StatsGROUP 1
StatsGROUP 1
Solution
We consider the 120 tosses of the coin as a sample from the infinite population of all possible tosses of the coin. In this population the probability of heads is and the
probability of tails is
(a) We require the probability that the number of heads in 120 tosses will be between 40% of 120, or 48, and 60% of 120, or 72, using the normal approximation to the
binomial distribution. Since the number of heads is a discrete variable, we ask for the probability that the number of heads lies between 47.5 and 72.5
and 𝛔
Required probability :
P
CONT.
b)
P
ESTIMATION THEORY
For n observations X1,……………, Xn made from this population, find the moment
and maximum likelihood estimate of k.
TEST OF HYPOTHESIS AND
SIGNIFICANCE
25
(1) If the z score observed is greater than 1.645, the results are significant at the 0.05 level and the individual
(2) If the z score is less than 1.645, the results are due to chance, i.e., not significant at the 0.05 level.
Since 32 in standard units is (32 - 25) /3.54 = 1.98, which is greater than 1.645, decision (1) holds, i.e., we conclude at the 0.05 level that the
individual has powers of ESP.
Note that we should really apply a continuity correction, since 32 on a continuous scale is between 31.5 and 32.5. However, 31.5 has a standard
score of (31.5 - 25) /3.54 = 1.84, and so the same conclusion is reached.
(b) If the level of significance is 0.01, then the area between 0 and z1 is 0.4900, and z1 = 2.33. Since 32 (or 31.5) in standard units is 1.98 (or
1.84), which is less than 2.33, we conclude that the results are not significant at the 0.01 level.
Some statisticians adopt the terminology that results significant at the 0.01 level are highly significant, results significant at the 0.05 level but not
at the 0.01 level are probably significant, while results significant at levels larger than 0.05 are not significant.
According to this terminology, we would conclude that the above experimental results are probably significant, so that further investigations of
the phenomena are probably warranted.
(c) The P value of the test is the probability that the colors of 32 or more cards would, in a random selection, be identified correctly. The standard
score of 32, taking into account the continuity correction is z = 1.84. Therefore the P value is P( ) = 0.032. The statistician could say that on the
basis of the experiment, the chances of being wrong in concluding that the individual has powers of ESP are about 3 in 100.
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE