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Probability Distributions-Sarin B

1) Probability distributions associate outcomes of statistical experiments with their probabilities of occurrence and are used to compute confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. 2) There are two types of probability distributions - discrete and continuous. Discrete distributions assign probabilities to distinct outcomes while continuous distributions use equations to represent probabilities over ranges of values. 3) Common probability distributions include the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. The binomial models counts of successes, the Poisson models events occurring at a constant rate, and the normal distribution approximates many processes due to the central limit theorem.

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28 views20 pages

Probability Distributions-Sarin B

1) Probability distributions associate outcomes of statistical experiments with their probabilities of occurrence and are used to compute confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. 2) There are two types of probability distributions - discrete and continuous. Discrete distributions assign probabilities to distinct outcomes while continuous distributions use equations to represent probabilities over ranges of values. 3) Common probability distributions include the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. The binomial models counts of successes, the Poisson models events occurring at a constant rate, and the normal distribution approximates many processes due to the central limit theorem.

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sarin
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Probability Distributions

Statistics:

• Statistics is the science of data. This involves collecting, classifying,


summarizing, organizing, analyzing and interpreting numerical
information.

• Most research studies result in a large volume of raw data which must
be suitably reduced so that the same can be read easily and can be used
for further analysis.
Key Terms
 Data
Facts or information that is relevant or appropriate to a decision maker

 Population
The totality of objects under consideration

 Sample
A portion of the population that is selected for analysis

 Parameter
A summary measure (e.g., mean) that is computed to describe characteristic
of the population
Variables
Independent variable: is a variable that can be controlled or manipulated.

Dependent variable: is a variable that cannot be controlled or manipulated.


Its values are predicted from the independent variable.

Discrete variables are measured in units that cannot be subdivided.


Example: Number of children

Continuous variables are measured in a unit that can be subdivided


infinitely. Example: Height
Types of Statistical Applications

• There are two major areas of statistics viz., descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.

Descriptive statistics uses numerical and graphical methods to summarize the information revealed in a
data set and to present that information in a convenient form.

Descriptive statistics do not allow us to make conclusions beyond the data we have analysed or reach
conclusions regarding any hypotheses we might have made.
• Examples:

1) Measures of central location


Mean,
Median,
mode and midrange

2) Measures of Variation
Variance,
Standard Deviation,
z-scores
• Inferential statistics utilizes sample data to make estimates, decisions,
predictions or other generalizations about a larger set of data.

• Inferential statistics are techniques that allow us to use these samples to


make generalizations about the populations from which the samples were
drawn.

• “Sampled” data are incomplete but can still be representative of the


population.
• Permits the making of generalizations (inferences) about the data.
• Probability theory is a major tool used to analyze sampled data.
Probability Distributions
• A Probability Distribution is a table or an equation that associates each
outcome of a statistical experiment with its probability of occurrence.

• Probability Distributions are a fundamental concept in statistics and are


used at both theoretical and practical levels.

• Eg:-to compute confidence interval for parameters and to calculate


critical regions of hypothesis tests.
Probability distributions are generally divided into two classes
1.Discrete probability distribution

• If a random variable is a discrete variable, its probability is called a discrete


probability distribution.
• In the case of a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the
discrete random variable can be associated with a non-zero probability.
• Examples of discrete probability distribution are
• a) Binomial Distribution
• b) Poisson Distribution
• c) Bernoulli Distribution
2. Continuous probability distribution

• If a random variable is a continuous variable, its probability is called a continuous


probability distribution.

• Examples of discrete probability distribution are


• a) Normal Distribution (Gaussian)
• b) Chi-square distribution
• c) F-distribution
• d) Student’s t-distribution

• The probability that a continuous random variable will assume a particular value is zero.
Therefore, continuous probability distribution cannot be expressed in tabular form.it can
be expressed as an equation or formula.
• Binomial Distribution:

• The Binomial Distribution describes discrete, not continuous, data,


resulting from an experiment known as Bernoulli process.

• A frequency distribution of the possible number of successful


outcomes in a given number of trials in each of which there is the
same probability of success.

• Binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution, defined by


the probability function-
• f(x) = nCx (p)x (q)n- x x = 0,1,2……n
• Where
• x = No. of successes
• n = number of trails
• p = probability of success
• q = (1-p)
• There are 4 conditions need to be satisfied for a binomial experiment
1.There is a fixed number of n trials carried out
2.The outcome of a given trial is either a “success” or “failure”
3.The probability of success (p) remains constant from trial to trial
4.The trials are independent, the outcome of a trial is not affected by the
outcome of any other trial.
Poisson Distribution

• Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses


the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed
interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant
rate and independently of the time since the last event.

• The poisson is a one-parameter discrete distribution that takes non-


negative integer values.
• F(x) = e-λ λx x = 0,1, 2.n
x!
• Where,

• λ = parameter of distribution.

• λ is real number, equal to the expected number of occurrences that


occur during the given time interval.
• Normal Distribution:

• The central limit theorem states that when a large number of random
variables are independently and identically distributed with finite
variance, their sum is approximately normally distributed.

• If the sample size is large enough, the distribution of the means will
follow a Gaussian distribution even if the population is not Gaussian.

• The measures of variation like SD give an idea about the distribution of


data around a central value. Using the mean and standard deviation, a
distribution can be created, which measures variability of observations
around mean. Such a distribution is called normal distribution.
• Characteristics of a Normal Distribution:

• The normal curve is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the exact
center of the distribution.
• The arithmetic mean, median, and mode of the distribution are equal
and located at the peak.
• Half the area under the curve is above the peak, and the other half is
below it.
• The normal distribution is symmetrical about its mean.

• It is often called the bell-shaped curve because the graph of its


probability density resembles a bell.
Bell Curve
Curve is asymptotic to the x- axis

Total area under the curve above the x-axis = 1 or 100%

The normal distribution is defined by the probability density function –


• In a normal distribution, about 68% of all observations lie within one
SD on either side of mean µ;

• roughly 95% of the observations lie within two SD.

• and about 99.7% lie within three SD.

• this is known as 68 – 99.7 rule or empirical rule. this rule applies to


only to normal distributions.
Normal Distribution

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