CHAPTER 4:

PROBABILITY Click to edit Master subtitle style

11

EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE

n

Simple and Compound Events

22

EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE

Definition An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one and only one of many observations. These observations are called that outcomes of the experiment. The collection of all outcomes for an experiment is called a sample space .
33

Table 4.1
Experiment
Toss a coin once Roll a die once Toss a coin twice Play lottery Take a test Select a student

Examples of Experiments, Outcomes, and Sample Spaces

Outcomes
Head, Tail 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 HH, HT, TH, TT Win, Lose Pass, Fail Male, Female

Sample Space
S = {Head, Tail} S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} S = {Win, Lose} S = {Pass, Fail} S = {Male, Female}

44

Example 4-1
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of tossing a coin once.

55

Figure 4.1

(a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram for one toss of a coin.

66

Example 4-2
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of tossing a coin twice.

77

Figure 4.2 a

Venn diagram for two tosses of a coin.

88

Figure 4.2 b

Tree diagram for two tosses of coin.

99

Example 4-3
Suppose we randomly select two persons from the members of a club and observe whether the person selected each time is a man or a woman. Write all the outcomes for this experiment. Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for this experiment.

1010

Figure 4.3 a
persons.

Venn diagram for selecting two

1111

Figure 4.3 b
persons.

Tree diagram for selecting two

1212

Simple and Compound Events

Definition An event is a collection of one or more of the outcomes of an experiment.

1313

Simple and Compound Events cont.

Definition An event that includes one and only one of the (final) outcomes for an experiment is called a simple event and is denoted by Ei.

1414

Example 4-4
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from the members of a club and observing whether the person selected each time is a man or a woman. Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, WW) for this experiment is a simple event. These four events can be denoted by E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus,
E1 = (MM ), E2 = (MW ), E3 = (WM ), and E4 = (WW )
1515

Simple and Compound Events

Definition A compound event is a collection of more than one outcome for an experiment.

1616

Example 4-5
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from the members of a club and observing whether the person selected each time is a man or a woman. Let A be the event that at most one man is selected. Event A will occur if either no man or one man is selected. Hence, the event A is given by A = {MW, WM, WW} Because event A contains more than one outcome, it is a compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure 4.4 gives a graphic presentation of compound event A.
1717

Figure 4.4

Venn diagram for event A.

1818

Example 4-6
In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic engineering and others are against it. Two persons are selected at random from this group and asked whether they are in favor of or against genetic engineering. How many distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a Venn diagram and a tree diagram for this experiment. List all the outcomes included in each of the following events and mention whether they are simple or compound events. (a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering. (b) At most one person is against genetic engineering. (c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.
1919

Solution 4-6
Let
n n n n

n n

F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering A = a person is against genetic engineering FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering FA = the first person is in favor and the second is against AF = the first is against and the second is in favor AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

2020

Figure 4.5 a

Venn diagram.

2121

Figure 4.5 b

Tree diagram.

2222

Solution 4-6
Both persons are in favor of genetic engineering = { FF } It is a simple event. b) At most one person is against genetic engineering = { FF, FA, AF } It is a compound event. c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering = { FA, AF } It is a compound event.
a)

2323

CALCULATING PROBABILITY
n n

Two Properties of probability Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

n n n

Classical Probability Relative Frequency Concept of Probability Subjective Probability

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CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur.

2525

Two Properties of Probability

n

First Property of Probability

n n

0 P (Ei) 1 0 P (A) 1

Second Property of Probability

n

P (Ei) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) + = 1

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Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

Classical Probability Definition Two or more outcomes (or events) that have the same probability of occurrence are said to be equally likely outcomes (or events).
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Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability

2828

Example 4-7
Find the probability of obtaining a head and the probability of obtaining a tail for one toss of a coin.

2929

Solution 4-7

Similarly,

3030

Example 4-8
Find the probability of obtaining an even number in one roll of a die.

3131

Solution 4-8

3232

Example 4-9
In a group of 500 women, 80 have played golf at lest once. Suppose one of these 500 women is randomly selected. What is the probability that she has played golf at least once?

3333

Solution 4-9

3434

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability cont.

