Probability

CHAPTER 6

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 Meaning of Probability

 Probability is the branch of math that studies patterns of

chance.
 A probability is a number that tells you how likely
(probable) something is to happen.
 For example “Probably it may rain tomorrow”.
 Probabilities can be written as fractions, decimals or
percentages.
The theory of probability has been developed in 17th
century. It has got its origin from games, tossing coins,
throwing a dice, drawing a card from a pack.
Probability =

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 Example

Tossing a Coin
When a coin is tossed,
there are two possible outcomes:
Head (H) or Tail (T)
We say that the probability of the coin landing H is ½
And the probability of the coin landing T is ½

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 Examples
Example1: When a single die is thrown, there are six possible outcomes:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The probability of any one of them is
Example2: The chances of rolling a "4" with a die
Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)
Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)
So the probability =
How many possible ways are there of obtaining an even number?
There are three possibilities: 2,4 and 6
The probability of obtaining an even number is = =0.5 or 50 %

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Example 3: There are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. What is the
probability that a blue marble gets picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)
Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)
So the probability = = 0.8
Probability Line
We can show probability on a Probability Line:

Probability is always between 0 and 1

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 Important Terminology in Probability

Experiment: a repeatable procedure with a set of possible results.

Example: Throwing dice
We can throw the dice again and again, so it is repeatable.
The set of possible results from any single throw is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Outcome: A possible result of an experiment.

Example: Getting a "6“

Equally Likely Outcome: All outcomes with equal probability.

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Sample Space:
A sample space is a collection or a set of possible outcomes of a random
experiment.
The sample space is represented using the symbol, “S”.
A sample space may contain a number of outcomes which depends on the
experiment. If it contains a finite number of outcomes, then it is known as discrete
or finite sample spaces.

Tossing a Coin
Example: If you toss 3 coins, “n” is taken as 3.
Therefore, the possible number of outcomes will be 23 = 8 outcomes
Sample space for tossing three coins is written as
Sample space S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

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Sample Point: just one of the possible outcomes.
Example: Throwing dice
There are 6 different sample points in the sample space.

Event: one or more outcomes of an experiment

Or
Event:The subset of possible outcomes of an experiment is called events.

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Example Events:
An event can be just one outcome:
 Getting a Tail when tossing a coin
 Rolling a "5"
An event can include more than one outcome:
 Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6)

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Mutually Exclusive Events:
The events are said to be mutually exclusive when they are not occurred simultaneously.
Among the events, if one event will remain present in a trial other events will not appear.
In other words, occurrence of one precludes the occurrence of all the others.
For example:
If a ball is white, it cannot be red.
If we take another events like dead and alive, it can be said that a person may be either
alive or dead at a point of time. But lie cannot be both alive and dead simultaneously.
If a coin is tossed cither the head will appear or tail will appear. But both cannot appear in
the same time. It refers that in tossing a coin the occurrence of head and tail comes under
mutually exclusive events.
Symbolically if ‘A’ and ‘B’ events are mutually exclusive then the probability of events may
be estimated cither in P(A) or P(B). In mutually exclusive events P(AB)=0
P (A or B) = P(A) + P (B) – P ( A and B).

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Equally Likely Events:
Events are said to be equally likely, when there is equal chance of occurring.
If one event is not occurred like other events then events are not considered
as equally likely. Or in other words events are said to be equally likely when
one event does not occur more often than the others.
Example:
If an unbiased coin or dice is thrown, each face may be expected to occur is
equal numbers in the long run. In other example, in a pack of playing cards
we expect each card to appear equally. If a coin or dice is biased then each
face is not expected to appear equally.

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 Types of Events

Simple Events:
If an event A has only one sample point in a sample space. In the simple events we
think about the probability of the happening or not-happening of the simple events.
Whenever we are tossing the coin we are considering the occurrence of the events of
head and tail. In another example, if in a bag there are 10 white balls and 6 red balls
and whenever we are trying to find out the probability of drawing a red ball, is included
in simple events.
Compound events:
But on the other hand when we consider the joint occurrence of two or more events, it
becomes compound events. Unlike simple events here more than one event are taken
into consideration.
For example:
If there are 10 white and 6 red balls in a bag and if successive draws of 3 balls are
made and when we are trying to find out the probability of 3 balls as the white balls.
This example states the fact that the events are considered in more than two eventual
cases.

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 Different Concept of Probability

1. Classical Probability:
The definition of probability has been given by a French
mathematician named “Laplace”. According to him probability is the
ratio of the number of favourable cases among the number of
equally likely cases.
Or in other words, the ratio suggested by classical approach is:
Probability =
P(A) =

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Demerits:
(1) Classical approach is only confined with the coins, dice, cards, etc.;
(2) This may not explain the actual result in certain cases;
(3) If the number of the equally likely cases is more, then it is difficult to
find out the values of the probability ratio, and
(4) If number of equally likely cases is 00, then this approach is
inadequate.

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2. Relative Frequency Theory of Probability:
If an experiment is repeated n times
and an event A is observed f times, then, according to the relative frequency
concept of probability,
P(A) =

EXAMPLE
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at a certain auto factory are
found to be lemons. Assuming that the lemons are manufactured randomly, what is
the probability that the next car manufactured at this auto factory is a lemon?

Solution
Let n denote the total number of cars in the sample and f the number of
lemons in n.

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Then,
n = 500 and f = 10
Using the relative frequency concept of probability, we obtain
P ( next car is a lemon ) = = = = 0.02
This probability is actually the relative frequency of lemons in 500 cars.
Table below lists the frequency and relative frequency distributions for this example.

