PRINCIPLES OF

COUNTING AND
THEORIES OF
PROBABILITY
Introduction
Depositors can deposit or withdraw
money anytime through an automated
teller. Can you imagine now, how many
different number codes can be made
using four digits at a time? A problem like
this needs knowledge on counting
techniques.
FUNDAMENTAL
COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
 If activity 1 can be done in n1 ways,
activity 2 can be done in n2 ways, activity
3 can be done in n3 ways, and so forth;
then the number of ways doing these
activities on a specified order is the
product of n1, n2, n3 and so forth. In
symbols,
n1 x n2 x n3 ... nn
Example 1:
Suppose a school has three
gates, in how many ways can a
student enter and leave the school?
Some Possible Ways of
Solving the Problem
1. By listing
2. By using a table
3. By using a Venn Diagram
4. By using the Fundamental Counting
Principle
Example 2:
How many different 4-digit numbers
can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4,
and 5 if:
a) repetion is not allowed?
b) how many lf these are even?
c) how many are odd?
d) repetition is allowed?
THE COUNTING
PRINCIPLE FOR
ALTERNATIVE
CASES
 Suppose the ways of doing an
activity can be broken down into
several alternative cases where each
case does not have anything in
common with the other cases. If case
1 can be done in n1 ways, case 2 can
be done in n2 ways, case 3 can be
done in n3 ways, and so on, then the
number of ways the activity can be
done is the sum of n1, n2, n3, and so
on cases. In symbols,
Example:
How many different fractions less than 1
can be formed using the numbers 2, 3, 5, 7,
and 9?
Case 1: When the numerator is 2
Case 2: When the numerator is 3
Case 3: When the numerator is 5
Case 4: When the numerator is 7
Case 5: When the numerator is 9
 The fractions less than 1are 2/3, 2/5,
2/7, 2/9, 3/5, 3/7, 3/9, 5/7, 5/9, and 7/9.

4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 10 different fractions
less than 1.
FACTORIAL (n!)
Factorial n denoted by n! and is defined as
n! = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) ... (3)(2)(1)

The product 3x2x1 can be written in brief

factorial notation as 3! (read as "three factorial"
or "factorial 3")

Other example:
7! = 7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 5040
0! = 1
PERMUTATION
 Permutation refers to the
arrangement of objects with reference to
order. Given a set with n objects, then we
can take r objects from the set.
 The total number of permutations of n
distinct objects taken r at a time is
represented by the notation nPr and can be
evaluated using the formula
P(n,r) = n! / (n-r)!
where n is the number of objects and r is the
number of objects taken from n at a time.

The notation nPr or P(n,r) is read as "the

number of permutations of n objects taken r
at a time".
Permutation Rule 1

The number of permutations of

n distinct objects taken all together is
n!.
Example 1:
How many different signals can be
made using five flags if all the flags must
be used in each signal?

Solution:
P(5,5) = 5!
= 120 different signals
Example 2:
In how many ways can 5 people line up for
a group picture if:

a) two want to stand next to each other

b) two refuse to stand next to each other
Permutation Rule 2
The arrangement of n objects in a
specific order using r objects at a time is
given by the formula nPr = n! / (n-r)!
where r < n.
Example 1:
How many different ways can be a
chairperson and an assistant chairperson
be selected for a research project if there
are seven statisticians available?
Solution:
n = 7; r=2
7P2 = 7! / (7-2)!
= 7! / 5!
= 5040 / 120
= 42 ways
Example 2:
Suppose there are eight
machines, but only three spaces in
the display room are available for the
machines. In how many different
ways can the 8 machines be
arranged in the three available
spaces?
Solution:
There are 8 machines: n = 8 but only
3 machines can be displayed r = 3.

8P3 = 8! / (8-3)!
= 8! / 5!
= 8x7x6x5! / 5!
= 336 ways
Permutation Rule 3
The arrangement of n objects in a
circular pattern is given by the formula P
= (n-1)!

Example 1:
In how many ways can six persons be
seated around a circular table?
Example 2:
In how many ways can 8 beads be put
together to forma bracelet?

Solution:
n=8
P = (n-1)!
= (8-1)!
= 7!
= 5040 ways
Permutation Rule 4
The number of permutations of n
objects in which r1 are alike, r2 are
alike, r3 are alike, ... etc. is
P = n! / r1! r2! r3! ... rn! where
r1 + r2 + r3 + rn = n.
Example 1:
How many different permutations can be
made from the letters of the word
"MISSISSIPPI"?

Solution: Regroup the letters as MIIIISSSSPP.

