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Probability

The document discusses key concepts in probability including: 1) It defines probability as a measure of the likelihood of events occurring, and outlines the axiomatic approach to defining probability mathematically. 2) It discusses important probability distributions like the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions and their properties and uses. 3) It explains the importance of the normal distribution as the "cornerstone of statistical analysis" and outlines key properties like symmetry, peaks, and proportion of data within standard deviations of the mean.

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Ameena Muhammed
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9 views37 pages

Probability

The document discusses key concepts in probability including: 1) It defines probability as a measure of the likelihood of events occurring, and outlines the axiomatic approach to defining probability mathematically. 2) It discusses important probability distributions like the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions and their properties and uses. 3) It explains the importance of the normal distribution as the "cornerstone of statistical analysis" and outlines key properties like symmetry, peaks, and proportion of data within standard deviations of the mean.

Uploaded by

Ameena Muhammed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

• Modern statistics also has to provide for


estimation of population parameters on
the basis of sample statistic.

• Drawing inferences about sample


statistic on the basis of population
parameters.
• Testing of hypothesis with regard to 1
and 2 above.

• Decision making under risk and


uncertainty by estimating the degree of
risk.
• A numerical measure of uncertainity is
provided by a very important branch of
Statistics called the “Theory of Probability”

• Prof Ya-Lin-Chou “Statistics is the science


of decision making with calculated risks
in the face of uncertainity.”
Terminology
• Experiment
• Any operation that results in two or more
outcomes is called an experiment.
• Eg.Tossing a fair coin is an experiment.
• Rolling an unbiased die .
• Drawing a card from pack of cards.
• The result of a random experiment is
called outcome.

• The performance of a random experiment


is called a trial.

• The outcome is an event


• Event ---- Simple or Compound
• Simple Event : if it corresponds to a single
possible outcome.

• Eg.Tossing a die–
• chance of getting 3
• chance of getting an odd number.
Favourable Cases
• The number of outcomes which result
in the happening of a desired event are
called favourable cases.

• Eg.single throw of a die---- the number


of favourable cases for getting an odd
number are three.ie 1,3 and 5 .
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two or more events are mutually
exclusive if the happening of any one of
them prevents the happening of all other
in a simple experiment.

• Eg.Tossing a coin---getting head and


tail .
• If a baby is male, cannot be female
Equally Likely Events
• Two or more events are said to be
equally likely if the chance of their
happening is equal.

• Eg.Throwing of an unbiased dice, coming


up of 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 is equally likely.
Independent Events

– Two events are independents if the occurrence of a


event does not affect the occurrence of the second
event.
– Example
• If the first new born is male, does not affect that
the next be female.
– Probability of two independent events is obtained
multiplying individual probabilities of each event.
– This is the multiplicative law of probability.
Definitions
• Probability is the possibility that an event
occur.
• It measures the likelihood that a particular
event will or will not occur.

• Probability of an event=No. of favourable


cases for the event/Total no. of cases both
favourable as well unfavourable to the event
•
Examples
• If we throw a coin in the air once, the
probability to obtain head is ½, because
only once we can obtain head or tail.
• Suppose in a class there are 100 students
out of whom 90 boys and 10 are
girls.probability of a student chosen at
random out of the student in the class to
be a girl is 10/100=0.1
Modern approach to Probability
• Introduces probability as a number
associated with each event.

• Based on certain axioms which express the


rules for operating with such numbers.

• This means that the probability of events


must only satisfy these axioms.
Axiomatic Approach to
Probability

• Let S be the sample space


corresponding to a random experiment
and let A be any event.Then P(A) is
known as the probability of an event A
if it satisfies the following axioms.
• Axiom 1 : P(A) >= o

• Axiom 2 : P(S) = 1

• Axiom 3 : If A and B are disjoint events


then P(AUB)= P(A)+P(B).
• If a result is sure that occur the probability
will be 1 (100%).
• Probability of an event happening is
denoted by “p”
• If a event is sure that does not occur the
probability will be 0.
• Probability of an event not happening is
denoted by ‘q’
Probability

• Probability to have
amebiasis is 59/200=
0.295= 29.5% Results for n (%)
E. histolytic
Positive 59 (29.5)
• Probability of does not Negative 151 (70.5)
have amebiasis es
151/200= 0.705 = 70.5% or
1 - 0.0.295=0.705 = 70.5%
Empirical Distributions
• Observed frequency distributions -
empirical distributions or experimental
distributions

• Used to estimate certain values in the


population on the basis of sample studies.

• Situations where we can derive expected


values on the basis of some relationships.
• Eg.Suppose we toss a coin.
• Probability of a head is ½ and tail is ½.

• Toss a coin 100 times expected no. of heads is


50
• .
• Toss a coin 100 times.Heads come up 60
times.This is the observed frequency of heads,
Theoretical Frequency
Distributions

• Theoretical or probability distributions are


such distributions which are not obtained
by actual observations or experiments but
are mathematically deduced on certain
assumptions.
Standard probability Distributions
• Binomial Distributions

• Poisson Distributions

• Normal Distributions OR Gaussian


Distributions
Height in cms No of men

142.5 3
145.0 8
147.5 15
150.0 45
152.5 90
155.0 155
157.5 194
160.0 Mean 195 ( 68 % )
162.5 136
165.0 93
167.5 42
170.0 16
172.5 6
175.0 2
Normal Curve
• It is often called the corner stone of
statistical analysis and drawing of
inferences.
Properties of Normal Curve
• It is a bell shaped curve
• It is symmetrical about its mean
• At the centre of the distribution which is
peaked all the three measures of central
tendency mean,median and mode
coincide.
• Total area of the curve above the x-axis is
one sq unit
• It has two points of inflections(points at
which the curve changes its direction) are
at a distance of one standard deviation
from the mean
• About 68.268% of the observations will be
falling within mean plus or minus one
standard deviation,95.45% within two
standard deviations and 99.73% within
three standard deviations
• It is mesokurtic.

• The curve is asymptotic to the base line.It


continues to approach but never touches
the base line.

• It is unimodal as there is only one point of


maximum frequency.
Importance of the normal
distribution
• The whole data can be summarised by two
quantities – mean and sd

• Can find out the probability of getting a


person with a specific characteristic in a
group
• Can be used to find confidence limits of
population parameters
Variability and AveragesPatients
Controls
• Graph 1: Bipolar

Frequency
disorder
– Different variability
– Same averages
Depressed Manic

Patients
Frequency Controls
• Graph 2: Blood sugar
levels
– Same variability
– Different averages
Low High
The Normal Distribution
• Normal distributions with different
population variances and the same
population mean
2 = 1

2 = 2

f(x) 2 = 3
2 = 4
The Normal Distribution
• Normal distributions with different
population variances and different
population means
2 = 1  1

2 = 3  3
Standard Normal Curve
• Normal curve in which mean is zero and
the standard deviation is unity.

• Z,standard normal variate

• Area under the standard normal curve is


unity.
Standard Normal Variate
• Deviation of an individual observation
from the mean in a normal distribution or
curve is called standard normal variate
and is given the symbol Z.
• It is measured in terms of standard
deviation (SD) and indicates how such an
observation is bigger or smaller than mean
in units of standard deviation.
• Z = Individual observation - Mean/SD

• Z is called the standard normal deviate or


relative normal deviate

• Eg: If x=170 cm , mean = 166 cm and


• SD = 4cm then
• Z = 170 – 166/4= 1
"Life is good for only two
things, discovering
mathematics and teaching
mathematics"

Siméon Poisson (1781-1840)

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