Trends-Lesson 2-What Is Trendspotting

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Lesson 2:

Trendspotting
How does someone spot a
trend?

How does someone start a


Trend?
Someone or something starts
or causes a trend. A person
who starts a trend is called
trendsetter.
The individual’s act or the
event has attracted attention,
earned acceptance, and created
strong interest and influence
on people whose number
keeps increasing as days go by.
An act or event will become “the next big
thing” when it is something different from
what is currently going on.

It will demonstrate an accelerated spread


among various sectors and areas and creates a
deep and wide scope of influence on people,
sectors, and the environment. It leads to
change. (Urgel, 2017)
According to futurists
(a futurist is one who
studies and predicts the
future, especially based
on current
trends.)Rehn and
Lindkvist (2013),
trendspotting refers
to the study of trends
and the way they
develop and affect
society.
Trendspotting is a
product of a
thorough and careful
analysis of anybody
who is sensitive to
what is happening in
society.
Some trends have a need to be categorized,
interpreted and labeled based on their contexts and
perspectives. But some trends are easy to identify
and do not need to be thoroughly analyzed.

For example Japan, is observed to have an aging


population, while the Philippines is increasing per
year.
According to Rehn and
Lindkvist,
trendspotting should
be differentiated from
cool- hunting which is
a hunt for those things
that will become
popular before they are
popular.
Trend analysis is based
on trendspotting but it
extends this into
developing future
scenarios and so they say
that to follow a trend, one
must not only be
conscious of what is
currently happening but
be wise enough to predict
the future. (Urgel, 2017)
Arzadon et.al. (2018) mentioned that trends and fads
are sometimes used interchangeably, and they are both
important for organizations and people to keep abreast
with the changing environment.

However, it is also important to distinguish the


difference between trends and fads to deepen our
understanding of survival and adaptability.

As members of society, we should know how fads and


trends to create changes in our society. Certain fads and
trends are created by dominant cultures
catering to their own interests.
A trend analysis starts with
scanning. And Scanning
demands depth and breadth of
analysis. It covers a wide
spectrum of sources in order to
reveal events in the community
that are commonly known and
commonly thought important.

Scanners particularly look at the


periphery of media where new
ideas are more likely to make
their first appearance.
For example, while technology and globalization were
not discernible as an issue on network television and in
national papers in the 1960s, it was being reported far
earlier in economic and political journals.

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), was


not noticeable until in the 1980s, but it was being
reported far earlier in medical journals.
Spotting a trend is more than
just being aware of what people
say, but more importantly on
what they do.

Trendspotters do not content


themselves with secondary sources.
They immerse themselves directly
with people, within places, and in
events where significant moments
may be happening. Early
identification is a key to
trendspotting.
Scanning comes first before spotting a trend. After all
materials are gathered, they are analyzed and contextualized
trend significance.

From each new event or data point, the analyst will be asking
the following:
1. Does this fit a pattern?
2. Is this suggestive of a pattern?
3. Is this part of a bigger phenomenon, a growth or decline of
significance that will change the environment?
4. Does it offer threat and opportunities, and will it change
what is required or organizations in order for it to be
successful?
Projecting Trends

When a trend is identified,


the next logical step is to ask,
“where is this trend heading
in the future?”

Trend-based projection is the


main business of forecasting
and the most common basis of
prediction among professional
forecasters by far.
Trend projection simply recognizes the
movement of the trend into the future
and neglect the cause of these events.

For example, we do not have to debate


why people are choosing to migrate to
other countries and what they are doing
there. We simply notice that there is a
migration trend and forecast in the
future.

It assumes that what happened in the


past can happened in the future.
The forces behind a trend are called change drivers
that make trend what they are and is a vital element of
change.

While enablers is a catalyst that enhances a driver.


For example, the development of a new technology
that helps mitigate climate change can be facilitated
through government laboratory funding, etc.
Friction is the resistance to change that occurs naturally and
inevitably due to learned habits of seeing and doing things. This
comes from the tendency of people judging innovations against
the current way they do things as they are socially and culturally
invested in known, familiar patterns.

Blockers may take the form of a new law, politicking, street


protests, and other factors. They occur when people try to stop a
change or delay it.

The future is clearly to recognize the power of information and


valued participation of the people in public affairs.
Major Categories of driving
forces and blockers.

1. Technology.
Is the most powerful force of
change in the world today. It
provides new capabilities that
make change possible in products
and services, solutions, and
business models. It becomes a
blocker when is fails to provide a
solution to a problem it creates.
2. Powerful individual and powerful organizations.
There are celebrated and charismatic figures in history
who significantly change the future. Examples of such
figures are Jesus of Nazareth, Nelson Mandela, Bill
Gates etc.

When the force of individuals is combined with


institutional power of government, military, or corporate
power, the more it can expedite change or block them.
2. Powerful individual and
powerful organizations.
There are celebrated and
charismatic figures in history who
significantly change the future.
Examples of such figures are Jesus
of Nazareth, Nelson Mandela, Bill
Gates etc.

When the force of individuals is


combined with institutional power
of government, military, or
corporate power, the more it can
expedite change or block them.
3. Ideas and ideologies
Our ideas and ideologies compel
and drive us to actions in the
future whether these are in the
social, political, economic, and/or
technological arena. Some
examples are democracy and
environmental advocacy may be
driving and blocking forces of
change.

They can also weaken or


strengthen a trend.
4. Social and Moral values
These are related to ideas, but
have a slightly different function
because values generally change
very slowly, if at all, so they
apply brakes on the future.

Often social values are the “the


last line of defense” against a
rush technologies, and check
whether or not they lead us to
questionable place. For example
cloning technology,
References:
- Wired: Trends, Networks, and
Critical Thinking Skills in the 21 st

Century pages 14-22, 28

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