DISCRETE PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION
MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS
OBJECTIVES
• Determine probabilities from cumulative functions and cumulative
distribution functions from probability mass functions.
• Calculate means and variances for discrete random variables.
• Understand the assumptions for each of the discrete probability distributions
presented.
• Select an appropriate discrete probability distribution to calculate
probabilities in specific applications.
• Calculate probabilities, determine means and variances for each of the
discrete probability distributions presented
RANDOM VARIABLES
• Variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values
• Random variable assigns a numerical values to each outcome of a chance
event
• It is always represented by capital letters
RANDOM VARIABLES
Example #1:
□ The results of tossing the coin thrice.

Let X be a random variable representing the number of heads {0,1,2,3}

Results for tossing a coin thrice:

{HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

X (number of head/s) 0 1 2 3
OUTCOMES TTT HTT, THT, TTH HHT, HTH, THH HHH
RANDOM VARIABLES
Example #2:
□ The results of rolling a dice once.

Let X be a random variable representing the results of dice {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Results for tossing a die once:

{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

X (numbers on dice) 1 2 3 4 5 6
OUTCOMES 1 2 3 4 5 6
DISCRETE VARIABLE
• A variable of having a finite number of possible values or an infinite number
of values that can be counted.
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
• Discrete random variables can take on either a finite or at most a countably
infinite set of discrete values.
• The outcome can assume only a specific number of outcomes.
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
Example #1:
□ The results of tossing the coin thrice.

Let X be a discrete random variable representing the number of tails {0,1,2,3}

Results for tossing a coin thrice:

{HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

X (number of tail/s) 0 1 2 3
OUTCOMES HHH HHT, HTH, THH HTT, THT, TTH TTT
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
Example #2:
□ The results of rolling a dice once.

Let X be a discrete random variable representing the even or odd results in

rolling a dice once, 0 for even and 1 for odd.

Results for tossing a die once:

{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
X (0 = even; 1 = odd) 0 1
OUTCOMES 2, 4, 6 1, 3, 5
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
• Probability distribution of a random variable is the lists of all values of random
variables (X) and their probabilities {P(X)}.
• It can be represented by:
·Table
·Graph
·Formula

• Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution is 1.
·Every probability is a number between 0 and 1.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ Construct a probability distribution for tossing the coin thrice.

Let X be a random variable representing the number of heads {0,1,2,3}

Results for tossing a coin thrice:

{HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
X (number of head/s) 0 1 2 3
OUTCOMES TTT HTT, THT, TTH HHT, HTH, THH HHH

X (number of head/s) 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ Construct a probability distribution for tossing the coin thrice.
X (number of head/s) 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
•

X (number of head/s) 0 1 2 3
P(X) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single dice.

Let X be a random variable representing the results of dice {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Results for tossing a die once:

{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
X (numbers on dice) 1 2 3 4 5 6
OUTCOMES 1 2 3 4 5 6

X (numbers on dice) 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single dice.
X (numbers on dice) 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single dice.
X (numbers on dice) 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
• Consist of the values a discrete random variable (X) can assume and the
corresponding probabilities {P(X)} of the values:
• It can be represented by:
·Table
·Graph
·Formula

• Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution is 1.
·Every probability is a number between 0 and 1.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are
defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, construct
the discrete probability distribution for the number of defectives.

Let X be a discrete random variable representing the number of defective/s {0,1,2}

q = number of failures in population

q = 17 (17 laptop that are not defective)
N = total number of population
N= 20 (20 similar laptop computers) n = total number of sample space
n = 2 (random purchase of 2)
p = number of successes in population
p = 3 (3 are defective out of 20 r = number of successes in sample
laptop) r=X
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are
defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, construct
the discrete probability distribution for the number of defectives.

X (number of defective/s) 0 1 2
P(X) 68/95 51/190 3/190
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are
defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, construct
the discrete probability distribution for the number of defectives.
X (number of defective/s) 0 1 2
P(X) 68/95 51/190 3/190
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of which 5
are defective. Find the discrete probability distribution for the number of defectives.