Relative Concept of Probability Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation of Probability If an experiment is repeated n times and an event A is observed f times, then, according to the relative frequency concept of probability:

3535

Example 4-10
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at a certain auto factory are found to be lemons. Assuming that the lemons are manufactured randomly, what is the probability that the next car manufactured at this auto factory is a lemon?
3636

Solution 4-10
Let n denotes the total number of cars in the sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10

Using the relative frequency concept of probability, we obtain

3737

Table 4.2

Frequency and Relative Frequency Distributions for the Sample of Cars

Car Good Lemon

f 490 10 n = 500

Relative frequency 490/500 = .98 10/500 = .02 Sum = 1.00

3838

*Take a note
n

Relative frequencies are not exact probabilities but are approximate probabilities unless they are based on census. If the experiment is repeated again and again, this aproximate prob. of an outcome obtained from the relative frequency approach the actual probability of that outcome.
3939

Law of Large Numbers

Definition Law of Large Numbers If an experiment is repeated again and again, the probability of an event obtained from the relative frequency approaches the actual or theoretical probability. Example: You want to determine the probability that a randomly selected student 4040 from UKM owns a car.

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

Subjective Probability Definition Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an event based on subjective judgment, experience, information and belief.
4141

Exercise
n

The names of four directors of a company will be placed in a hat and a 2-member delegation will be selected at random to represent the company at an international meeting. Let A, B, C and D denote the directors of the company. What is the probability that (a) A is selected? (b) A or B is selected? (c) A
is not selected?
n

4242

COUNTING RULE
Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes If an experiment consists of three steps and if the first step can result in m outcomes, the second step in n outcomes, and the third in k outcomes, then
Total outcomes for the experiment = m n k
4343

Example 4-12
Suppose we toss a coin three times. This experiment has three steps: the first toss, the second toss and the third toss. Each step has two outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,
Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

The eight outcomes for this experiment are HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT
4444

Example 4-13
A prospective car buyer can choose between a fixed and a variable interest rate and can also choose a payment period of 36 months, 48 months, or 60 months. How many total outcomes are possible?

4545

Solution 4-13
Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

4646

Example 4-14
A National Football League team will play 16 games during a regular season. Each game can result in one of three outcomes: a win, a lose, or a tie. The total possible outcomes for 16 games are calculated as follows: Total outcomes = 333333333333 3333 = 316 = 43,046,721 One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is all 16 wins.
4747

Exercise
n

A student has 5 pairs of shirts and 3 pairs of trousers. How many total styles are possible?

4848

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

Definition Marginal probability is the probability of a single event without consideration of any other event. Marginal probability is also called simple probability .

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MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked whether they are in favor of or against paying high salaries to CEOs of U.S. companies. Table 4.3 gives a two way classification of the responses of these 100 employees.

5050

Table 4.3

Responses

Two-Way Classification of Employee

Male Female

In Favor 15 4

Against 45 36

5151

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

Table 4.4
Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses with Totals

Male Female Total

In Favor 15 4 19

Against 45 36 81

Total 60 40 100

5252

Table 4.5

Listing the Marginal Probabilities

In Favor Against Total (A ) (B ) Male (M ) Female (F ) Total 15 4 19

= .19

45 36 81
= .81

60 40 100

P (M ) = 60/100 = .60 P (F ) = 40/100 = .40

P (A ) = 19/100 P (B ) = 81/100

5353

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES cont.

P ( in favor | male)
Read as given

The event whose probability is to be determined

This event has already occurred

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MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES cont.

Definition Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability A given B is written as P(A|B) and read as the probability of A given that B has already occurred.
5555

Example 4-15
Compute the conditional probability P ( in favor | male) for the data on 100 employees given in Table 4.4.

5656

Solution 4-15
In Favor 15
Males who are in favor

Male

Against 45

Total 60
Total number of males

5757

Figure 4.6
Tree Diagram.
This event has already occurred

We are to find the probability of this event

Required probability

5858

Example 4-16
For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the conditional probability that a randomly selected employee is a female given that this employee is in favor of paying high salaries to CEOs.

