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Week 1 - Introduction To Modelling and Simulastion

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22 views17 pages

Week 1 - Introduction To Modelling and Simulastion

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allfanacc
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© © All Rights Reserved
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MODELLING AND

SIMULATION
CS144-8P
WEEK 1
• INTRODUCTION TO MODELLING AND SIMULATION
OBJECTIVE
• Able to explain basic modeling and simulation (M&S) concepts
WHAT IS A MODEL
• A representation of an object, a system, or an idea in some form other than that of the entity
itself.

• A physical, mathematical, or otherwise logical representation of a system, entity,


phenomenon, or process.

• A Model is a simplification of a real system

• Modelling is the process of representing a system with a specific tool to study its behaviour.
SIMULATION
• A method for implementing a model over time.

• Helps analyze the performance of an existing or a proposed system.

• Need not be computer-based

• Are “dynamic” representations (of models)


HISTORY OF SIMULATION
• 1940 − A method named ‘Monte Carlo’ was developed by researchers (John von Neumann,
Stanislaw Ulan, Edward Teller, Herman Kahn) and physicists working on a Manhattan
project to study neutron scattering.
• 1960 − The first special-purpose simulation languages were developed, such as SIMSCRIPT
by Harry Markowitz at the RAND Corporation.
• 1970 − During this period, research was initiated on mathematical foundations of simulation.
• 1980 − During this period, PC-based simulation software, graphical user interfaces and
object-oriented programming were developed.
• 1990 − During this period, web-based simulation, fancy animated graphics, simulation-
based optimization, Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods were developed.
PURPOSES OF SIMULATION
1. Simulation enables the study of, and experimentation with, the internal
interaction of a complex system or of a subsystem within a complex system.
2. Informational, organizational, and environmental changes can be simulated, and
the effects of these changes on the model’s behavior can be observed.
3. The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model may be of great value
toward suggesting improvement in the system under investigation.
PURPOSES OF SIMULATION
4. By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs, valuable
insight may be obtained into which variables are most important and how
variables interact.
5. Simulation can be used as a pedadogical / instructional device to reinforce
analytic solution methodologies.
6. Simulations can be used to experiment with new designs or policies prior to
implementation, so as to prepare for what may happen.
7. Simulation can be used to verify analytic solutions.
PURPOSES OF SIMULATION
8. By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can be
determined.
9. Simulation models designed for training allow learning without the cost and
disruption of on-the-job learning.
10. Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can be
visualized.
11. The modern system (factory, service organization, etc.) is so complex that the the
interaction can be treated only through simulation.
WHEN SIMULATION IS NOT
APPROPRIATE!
1. When a problem can be solved by common sense.
2. When a problem can be solved analytically.
3. When it is easier to perform direct experiments.
4. If the costs exceeds the savings.
5. When resources are not available.
6. When time is not available.
7. If data is not available (since simulation uses lots of data).
WHEN SIMULATION IS NOT
APPROPRIATE!
8. If there is no enough time or personnel are not available. It is concerned with
verification and validation of the model.
9. When managers have unreasonable expectations, asking for too much to soon,
power of simulation is over estimated, simulation is not appropriate.
10. System behavior is complex.
MODELLING & SIMULATION ─
ADVANTAGES
• Easy to understand
• Allows to understand how the system really operates without working on real-time systems.
• Easy to test
• Allows to make changes into the system and their effect on the output without working on real-
time systems.
• Easy to upgrade
• Allows to determine the system requirements by applying different configurations.
MODELLING & SIMULATION ─
ADVANTAGES
• Easy to identifying constraints
• Allows to perform bottleneck analysis that causes delay in the work process, information, etc.
• Easy to diagnose problems
• Certain systems are so complex that it is not easy to understand their interaction at a time.
However, Modelling & Simulation allows to understand all the interactions and analyze their
effect. Additionally, new policies, operations, and procedures can be explored without affecting
the real system
MODELLING & SIMULATION ─
DISADVANTAGES
• Designing a model is an art which requires domain knowledge, training and experience.
• Operations are performed on the system using random number, hence difficult to predict the
result.
• Simulation requires manpower and it is a time-consuming process.
• Simulation results are difficult to translate. It requires experts to understand.
• Simulation process is expensive.
MODELLING & SIMULATION ─
APPLICATION AREAS
• Military applications,
• training & support,
• designing semiconductors,
• telecommunications,
• civil engineering designs & presentations,
• and E-business models.
Q&A
END
• Thank you for listening !!! 

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