The total number of letter is n=11, where r1=1
(there is 1 M), r2=4 (there are 4 I's), r3=4 (there
are 4 S), and r4=2 (there are 2 P's)
P = n! / r1! r2! r3!...rn!
= 11! / 1! 4! 4! 2!
= 39,916,800 / 1152
= 34,650 different permutations

Example 2:
How many distinguishable permutations
of the letters are there in the word
INTERFERENCE ?
COMBINATION
 Suppose we are interested only in the
number of different ways that r objects can
be selected from a given number of objects.
If the order of the objects is not important,
the total number of orders or arrangement
is called combination.
 The number of combinations of n objects
take r at a time is denoted by nCr of C(n,r) and
is given by the formula
nCr = n! / (n-r)!r!

Notice that the formula for nCr is the same

in the permutation formula n! / (n-r)! with an
r! in the denominator. This r! divides out the
duplicates from the number of permutations.
Example 1
Given the letters A, B, C, and D, list the
permutations and combinations for
selecting two letters.
Note that in permutation, AB is different from
BA but in combination, AB is the same as BA.
Example 2
In order to survey the opinions of
customers at local malls, a researcher
decides to select 5 malls from a certain
area with the total of 9 malls. How many
different ways can the selection be
made?
Example 3
In a club, there are 8 women and
5 men. A committee of 4 women and
2 men is to be chosen. How many
possibilities are there?
Example 4
A committee of 5 people must be
selected from 5 accountants and 8
educators. How many ways can the
selection be done if there are at least
3 educators in the committee?
PROBABILITY
 Probability is part of our everyday lives.
Probability is the chance that something will
happen. It is expressed mathematically as fractions
(1/6, 1/3, 8/9) or as decimals (0.25, 0.5, 0.78)
between zero and 1.
Assigning zero means that something can never
happen, and a probability of 1 indicates that
something will definitely happen.
THREE TYPES
OF
PROBABILITY
1. Classical Probability
defines the probability that an event will
occur as

Probability of an event = Number of

outcomes favoring an event / Total
number of outcomes in the experiment

P(E) = n/N
 It must be emphasized that the assigning of
probability assumes that each outcome of the
experiment is equally likely, and the probability of
an event is equal to the ratio of the number of
outcomes in the event over the size of the sample
space. One may say, "What is the probability of
getting a head in one toss?" answering this in a
mathematical way, we get:

P(head) = 1 (number of outcomes of one toss)

2 (total number of possible
outcomes of one toss
 Classical probability os often called a
priori probability, because, if we keep using
orderly examples like fair coins, unbiased
dice, and standard deck of cards, we can
dtate the answer in advance ( a priori )
without performing the activity or
experiment. Instead, we can make
statements based on logical reasoning
before ant experiments take place.
2. Relative Frequency of
Occurrence
- assigns a probability to an event as the
proportion of times that the event occurs as
the outcome of the experiment in the long
run. It is also known as the empirical method.
If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event E is observed fn times, then according to
this method, the probability of an event E is
given by P(E) = fn / n.
3. Subjective Probabilities
- are based on the beliefs of the person
making the probability assessment. It can
also be defined as the probability
assigned to an event by an individual,
based on whatever evidence id available.
The evidence may be in the form of
relative frequency of past occurrences,
or it may be just an educated guess.
 As an example, a statement like " I am
sure that tomorrow will not rain " is
making a subjective evaluation of the
probability that tomorrow will not rain.
Usually different people will have
different subjective probabilities for an
event.
 Subjective probability assignments are
frequently found when events occur only
once or at most a very few times. Just
remember if you have to be subjective
on a particular issue, the first thing you
should do is to gather as much
information about the issue as you can.
SAMPLE SPACES
AND EVENTS
Experiment
- any process or activity that generates
a set of data.
Experiments that are of real interest
are those whose outcomes cannot be
predicted with certainty.
In tossing a coin experiment, there are
two possible outcomes, head or tail.
Sample Space
- the set of all possible outcomes of a
statistical experiment and is denoted by the
symbol S.
Each outcome in a sample space is called
an element or a member of the sample space
or simply a sample point. If the sample space
has finite number of elements, we can
enumerate the members in a set form called
roster method.
 Elements are separated by commas
and enclosed by braces. Thus, the sample
space S of all possible outcomes when a
coin is tossed, may be written
S = { H, T }
where H and T refer to " head and tail ",
respectively.
 Example 1
Consider the experiment of rolling a fair die
once. The sample space for this experiment is
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
Let us consider some sets that may serve as
sample spaces.
S1 = { even, odd }
S2 = { numbers less than 4 } = { 1, 2, 3 }
S3 = { numbers divisible by 2 } = { 2, 4, 6 }
Example 2
A pair of coin is tossed once. The
sample space is
S = { (H, H) , (H, T) , (T, H) , (T, T)
where H and T are head and tail,
respectively.
In some experiments, it will be helpful
to list the elements of the sample space
systematically by means of a tree
diagram.
 Sample spaces with infinite number of
sample points are described by using the
rule method. For example, if the possible
outcome of an experiment is the set of
universities in the world offering business
courses, our sample space is written as:
S = { x|x is a university in the world
offering business courses }
Event
Let S be a sample space for an
experiment. Any subset A of S will be
referred to as an event.