5959

Solution 4-16
In Favor 15 4 19
Females who are in favor Total number of employees who are in favor

Number of females who are in favor P (female | in favor) = Total number of employees who are in favor 4 = = .2105 19
6060

Figure 4.7
This event has already occurred

Tree diagram.

We are to find the probability of this event

Required probability

6161

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Definition Events that cannot occur together are said to be mutually exclusive events .

6262

Example 4-17
Consider the following events for one roll of a die:
A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6} B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5} C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}

Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are events A and C mutually exclusive?
6363

Solution 4-17
Figure 4.8
Mutually exclusive events A and B.

6464

Solution 4-17
Figure 4.9
Mutually nonexclusive events A and C.

6565

Example 4-18
Consider the following two events for a randomly selected adult:
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at least once N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet

Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

6666

Solution 4-18
Figure 4.10
Mutually exclusive events Y and N.

6767

INDEPENDENT VERSUS DEPENDENT EVENTS

Definition Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. In other words, A and B are independent events if either P (A | B ) = P (A ) or P (B | A ) = P (B )
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Example 4-19
Refer to the information on 100 employees given in Table 4.4. Are events female (F ) and in favor (A ) independent?

6969

Solution 4-19
Events F and A will be independent if P (F | A ) = P ( F ) Otherwise they will be dependent. From the information given in Table 4.4 P (F ) = 40/100 = .40 P (F | A ) = 4/19 = .2105 Because these two probabilities are not equal, the two events are dependent.
7070

Example 4-20
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were manufactured on two machines. Of them, 60 were manufactured on Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15 are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective. Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is defective, and let A be the event that a randomly selected CD was manufactured on Machine I. Are events D and A independent?
7171

Solution 4-20
From the given information, P (D ) = 15/100 = .15 P (D | A ) = 9/60 = .15 Hence, P (D ) = P (D | A ) Consequently, the two events are independent.
7272

Table 4.6

Two-Way Classification Table

Defective (D ) Machine I (A ) Machine II (B ) Total 9 6 15

Good (G ) 51 34 85

Total 60 40 100

7373

Two Important Observations

n

Two events are either mutually exclusive or independent.

n

Mutually exclusive events are always dependent. Independent events are never mutually exclusive.

Dependents events may or may not be mutually exclusive.

7474

COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Definition The complement of event A , denoted by and is read as A bar or A complement, is the event that includes all the outcomes for an experiment that are not in A.

7575

Figure 4.11
events.

Venn diagram of two complementary

7676

Example 4-21
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited by the IRS at least once. If one taxpayer is randomly selected from this group, what are the two complementary events for this experiment, and what are their probabilities?

7777

Solution
n

The complementary events for this experiment are

n n

A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the IRS at least once = the selected taxpayer has never been audited by the IRS

The probabilities of the complementary events are: P (A) = 400/2000 = .20

P () = 1600/2000 = .80
7878

Figure 4.12

Venn diagram.

7979

Example 4-22
In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in favor of stricter gun control laws, 1200 are against such laws, and 300 have no opinion. One adult is randomly selected from this group. Let A be the event that this adult is in favor of stricter gun control laws. What is the complementary event of A? What are the probabilities of the two events?
8080

Solution 4-22
n

The two complementary events are

n n

A = the selected adult is in favor of stricter gun control laws = the selected adult either is against such laws or has no opinion

The probabilities of the complementary events are: P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70

P () = 1500/5000 = .30
8181

Figure 4.13

Venn diagram.

8282

INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE MULTIPLICATION RULE

n n

Intersection of Events Multiplication Rule

8383

Intersection of Events
Definition Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The intersection of A and B represents the collection of all outcomes that are common to both A and B.

8484

Figure 4.14
A

Intersection of events A and B.

B A and B

Intersection of A and B 8585

Multiplication Rule
Definition The probability of the intersection of two events is called their joint probability . It is written as P (A and B ) or P (A B )

8686

INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE MULTIPLICATION RULE

Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability The probability of the intersection of two events A and B is P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B |A )

8787

Example 4-23
Table 4.7 gives the classification of all employees of a company given by gender and college degree.

