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Lec 6a Decision Making. Introduction Book 2

The document provides an introduction to decision making. It discusses how decision making involves choosing between alternatives while considering values and uncertainties. It outlines the phases of decision making as problem structuring and evaluation. It provides examples of typical decision making problems and challenges involving multiple factors and risks. It emphasizes the importance of rational and creative thinking to make wise decisions.

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TALHA ANWAR 037
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24 views14 pages

Lec 6a Decision Making. Introduction Book 2

The document provides an introduction to decision making. It discusses how decision making involves choosing between alternatives while considering values and uncertainties. It outlines the phases of decision making as problem structuring and evaluation. It provides examples of typical decision making problems and challenges involving multiple factors and risks. It emphasizes the importance of rational and creative thinking to make wise decisions.

Uploaded by

TALHA ANWAR 037
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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27:32 She added: O you nobles!

Give me your opinion on the


problem with which I am now
faced; I would never make a
[weighty] decision unless you are
present with me.
INTRODUCTION
Chap1. BOOK-2

• No two decisions are quite alike


• However some similarities include
– Involve choice
– Values
– Limited knowledge
– Uncertainties of consequences
INTRODUCTION
• Decision Making Phases
– Problem structuring-involves identification of
alternatives and values that distinguish
alternatives from one another and uncertain
events that can affect values associated with a
particular alternative.
– Evaluation-is weighing relative desirability various
outcomes and likely impacts of various
uncertainties in deciding which alternative is on
balance preferable.
INTRODUCTION
• Decision Making Problems involves where the
problem solver is and where she wants to go
and yet she doesn’t know how to get there.
So you need creative thinking about ways to
get from where you are to where we want to
be.
INTRODUCTION
• A typical problem- you got flat tire. To change
removed lug nuts and places in hubcap.
Suddenly you knocked over the hub cap and
saw all five nuts fell into stream irretrievably.
What to do?
INTRODUCTION
• A typical problem- you got flat tire. To change
removed lug nuts and places in hubcap.
Suddenly you knocked over the hub cap and
saw all five nuts fell into stream irretrievably.
What to do?
• Get a lug nut from other three tires and try to
reach nearby shop and buy new lug nuts
INTRODUCTION
• In many situations no such clear cut solutions.
• many options will be available with number of
criteria, possible futures or both to weigh.
• Many problems become very difficult when multi
factors are involved. Need lot of deliberations in
evaluation stage. Few days of research,
quantification of values and perhaps use
computers.
• Decisions are difficult when multi factors are
involved or when outcomes are risky
INTRODUCTION
• Multi factors decisions involve tradeoffs.
Difficulty arises when one solution is best in
some aspects and another in rest of the
aspects.
• For example purchasing a car. Cars differ in
cost, safety, reliability, aesthetics and
comforts. Tradeoffs are required
INTRODUCTION
• Risky Decisions involve uncertainties. One solution best in
one situation and another in second situation. For example
whether to take along a gun or not. Investment decisions
are of same kind. If markets goes up investment proves
good otherwise bad. Tradeoff involved here also but across
futures and not values.
• Great deal of thinking required. Wrong thinking can cost
businesses and wars. Good thinking requires
supplementing intuition with analysis.
• Analysis is not a gift of evolution but a human
achievement. Such are called wise people and are held in
high regards.
INTRODUCTION
• Wisdom is capacity of judging rightly in
matters related to life and conduct; soundness
of judgment in the choice of means and ends.
• Wisdom requires courage to be rational,
creativity and balanced judgment.
DECISION CHECKLIST
• Approach problem rationally
• Make list of values
• Make a list of alternatives
• Make a decision table
• Try to create a win-win alternative
• Try to create an uncertainty proof alternative
• If your decision isn’t clear by this point,
compute the total value and select alternative
with highest total value.
13
RAMEELA IZZAT
8/2/2012
PAKISTAN ZINDABAD

‫ن‬
‫پ اکست ان ز دہ ب اد‬

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