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Lecture 9

This document discusses key concepts in probability and statistics including: 1) Estimation is making a judgment about an unknown population parameter using sample observations through point and interval estimation. 2) Point estimation derives a single value from a sample to estimate the true population parameter value using a point estimator such as the sample mean. 3) Interval estimation provides a range of values that the population parameter is likely to fall within using a confidence interval with a specified level of confidence such as 95%. 4) Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating point estimates of the population mean and constructing confidence intervals for the population mean at different confidence levels.

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31 views16 pages

Lecture 9

This document discusses key concepts in probability and statistics including: 1) Estimation is making a judgment about an unknown population parameter using sample observations through point and interval estimation. 2) Point estimation derives a single value from a sample to estimate the true population parameter value using a point estimator such as the sample mean. 3) Interval estimation provides a range of values that the population parameter is likely to fall within using a confidence interval with a specified level of confidence such as 95%. 4) Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating point estimates of the population mean and constructing confidence intervals for the population mean at different confidence levels.

Uploaded by

ishishahid4
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and Statistics

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria Awan 1


Estimation:
Estimation is a procedure of making judgment about
the unknown value of a population parameter by
using the sample observations.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 2


Point Estimation:
Point estimation is to obtain a single number from
the sample that is intended for estimating the
unknown true value of a population parameter.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 3


Point Estimator:
A point estimator is a sample statistic that is used to estimate the unknown true
value of a population parameter.
 We refer to as the point estimator of the population mean

 S is the point estimator of the population standard deviation

 is the point estimator of the population proportion p.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 4


Point Estimate:
A point estimate is a specific value of an estimator
computed from the sample data after the sample
has been observed.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 5


Question: The following data are from a simple random
sample.
5 8 10 7 10 14
What is the point estimate of the population mean?

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 6


Answer: point estimate is a calculation from Sample. And above the
Sample information.
Mean = = (5 + 8 + 10 + 7 + 10 + 14)/6
54 / 6 = 9
9 is the point estimate for the Population Mean.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 7


Difference Between Point Estimate and Interval
Estimate
 A point estimate is a single value estimate of a parameter. For
instance, a sample mean is a point estimate of a population mean.
 A point estimator cannot be expected to provide the exact value of the
population parameter.
 The purpose of an interval estimate is to provide information about
how close the point estimate, is to the value of the parameter.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 8


Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:  Known

where: is the sample mean


Margin of error

1-
s is the population standard deviation
n is the sample size
Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 9
Question
Sales team of KFC Gujranwala surveyed 121 customers and obtained a
sample mean amount spent on fast food items per month by the citizens
of Gujranwala is Rs:8200, X̅ = 8200, n = 121. Historical data indicates
that amount spent on fast food is normally distributed with the standard
deviation of Rs2000, σ = 2000. What is the confidence interval at 5%
level of significant? Also interpret the result.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 10


Solution:

=8200
α = 5% = 0.05 = = = 1.96

8200 ± 1.96 * 182


8200 ± 357
7843 to 8557.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 11


Interpretation: We are 95% confident that the mean
spending of the citizens of Gujranwala on fast food is
between Rs7843 to 8557.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 12


Example
A physical therapist wished to estimate, with 99% confidence level, the
mean maximal strength of a particular muscle in a certain group of
individuals. He is willing to assume that strength scores are
approximately normally distributed with a population variance of 144. A
sample of 15 subjects who participated in the experiment yielded a
mean of 84.3. Also interpret the result.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 13


Solution

Our 99 percent confidence interval for µ, then, is;

Interpretation: we are 99% confident that the population mean is


between 76.3 and 92.3 Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 14
Question:
Spring break can be a very expensive holiday. A sample of 80
students is surveyed, and the average amount spent by
students on travel and beverages is $593.84. The population
standard deviation is approximately $369.34.
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean
amount of money spent by spring breakers. Also interpret the
result.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 15


Solution:

=
= 41.293
593.84 – 67.926 593.84 + 67.926
525.914 to 661.766
Interpretation: we are 90% confident that the value of population
mean will be from 525.914 to 661.766.

Lecturer: Muhammad Zakria 16

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