8888

Table 4.7

Classification of Employees by Gender and Education

College Graduate (G ) Male (M ) Female (F ) Total 7 4 11

Not a College Graduate (N ) 20 9 29

Total 27 13 40

8989

Example 4-23
If one of these employees is selected at random for membership on the employee management committee, what is the probability that this employee is a female and a college graduate?

9090

Solution 4-23
Calculate the intersection of event F and G

P (F and G ) = P (F )P (G |F ) P (F ) = 13/40 P (G |F ) = 4/13 P (F and G ) = (13/40)(4/13) = .100

9191

Figure 4.15
Females

Intersection of events F and G.

College graduates

Females and college graduates 9292

Figure 4.16

Tree diagram for joint probabilities.

9393

Example 4-24
A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are defective. If 2 DVDs are selected at random (without replacement) from this box, what is the probability that both are defective?

9494

Solution 4-24
Let us define the following events for this experiment:

G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective P (D1 and D2) = P (D1 )P (D2 |D1 ) P (D1) = 4/20 P (D2 |D1) = 3/19 P (D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316

The probability to be calculated is

9595

Figure 4.17

Selecting two DVDs.

9696

Multiplication Rule cont.

Calculating Conditional Probability If A and B are two events, then,

given that P (A ) 0 and P (B ) 0.

9797

Example 4-25
The probability that a randomly selected student from a college is a senior is .20, and the joint probability that the student is a computer science major and a senior is .03. Find the conditional probability that a student selected at random is a computer science major given that he/she is a senior.
9898

Solution 4-25
n

Let us define the following two events:

n n

A = the student selected is a senior B = the student selected is a computer science major

From the given information, P (A) = .20 and P (A and B) = .03 Hence, P (B | A ) = .03/.20 = .15
9999

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

Multiplication Rule to Calculate the Probability of Independent Events The probability of the intersection of two independent events A and B is P (A and B ) = P (A ).P (B )

100100

Example 4-26
An office building has two fire detectors. The probability is .02 that any fire detector of this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find the probability that both of these fire detectors will fail to go off in case of a fire.

101101

Solution 4-26
Let
A = the first fire detector fails to go off during a fire B = the second fire detector fails to go off during a fire

Then, the joint probability of A and B is P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ) = (. 02)(.02) = .0004

102102

Example 4-27
The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is .20. Suppose this drug is administered to three patients.
a) Find the probability that all three of them are

allergic to it. b) Find the probability that at least one of the them is not allergic to it.
103103

Solution
a)

Let A, B, and C denote the events the first, second and third patients, respectively, are allergic to penicillin. Hence,
P (A and B and C ) = P (A ) P (B ) P (C ) = (.20) (.20) (.20) = .008

104104

Solution
b)

G = all three patients are allergic

Let us define the following events:

H = at least one patient is not allergic

) P (G ) = P (A and B and C ) = .008 ) Therefore, using the complementary event

rule, we obtain ) P (H ) = 1 P (G ) = 1 - .008 = .992

105105

Figure 4.18

Tree diagram for joint probabilities.

106106

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events The joint probability of two mutually exclusive events is always zero. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then P (A and B ) = 0

107107

Example 4-28
Consider the following two events for an application filed by a person to obtain a car loan:
A = event that the loan application is approved R = event that the loan application is rejected

What is the joint probability of A and R?

108108

Solution 4-28
The two events A and R are mutually exclusive. Either the loan application will be approved or it will be rejected. Hence,

P (A and R ) = 0

109109

n n n n

Answers: a. 0.52 b. No, the intersection is not zero. c. No, P(A B) = 0.6753 P(A)

110110

UNION OF EVENTS AND THE ADDITION RULE

Definition Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The union of events A and B is the collection of all outcomes that belong to either A or B or to both A and B and is denoted by A or B
111111

Example 4-29
A senior citizen center has 300 members. Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95 are male and take at least one medicine on a permanent basis. Describe the union of the events male and take at least one medicine on a permanent basis.