Frequency & Relative Frequency Distribution for the Sample of Cars

Car f Relative Frequency

Good 490 490/500 = 0.98
Lemon 10 10/500 = 0.02
Total 500 1.00

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P ( next car is a lemon ) = 0.02
P ( next car is a good car ) = 0.98
Note that relative frequencies are not exact probabilities but are
approximate probabilities unless they are based on a census. However,
if the experiment is repeated again and again, this approximate probability of
an outcome obtained from the relative frequency will approach the actual
probability of that outcome. This is called the Law of Large Numbers.

Definition
Law of Large Numbers: If an experiment is repeated again and again, the
probability of an event obtained from the relative frequency approaches the
actual or theoretical probability

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Demerits:
1. This approach is not at all an authentic and scientific approach.
2. This approach of probability is an undefined concept.
3. This type of probability approach though applied in business and economics
area still then it is not a reliable one.

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3. The Axiomatic Definition of Probability:
Let S be a sample space with a sample point E1, E2, E3,……En. To each
sample point we assign a real number denoted by the symbol P(E i) called
the probability of Ei , that must satisfy the following basic axioms.
Axiom 1
The probability of an event Ei lies between 0 and 1 (inclusive).
0 1
Axiom 2
The sum of probabilities must be equal to 1.
∑ P (Ei) = 1

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Axiom 3
The probability of sure event must be equal to 1.
P (S) = 1
Axiom 4
The axiom says if two events are mutually exclusive (i.e. the two
events can’t both occur at the same time)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

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 Subjective Probability

Definition
Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an event based on
subjective judgment, experience, information, and belief.

Subjective probability is assigned arbitrarily. It is usually influenced by

the biases, preferences, and experience of the person assigning the
probability.

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 Probability Rules

The Addition Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ( mutually exclusive events )
The Complement Rule: P(not A) = 1 - P(A)
The Multiplication Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) or P(B) * P(A|B)
If A and B are independent events, we can reduce the formula to
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B).

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 Independent and Dependent Events

1. Independent Events
Two or more events are said to be independent when the occurrence of one trial
does not affect the other. It indicates the fact that if trial made one by one, one trial
is not affected by the other trial. And also one trial never describes anything about
the other trials. Symbolically, this is written:
P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)
Example:
The events in tossing a coin are independent events. If a coin is tossed one by
one, then one trial is not affected by the other. In a trial the head or tail may conic
which never describes anything what event will come in second trial. So the
second trial is completely independent to that of the first trial.

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2. Dependent Events
Dependent events are those in which the occurrence and non-occurrence of
one event in a trial may affect the occurrence of the other trials. Here the
events are mutually dependent on each other.
Example:
If a card is drawn from a pack of playing cards and is not replaced, then in
2nd trial probability will be altered.

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 Permutation

A permutation is an arrangement or ordering of a number of distinct objects.

Permutations are also called arrangements.

The order is important and repetition is not allowed.

For example, the words 'top' and 'pot' represent two different permutations (or
arrangements) of the same three letters.
Example: You want to visit the homes of three friends Aneela ("a"), Bushra ("b")
and Chand ("c"), but haven't decided in what order. What choices do you have?
Answer: {a,b,c} {a,c,b} {b,a,c} {b,c,a} {c,a,b} {c,b,a}
So, we should really call this a "Permutation Lock"!
There are basically two types of permutation:
 Repetition is Allowed: such as the lock above. It could be "333".
No Repetition: for example the first three people in a running race. You can't
be first and second.

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1. Permutations with Repetition
For example: choosing 3 of those things, the permutations are:
n×n×n
(n multiplied 3 times)
More generally: choosing r of something that has n different types, the permutations are:
n × n × ... (r times)
n × n × ... (r times) = nr
Example: in the lock above, there are 10 numbers to choose from (0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) and we
choose 3 of them:
10 × 10 × ... (3 times) = 103 = 1,000 permutations

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2.Permutations without Repetition
In this case, we have to reduce the number of available choices each time.
Example: what order could 16 pool balls be in?
After choosing, say, number "14" we can't choose it again.
So, our first choice has 16 possibilites, and our next choice has 15 possibilities,
then 14, 13, 12, 11, ... etc. And the total permutations are:
16 × 15 × 14 × 13 × ... = 20,922,789,888,000
But maybe we don't want to choose them all, just 3 of them, and that is then:
16 × 15 × 14 = 3,360
In other words, there are 3,360 different ways that 3 pool balls could be arranged
out of 16 balls.

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The factorial function (symbol: !) just means to multiply a series of descending
natural numbers. Examples:
4! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
7! = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5,040
The formula is written:

P(n,r) = nPr =
Example: How many ways can first and second place be awarded to 10 people?

10! 10! 3,628,800

P (10,2) = = = = 90
(10-2)! 8! 40,320
(which is just the same as: 10 × 9 = 90)

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 Combination
A combination is a mathematical technique that determines the number of
possible arrangements in a collection of items where the order of the
selection does not matter.
When the order does not matter, such as in a fruit salad, it is a
Combination.

There are also two types of combinations

 Repetition is Allowed: such as coins in your pocket (5,5,5,10,10)
 No Repetition: such as lottery numbers (2,14,15,27,30,33)
Formula for Combination

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Example: Pool Balls (without order)
So, our pool ball example (now without order) is:
16
C3 = =
16
C3 =
16
C3 = 560

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