Two events or subsets of S are of

particular interest; S itself and the empty
set or null set denoted by Ø.
Sure Event or Certain Event
- sample space corresponding to a physical
event that is certain to occur.

Impossible Event
- the empty set corresponds to physical events
that are impossible to occur.
Simple Event
- a set containing only one sample space.

Compound Event
- one that can be expressed as the union of
simple events.
Example 3
Consider the experiment of drawing a card
at random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards.
Let us consider some sets that may be served
as simple or compound events.

Let the sample space be S = { club,

diamond, heart, spade }.
 Note that the union of simple events
produces a compound event which is still
a subset of the sample space. Event A of
example 3 would be a compound event if
the 52 cards of the deck were the
elements of the sample space rather
than the 4 suits.
 The relationship between eventsand
the corresponding sample space can be
illustrated clearly using the Venn-Euler
diagram.
The rectangle represents the sample
space and the circles as events. These
events are subsets of the sample space S.
 In the figure, we can see that events A, B, and C are
all subsets of the sample space S. It is also clear that
events A and B have sample points in common;
events A and C have no sample points in common
and event C is a subset of B. Events A and B have at
least one sample point in common.
 Figure 6.2 might, therefore, depict a
situation in which one selects a card at
random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards
and observes whether the following
events occur:
A: the card is red
B: the card is a face card
C: the card is a spade
OPERATIONS WITH
EVENTS
Union of Events
The union of events A and B, denoted
by the symbol A U B, consists of all
sample points that are in event A, or in
event B, or in both A and B. When
referring to the union, we can also write
A or B.
The sample points of A U B may be
listed as in roster method or defined by
the rule method.
 It can also be illustrated using the Venn
diagram.
 Example 1
Let S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 }
Let A = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 } and B = { 3, 5, 7, 9 };
A U B = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 }
Example 2
Consider S = { a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i }
Let A = { a, b, c, d } and B = { e, f }; then
A U B = { a, b, c, d, e, f }
Intersection of Events
The intersection of two events A
and B, denoted by A ∩ B, consists
of all sample points that are in
both A and B. When referring to
the intersection, we can also
write A and B.
 The sample points in set A ∩ B
represent simultaneous occurrence
of both A and B, and therefore must
be those sample points that are
common to both A and B.
These sample points may either
be listed or defined in a set notation.
This operation can be listed using
Venn diagram.
Example 1
Let S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
A = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 } and
B = { 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 } ; then
A ∩ B = { 3, 5 }
Example 2
Let S = { a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j }
A = { a, b, c, d } and
B = { a, d, g, j } ; then
A ∩ B = { a, d }
Example 3
Let S be the set of all letters from
the English alphabet.
A is the set of all vowel letters; and B
is the set of all consonant letters,
then A ∩ B have no sample points in
common. Therefore,
A∩B=∅
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events A and B are mutually
exclusive if they have no sample
points in common. In symbols
A∩B=∅

It can be illustrated in Venn

diagram.
Example:
Let S = { 1, 2, 3, ... 10 }
A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and
B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 } ; then
A∩B=∅
 Complement of an Event
The complement of an event A with
respect to S is the set of all sample points
that are not in set A. It is denoted by A'.
The sample points of A' may be listed or
defined by the rule method. It can also be
illustrated in a Venn diagram.
Example
Suppose the set of all the students
enrolled in the University of the East will
be oir sample space. Let the subset A
corresponds to the students who are
taking statistics subject. Then the set of all
the students who are not taking the
subjects is called the complement of the
set of students taking statistics.
Example 1:
Let A be the event that a diamond
card is drawn from an ordinary deck
of 52 cards and let S be the entire
deck. Then A' is the event that the
card drawn from the deck is not
diamond.
Example 2
Let S = { Jack, Ace, King, Queen }
A = { Queen, Jack }
A' = { King, Ace }
Based on the definitions given,
several results may be verified:
1. A U A' = S
2. A ∩ A' = ∅
3. A ∩ ∅ = A
4. ∅ = S
5. S' = ∅
6. (A')' = A
7. A ∩ ∅ = ∅
 In many cases, the wording of a
problem identifies the appropriate
operation of sets. Remember,
when the conjunction or is used,
the union of two or more sets is
involved. The conjunction and (or
but) entails a set intersection; and
the word not calls for a set
complement.