112112

Solution 4-29
n

M = a senior citizen is a male

Let us define the following events:

F = a senior citizen is a female A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine
n

The union of the events male and take at least one medicine includes those senior citizens who are either male or take at least one medicine or both. The number of such senior citizen is 113113 140 + 210 95 = 255

Table 4.8

M F Total

A 95 115 210

B 45 45 90

Total 140 160 300

Counted twice

114114

Figure 4.19

Union of events M and A.

Shaded area gives the union of events M and A, and includes 255 senior citizen 115115

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

Addition Rule Addition Rule to Find the Probability of Union of Events The portability of the union of two events A and B is
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B) P (A and B )
116116

Example 4-30
A university president has proposed that all students must take a course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty members and students from this university were asked about their opinion on this issue. Table 4.9 gives a two-way classification of the responses of these faculty members and students. Find the probability that one person selected at random from these 300 persons is a faculty member or is in favor of this proposal.
117117

Table 4.9

Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Faculty Student Total 45 90 135

Oppose 15 110 125

Neutral 10 30 40

Total 70 230 300

118118

Solution 4-30
Let us define the following events:
A = the person selected is a faculty member B = the person selected is in favor of the proposal

From the information in the Table 4.9,

P (A ) = 70/300 = .2333 P (B ) = 135/300 = .4500 P (A and B) = P (A) P (B | A ) = (70/300)(45/70) = .1500

Using the addition rule, we have

P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A and B )
= .2333 + .4500 .1500 = .5333
119119

Example 4-31
A total of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are vegetarian, and 400 are female and vegetarian. What is the probability that a randomly selected person from this group is a male or vegetarian?

120120

Solution 4-31
Let us define the following events:
F = the randomly selected person is a female M = the randomly selected person is a male V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian N = the randomly selected person is a non-vegetarian.

121121

Table 4.10

Two-Way Classification Table

Vegetarian (V) Nonvegetarian (N) Female (F) Male (M) Total 400 200 600 1000 900 1900

Total 1400 1100 2500

122122

Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

Addition Rule to Find the Probability of the Union of Mutually Exclusive Events The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive events A and B is

P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B )
123123

Example 4-32
A university president has proposed that all students must take a course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty members and students from this university were asked about their opinion on this issue. The following table, reproduced from Table 4.9 in Example 4-30, gives a two-way classification of the responses of these faculty members and students.
124124

Table 4.9

Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Faculty Student Total 45 90 135

Oppose 15 110 125

Neutral 10 30 40

Total 70 230 300

125125

Example 4-32
What is the probability that a randomly selected person from these 300 faculty members and students is in favor of the proposal or is neutral?

126126

Figure 4.20
events.

Venn diagram of mutually exclusive

127127

Solution 4-32
Let us define the following events:
N = the person selected is neutral F = the person selected is in favor of the proposal

From the given information,

P (F ) = 135/300 = .4500 P (N ) = 40/300 = .1333

Hence,

P (F or N ) = P (F ) + P (N ) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833

128128

Example 4-33
Consider the experiment of rolling a die twice. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers obtained on two rolls is 5, 7, or 10.

129129

Table 4.11
1 First Roll of the Die 1 2 3 4 5 6 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

Two Rolls of a Die

Second Roll of the Die 2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2) 3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3) 4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4) 5 6 (1,5) (1,6) (2,5) (2,6) (3,5) (3,6) (4,5) (4,6) (5,5) (5,6) (6,5) (6,6)
130130

Solution 4-33
P (sum is 5 or 7 or 10) = P (sum is 5) + P (sum is 7) + P (sum is 10) = 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36 = 13/36 = .3611
131131

Example 4-34
The probability that a person is in favor of genetic engineering is .55 and that a person is against it is .45. Two persons are randomly selected, and it is observed whether they favor or oppose genetic engineering.
a) b)

Draw a tree diagram for this experiment Find the probability that at least one of the two persons favors genetic engineering.
132132

Solution 4-34
a) Let F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering

A = a person is against genetic engineering

The tree diagram in Figure 4.21 shows these four outcomes and their probabilities.

133133

Figure 4.21

Tree diagram.

134134

Solution
b)

P ( at least one person favors) = P (FF or FA or AF ) = P (FF ) + P (FA ) + P (AF ) = .3025 + .2475 + .2475 = .7975

135135