d u l i n g
S ch e
Pro ject
By
Dr.- Engr Taiba Zahid
Network diagramming method
Importance of project graphics
AoA, AoN network and their comparison
Consolidation models
Multi-mode models
Network diagrams are the preferred
technique for showing activity sequencing
A network diagram is a schematic display of
the logical relationships among, or
sequencing of, project activities
Two main formats are the arrow and
precedence diagramming methods
Involves reviewing activities and determining
dependencies
A dependency or relationship is the
sequencing of project activities or tasks
You must determine dependencies in order
to use critical path analysis
Mandatory dependencies: inherent in the
nature of the work being performed on a
project, sometimes referred to as hard logic
Discretionary dependencies: defined by the
project team; sometimes referred to as soft
logic and should be used with care since they
may limit later scheduling options
External dependencies: involve relationships
between project and nonproject activities
Originally used by CPM and PERT methods
Now less common than activity-on-node, still
used and introduces an additional useful
concept – that of events
Activities are represented by links (or arrows)
and the nodes represent events
For Exclusive Use of EECS811 Students
Saiedian © 2007 Chapter 6-7
Activity : any portions of project (tasks) which required
by project, uses up resource and consumes
time – may involve labor, paper work,
contractual negotiations, machinery operations
Activity on Arrow (AOA) showed as arrow, AON
– Activity on Node
Event : beginning or ending points of one or more
activities, instantaneous point in time, also
called ‘nodes’
Network : Combination of all project activities and the
events
SUCCESSOR
PRECEEDING ACTIVITY
EVENT
Activities that do not require resources but
may in some cases take time.
They are drawn as broken arrows.
They are always subject to the basic
dependency rule.
Representation of dependency time: lags
(no dummy activities are used)
Artifical Start and Finish activities are used when needed, to have only one
beginning and end of the diagram
a c
START FINISH
b d
Elements: Activities & Events
Feature: Precedence relations
Activity Duration Precedence
A 4 -
B 5 -
C 3 A
D 3 A
E 2 B, C
Activity-on-the-arc Activity-on-the-node
Used by most
Originally used for
commercial software
PERT and CPM
tools
Network representation Unique network
is not unique due to representation
dummy activities (no dummy arcs)
Can be easily extended
to
Restricted to finish-
start-start, start-finish,
start with zero time-
finish-start and finish-
lags
finish relations with
non-zero time-lags
Goal
To analyze critical activities of the project
To monitor & control the project
Elements: Activities & Events
Feature: Precedence relations
Activity Duration Precedence
A 4 -
B 5 -
C 3 A
D 3 A
E 2 B, C
For fairly simple projects, the critical path is usually
the longest path through the project.
For projects with several parallel and interlinked
activities, this may not always be the case.
For more complicated projects, the critical path can
be determined with an ‘earliest time’ forward sweep
through the diagram followed by a ‘latest time’
reverse sweep.
Act EST EFT LST LFT TF
A 0 4 0 4 0
B 0 5 2 7 2
C 4 7 4 7 0
D 4 7 6 9 2
E 7 9 7 9 0
TF = LST(act) – EST(act)
This project cannot be completed in less than 9 weeks given the expected duration of the
activities.
However, activities B & D could be delayed or extended by up to 2 weeks each without
affecting the minimum project completion time. This is termed ‘float’ or ‘slack’ time.
4
A 4
4
0 D
0 C
3 3 Project
Project B
End
Start 5
7 E 9
7 2 9
What is the total time to complete the project?
What are the scheduled start and completion times for each activity?
What activities are critical and must be completed as scheduled in order to
keep the project on time?
How long can non-critical activities be delayed before they cause a delay
in the project’s completion time?
Slack or Float shows how much allowance each activity has, i.e how long
it can be delayed without affecting completion date of project
If any activity on the critical path is shortened or extended, project time
will be shortened or extended accordingly
If can spend resources to speed up some activity, do so only for critical
activities. Don’t waste resources on non-critical activity, it will not
shorten the project time.
If resources can be saved by lengthening some activities, do so for non-
critical activities, up to limit of float.
Since 1917; Useful for showing work vs time in form of bar charts
•Another variation is resource-Time Gantt
charts
• Can draw directly or from CPM/PERT network
Activity Duration Precedence
A 3 -
B 3 A
C 4 -
D 1 C
E 3 B, D
F 2 A, B, D
G 2 C, F
H 4 G
I 1 C
J 3 E, G
K 5 F, H, I
Activi Durati Earlie Earlie Latest Latest Float
ty on st st Start Finish
Start Finish
A 3 0 3 0 3 0
B 3 3 6 3 6 0
C 4 0 4 1 5 1
D 1 4 5 5 6 1
E 3 6 9 13 16 7
F 2 6 8 6 8 0
G 2 8 10 8 10 0
H 4 10 14 10 14 0
I 1 4 5 13 14 9
J 3 10 13 16 19 6
K 5 14 19 14 19 0
List all activities and expected durations.