Let X be a discrete random variable representing the number of defective/s {0,1,2,3}

q = number of failures in population

q = 10 (10 bulbs that are not defective)
N = total number of population
N= 15 (15 bulbs) n = total number of sample space
n = 3 (3 bulbs are chosen)
p = number of successes in population
p = 5 (5 are defective out of 15 bulbs) r = number of successes in sample
r=X
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of which 5
are defective. Find the discrete probability distribution for the number of defectives.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of which 5
are defective. Find the discrete probability distribution for the number of defectives.
X (number of defective/s) 0 1 2 3
P(X) 24/91 45/91 20/91 2/91
EXPECTED VALUE
• The expected value of a random variable is the weighted average of all
possible values that this random variable can take on.
• Also called as mean, mathematical expectation, expectation, first
moment
• It is the sum of the product of the random variable to its probability.
• It is represented by the formula:
EXPECTED VALUE
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that
are defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers,
find the expected value of the probability distribution.
X (number of defective/s) 0 1 2
P(X) 68/95 51/190 3/190
EXPECTED VALUE
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that
are defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers,
find the expected value of the probability distribution.
EXPECTED VALUE
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of
which 5 are defective. Find the expected value of the probability distribution
for the number of defectives.
X (number of defective/s) 0 1 2 3
P(X) 24/91 45/91 20/91 2/91
EXPECTED VALUE
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of
which 5 are defective. Find the expected value of the probability distribution
for the number of defectives.
EXPECTED VALUE
Example #3:
□ A financial analyst has analyzed a new company and estimated the following
information about it:
□ The current value of the company is $1.1 million.
□ There is a 0.8 probability that the company will be worth $0.9 million in a year.
□ There is a 0.15 probability that the company will be worth $1.3 million in a year.
□ There is a 0.05 probability that the company will be worth $2.0 million in a year.
□ If the investment decision is based on the expected value of the company in
one year, what should be done? Should you sell your shares or buy more?
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
• Variance and Standard Deviation measures or describes how far a set of
assumed values of random variables is “spread out”.
• Small variance or standard deviation means that the assumed values or data
points tend to be very close to the mean.
• Higher variance or standard deviation means that the assumed values or data
points are spread out from the mean.
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are defective.
If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the variance and
standard deviation of the probability distribution for the number of defectives.
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are defective.
If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the variance and
standard deviation of the probability distribution for the number of defectives.
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of which 5
are defective. Find the variance and standard deviation of the probability distribution for
the number of defectives.
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of
which 5 are defective. Find the probability distribution for the number of
defectives.
CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
•
CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Example #1:
□ A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that
are defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers,
find the probability of having at most 1 defective.
CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Example #2:
□ Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement from 15 bulbs of
which 5 are defective. Find the probability of having at most 2 defectives.
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT
• A binomial experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following
properties:
• The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of these outcomes a
success and the other, a failure.
• The probability in each trial is constant.
• The probability of success, denoted by p, is the same on every trial.
• The probability of failure, denoted by q, is the same on every trial.
• The trials are independent; that is, the outcome on one trial does not affect the outcome
on other trials.
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
•
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• A binomial random variable is the
number of successes “r” in “n” repeated
trials of a binomial experiment.
• The probability distribution of a binomial
random variable is called BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION.
• It can be represented by:
·Table
·Graph
·Formula
• Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a binomial
distribution is 1.
·Every probability is a number between 0
and 1.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ Construct a binomial distribution in rolling a pair of dice 2 times and getting a sum of 7.
Compute also the mean, variance and standard deviation.
Let X be a binomial random variable representing the number of successes in getting a sum
of 7 {0,1,2}

n = total number of trials p = probability of success (sum of 7)

n=2 (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)
p = 6/36 = 1/6
r = number of success
r=X q = probability of failure
q=1–p
q = 1 – 1/6
q = 5/6
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ Construct a binomial distribution in rolling a pair of dice 2 times and getting a sum of 7.
Compute also the mean, variance and standard deviation.

