, then the rule can be simplified to P (A and B) = P (A) · P
(B).

Example:
Two cards are selected, without replacement, from a deck. Find the probability of
selecting a diamond, and then selecting a spade.

Because the card is not replaced, the events are dependent.

P (diamond and spade) = P (diamond) · P (spade |diamond).

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 Multiplication Rule
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Example:
A die is rolled and two coins are tossed.
Find the probability of rolling a 5, and flipping two tails.

P (rolling a 5) =

Whether or not the roll is a 5, P (Tail ) =

so the events are independent.

P (5 and T and T ) = P (5)· P (T )· P (T )

Week 5 Statistics 2021

 § 3.3
The Addition Rule

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Week 5 Statistics 2021

 Mutually Exclusive Events
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Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time.

A and B

A
B A B

A and B are mutually exclusive. A and B are not mutually

exclusive.

Week 5 Statistics 2021

 Mutually Exclusive Events
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Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die. Event B: Roll

a 4 on a die.

A B
1
4
2

These events cannot happen at the same time, so the events are mutually
exclusive.
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 Mutually Exclusive Events
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Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards. Event B:

Select a heart from a deck of cards.

A J♦
9♥ 2♥
3♥ 10♥
B
J♠ J♥ A♥ 7♥
K♥ 4♥
J♣ 5♥ 8♥
6♥
Q♥

Because the card can be a Jack and a heart at the same time, the events are not
mutually exclusive.
Week 5 Statistics 2021
 The Addition Rule
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The probability that event A or B will occur is given by
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B ).
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the rule can be simplified to P (A or
B) = P (A) + P (B).

Example:
You roll a die. Find the probability that you roll a number less than 3 or a 4.

The events are mutually exclusive.

P (roll a number less than 3 or roll a 4)
= P (number is less than 3) + P (4)

Week 5 Statistics 2021

 The Addition Rule
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Example:
A card is randomly selected from a deck of cards. Find the probability that the card is a Jack
or the card is a heart.

The events are not mutually exclusive because the Jack of

hearts can occur in both events.

P (select a Jack or select a heart)

= P (Jack) + P (heart) – P (Jack of hearts)

Week 5 Statistics 2021

The Addition Rule
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many hours a week they spent studying.
The results are in the table below. Find the probability that a student spends between 5 and 10
hours or more than 10 hours studying.

Less then More than

5 5 to 10 10 Total
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100
The events are mutually exclusive.

P (5 to10 hours or more than 10 hours) = P (5 to10) + P (10)

 § 3.4
Counting Principles

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Week 5 Statistics 2021

Fundamental Counting Principle
If one event can occur in m ways and a second event can occur in n ways, the
number of ways the two events can occur in sequence is m· n. This rule can be
extended for any number of events occurring in a sequence.

Example:
A meal consists of a main dish, a side dish, and a dessert. How many different meals can
be selected if there are 4 main dishes, 2 side dishes and 5 desserts available?

# of main # of side dishes # of desserts

dishes

4 × 2 × 5 = 40
There are 40 meals available.
Fundamental Counting Principle
Example:
Two coins are flipped. How many different outcomes are there? List the sample space.

Start
1st Coin
Tossed
Heads Tail 2 ways to flip the coin
2nd Coin s
Tossed
Heads Tail Heads Tail 2 ways to flip the coin
s s

There are 2 × 2 = 4 different outcomes: {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

Fundamental Counting Principle
Example:
The access code to a house's security system consists of 5 digits. Each digit can be 0
through 9. How many different codes are available if
a.) each digit can be repeated?
b.) each digit can only be used once and not repeated?

a.) Because each digit can be repeated, there are 10 choices for
each of the 5 digits.
10 · 10 · 10 · 10 · 10 = 100,000 codes
b.) Because each digit cannot be repeated, there are 10 choices for
the first digit, 9 choices left for the second digit, 8 for the third,
7 for the fourth and 6 for the fifth.
10 · 9 · 8 · 7 · 6 = 30,240 codes
Permutations

A permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects. The number of different

permutations of n distinct objects is n!.

“n factorial”

n! = n · (n – 1)· (n – 2)· (n – 3)· …· 3· 2· 1

Example:
How many different surveys are required to cover all possible question arrangements if
there are 7 questions in a survey?

7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040 surveys
Permutation of n Objects Taken r at a Time
The number of permutations of n elements taken r at a time is

# in the
group # taken from
the group

Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In how many different orders can you
do so?
Distinguishable Permutations
The number of distinguishable permutations of n objects, where n1 are one type, n2 are
another type, and so on is

Example:
Jessie wants to plant 10 plants along the sidewalk in her front yard. She has 3 rose
bushes, 4 daffodils, and 3 lilies. In how many distinguishable ways can the plants be
arranged?
 Combination of n Objects Taken r at a Time
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A combination is a selection of r objects from a group of n things when order does not
matter. The number of combinations of r objects selected from a group of n objects
is

# in the
collection
# taken from the
collection
Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In how many different ways can you
do so if the order doesn’t matter?

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31
Application of Counting Principles
Example:
In a state lottery, you must correctly select 6 numbers (in any order)
out of 44 to win the grand prize.
a.) How many ways can 6 numbers be chosen from the 44 numbers?
b.) If you purchase one lottery ticket, what is the probability of
winning the top prize?

a.)
b.) There is only one winning ticket, therefore,

Week 5 Statistics 2021

32 EXERCISE 1
An industrial survey agency administered a quality inventory
Score Freque
test for negative-positive sentiments to 150 product types
,x ncy, f
produced by industries around Cikarang. Each individual
product was given a score from 1 to 5, where 1 was 1 24
extremely negative sentiment and 5 extremely positive 2 33
sentiment. A score of 3 indicated neither sentiment. The
results are shown in the table right. Construct a probability 3 42
distribution for the random variable x. Then graph the 4 30
distribution using a histogram.
5 21
33 EXERCISE 2

The CIKARANG land transportation department plans to develop a

new section of intercity highway and receives 16 bids for the project.
The CIKARANG city government plans to hire four of the bidding
companies. How many different combinations of four companies can
be selected from the 16 bidding companies?