Database for Manpower Forecasting

• Database has a crucial role to play in manpower forecasting as it determines

the methodologies that can be adopted.
• There is a different database for macro and micro that are as follows:
• Database for Macro Forecasting:
• Population Statistics :Under it population of country by age, gender, education,
economic activities, status, migration, martial status, region and rural-urban
distribution are needed.
• Data on Economic Parameters : Under it data are required on time series basis are
inputs, output, capital, investment, wages, productivity, value added, depreciation by
industry, consumption, savings and expenditure on health by income starta of
population in rural-urban areas of each region.
• Information on Technologies: Details about existing technologies are needed by
industry specifying the implications of each technology for employment, generation
and investment. Similar information is also needed on emerging technologies by
industry.
• Data Base for Micro Forecasting : Under this, a well-defined Manpower
Information System (MIS) is needed at the enterprise or company level. MIS
have the following module.
• Personal Data Module :Identification particulars, educational particulars, educational
qualifications.
• Recruitment Module :Date of recruitment, grading in aptitude tests, grading in leadership
tests, overall grading, job preference and choice etc.
• Job Experience Module: Placement history, grade promotions, tasks performed grade-
wise, significant contributions etc.
• Performance Appraisal Module: Performance appraisal at each job held, job evaluation on
the basis of job description, communication rating, rating of interpersonal relationships,
rating of behavior in group commitment of corporate goals etc.
• Training and Development Module Nature of training received at each level, individual’s
evaluation of effectiveness of training, individual assessment of training needs vis-à-vis
currently being performed etc.
• Miscellaneous Module Record of compensation and benefits received health status
information relating personal problems which calls for the attention by the authorities,
security needs etc.
Manpower Supply Forecasting
• Manpower inventory: Manpower Inventory helps in determining and
evaluating the quantity and quality of the present manpower of an
organization. Therefore, through inventory organization comes to know that
what exists in the stock in terms of analysis (I) number of employees, (II) the
categories to which they belong (III) employees’ skills, abilities, potentials,
age etc.
• Forecasting the wastage: After having analyzed the above facts as a part of
manpower supply forecast it is necessary to know the possible wastage in
the existing stock in the future. These wastages may include, retirements,
deaths, terminations, resignations, deputations etc. The total wastage
worked out in the above terms must be deducted out of the existing
inventories in order to get the net manpower supply forecast.
Dimensions of Manpower Supply
• There are four dimension of manpower supply, that are as follows:
i) Stock and Flow
ii) Quantity and Quality
iii) Macro and Micro
• Stock and flow: Flow dimension refers to manpower supply over a
period of time say, over a five year plan period. Stock dimension
denotes manpower supply at a particular point of time like a target
date of an economic plan.
• Quantity and quality Quantitative dimension of manpower supply
indicates the number of persons available with the requisite
qualification/skills both employed as well as unemployed and seeking
jobs. On the other hand qualitative dimension of manpower supply
refers the characteristics of manpower supply such as specialization,
level, duration and quality of training length of job related experience
and aptitude and motivation are being considered.
• Macro and micro
Macro level manpower supply at any further date consists of
• current stock of manpower
• additions to current stock from new entrants to be entrants; and
• subtraction due to death, retirement, migration, mobility and withdrawal
from labour force.
Micro level manpower supply comprises
• external supply caused by recruitment; and
• internal supply relating from transfers, promotions and rebundancies
Methods of Supply Forecasting
• Macro Forecasting:
• Direct Method
• Indirect Method:
1. Estimating active life
2. Determining base period
3. Forecasting annual institutional out turn
4. Estimating attrition rate
5. Obtaining cumulated out-turn adjusted for attrition
6. Estimating manpower supply
• Estimating active life span :
Active life span is defined as the span of life over which an individual is
active in any given profession or occupation.
Active life span varies with the occupation and it may also vary from
individual to individual within an occupation.
For estimating average active life span of any occupation estimates of
two parameters namely − average age at entry into the occupation; and
− average age at retirement from the occupation.
• Determining base period:
Base period can be determined by subtracting the number of years in
the active life span from the target year.
For example assuming an active life span of 34 year for accountants
(from 21 years to 65 years of age) and target date as 2000 A.D., the
base year will be 1966 (i.e. 2000-34)
• Forecasting annual institutional out-turn:
To start with, past trends in enrolments are assumed as it is to cover the target
date, using suitable trend forecasting methods, the forecasts of enrolments thus
obtained are then converted into forecasts of out-turn, with the help of
observed trends in annual rates of completion of the educational level
concerned.
• Estimating attrition rate :
Attrition in the manpower supply relevant to any category of education may be
caused by the following four factors:-
− Death − Retirement − Migration − Occupation Mobility
• Micro Forcasting:
Micro level manpower supply includes external and internal supplies.