X (number of successes in getting a sum of 7) 0 1 2

P(X) 0.69444 0.27778 0.02778
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ Construct a binomial distribution in rolling a pair of dice 2 times and getting a sum of 7.
Compute also the mean, variance and standard deviation.
X (number of successes in getting a sum of 7) 0 1 2
P(X) 0.69444 0.27778 0.02778
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #1:
□ Construct a binomial distribution in rolling a pair of dice 2 times and getting a sum of 7.
Compute also the mean, variance and standard deviation.
X (number of successes in getting a sum of 7) 0 1 2
P(X) 0.69444 0.27778 0.02778
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a binomial distribution of showing heads in tossing the coin twice. Solve also
the mean, variance and standard deviation.
Let X be a binomial random variable of number of successes in showing heads {0,1,2}.

p = probability of success
p = 1/2
n = total number of trials
q = probability of failure
n=2
q=1–p
r = number of success q = 1 – 1/2
r=X q = 1/2
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a binomial distribution of showing heads in tossing the coin twice. Solve also
the mean, variance and standard deviation.

X (number of successes in showing heads) 0 1 2

P(X) 0.25 0.50 0.25
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a binomial distribution of showing heads in tossing the coin twice. Solve also
the mean, variance and standard deviation.
X (number of successes in showing heads 0 1 2
P(X) 0.25 0.50 0.25
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Example #2:
□ Construct a binomial distribution of showing heads in tossing the coin twice. Solve also
the mean, variance and standard deviation.
X (number of successes in showing heads) 0 1 2
P(X) 0.25 0.50 0.25
CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
• CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY refers to the probability that the binomial
random variable falls within a specified range (e.g., is greater than or equal to a stated
lower limit and less than or equal to a stated upper limit).
CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
Example #1:
□ What is the probability of obtaining 50 or fewer heads in 100 tosses of a coin?

n = no. of trials
n = 100
r = [0,50] (at
most 50)
p = probability of success
p=½
q = probability of failure
q=1–p=1–½
q=½
CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
Example #2:
□ The probability that a student is accepted to a prestigious college is 0.3. If 5 students
from the same school apply, what is the probability that at most 3 are accepted?
n = no. of trials
n=5
r = {0, 1, 2, 3} (at most 3)
p = probability of success
p = 0.3
q = probability of failure
q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.3
q = 0.7
POISSON PROBABILITY
• In Poisson Probability, it talks about the probability of how likely an event to happen for
a specific period of time
• The Poisson Probability that exactly “r” successes occur in a Poisson experiment, when
the mean number of successes is μ is given by the formula:

Where:
• μ = average number of successes
• μ = variance of Poisson distribution
• μ = mean of the distribution
• r = exact number of successes
• e = Euler’s number = 2.71828
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• A POISSON RANDOM VARIABLE is the number of successes that result from a Poisson
experiment.
• The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable is called a POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
• It can be represented by:
·Table
·Graph
·Formula

• Note:
·The sum of all probabilities in a poisson distribution is 1.
·Every probability is a number between 0 and 1.
CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY
• A CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY refers to the probability that the
Poisson random variable is greater than some specified lower limit and less
than some specified upper limit.
CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY
Example #1:
□ Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the probability
that tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next 1-day safari?

μ = average number of success

μ = 5(average no. of lions seen)

r=X
r = {0, 1, 2, 3} (fewer than 4 or
less than 4)
CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY
Example #2:
□ Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the probability
that tourists will see at most four lions on the next 1-day safari?

μ = average number of success

μ = 5(average no. of lions seen)

r=X
r = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4} (at most 4)
CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY
Example #3:
□ Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the probability
that tourists will see at least four lions on the next 1-day safari?

μ = average number of success

μ = 5(average no. of lions seen)

r=X
r = [0,+∞) (at least 4)