Construct CPM diagram for activities list.
Determine EARLIEST start time for each event
(forward scheduling).
Determine LATEST start time for each event
(backward scheduling).
Identify the CRITICAL PATH (and the ‘float’ time
for any non-critical activities).
The PERT (Program evaluation and
review technique) approach addresses
situations where uncertainties must be
considered.
Now assume that the activity times are independent
random variables.
Further, assume that there are n activities in the project,
k of which are critical. Denote the activity times of the
critical activities by the random variables di with mean
E(di) and variances V(di), for i=1,2, …, k.
Then, the total project time (the total length of the
critical path) is the random variable:
X= d1 + d2 +,…, +dk
Example: An activity was performed 40 times in the
past, requiring a time between 10 to 70 hours. The
figure below shows the frequency distribution.
The mean project length, E(X), and its variance, V(X):
E(X)= E(d1)+E(d2)+,…, +E(dk)
V(X)= V(d1)+V(d2)+,…, +V(dk)
Assumption:
Activity times are independent random variables.
The project duration (=sum of times of activity on a critical
path) is normally distributed.
Based on the Central Limit Theorem, which states that the
distribution of the sum of independent random variables is
approximately normal when the number of terms in the sum
if sufficiently large.
1. The deterministic approach (CPM), which ignores
uncertainty thus results in a point estimate
2. The stochastic approach (PERT), which considers the
uncertain nature of project activities by estimating
the expected duration of each activity and its
corresponding variance.
To analyse the past data to construct the probabilistic
distribution of a task.
Three key values we use in the time estimate for each
activity:
a = optimistic time, which means that there is little chance
that the activity can be completed before this time;
m = most likely time, which will be required if the execution is
normal;
b = pessimistic time, which means that there is little chance
that the activity will take longer.
Probability-distribution
a m b
a 4m b
Expected task time: t
6 2
ba ba
Standard deviation: (
2
)
6 6
Activity IP a m b
A: Prepare initial design - 1 3 5
B: Identify new potential clients - 4 5 12
C: Develop prospectus for tenants A 2 3 10
D: Prepare final design A 1 8 9
E: Obtain planning permission D 1 2 3
F: Obtain finance from bank E 1 3 5
G: Select contractor D 2 4 6
H: Construction G, F 10 17 18
I: Finalize tenant contracts B, C, E 6 13 14
J: Tenants move in I, H 1 2 3
1. Schedule the project.
2. What is the probability of completing the
project in 36 weeks?
Act a m b t 2 t
1 4 3 5
3
A 1 3 5 3 0.44 6
B 4 5 12 6 1.78
C 2 3 10 4 1.78 (124 ) 1.78
2
2
6
D 1 8 9 7 1.78
E 1 2 3 2 0.11
F 1 3 5 3 0.44
G 2 4 6 4 0.44
H 10 17 18 16 1.78
I 6 13 14 12 1.78
J 1 2 3 2 0.11
I,12
B,6
J,2 End
1 E,2
C,4
F,3
A,3 D,7 G,4 H,16
1. Critical path: A-D-E-F-H-J.
2. Expected Completion time: 33 weeks
3. What is the probability to complete the project
within 36 weeks?
-- Use the critical path to assess the probability
Expected project completion time:
Sum of the expected activity times
along the critical path. Used to obtain
= 3+7+2+3+16+2 = 33 probability of project
completion
Variance of project-completion time
Sum of the variances along
the critical path.
2 = 0.44+1.78+0.11+0.44+1.78+0.11= 4.66
= 2.15
P(X 36) = ? P(Z 1.4) = ?
Assume X ~ N(33, 2.15 ) 2
T - 36 - 33
z = = = 1.4
.
2.15
Normal Standardized Normal Distribution
Distribution
= 2.15 =1
z
= 33 36 X = 0 1.4 Z
z
PERT SEEM 3530 49
Using PERT, it is also possible to estimate the
completion time for a desired completion probability.
For example, for a 95% probability the corresponding
Z value is Z0.95 = 1.64.
PERT SEEM 3530 51
Using PERT, it is also possible to estimate the
completion time for a desired completion probability.
For example, for a 95% probability the corresponding
Z value is Z0.95 = 1.64.
Solving for the time T for which the probability to
complete the project is 95%, we get
Z0.95 = (T – 33)/2.15 = 1.64
T = 33 + (2.15)(1.64) = 36.5
In project scheduling, we use a beta
distribution as well to represent the time
needed for each activity.
SEEM 3530
CPM PERT
1 Uses network, calculate float or slack,
identify critical path and activities, Same as CPM
guides to monitor and controlling
project
2 Uses one value of activity time Requires 3 estimates of activity time
Calculates mean and variance of time
3 Used where times can be estimated Used where times cannot be estimated
with confidence, familiar activities with confidence.
Unfamiliar or new activities
4 Minimizing cost is more important Meeting time target or estimating
percent completion is more important
5 Example: construction projects, Example: Involving new activities or
building one off machines, ships, etc products, research and development
etc
