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CL 10 CH 15 Probability

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. It can be expressed as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes. There are two approaches to probability - experimental probability which is based on performing repeated experiments, and theoretical probability which uses logical reasoning to calculate probabilities. The probability of any event ranges between 0 and 1, with 0 being an impossible event and 1 being a certain event. The complement of an event includes all outcomes that are not part of the given event.

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76 views22 pages

CL 10 CH 15 Probability

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. It can be expressed as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes. There are two approaches to probability - experimental probability which is based on performing repeated experiments, and theoretical probability which uses logical reasoning to calculate probabilities. The probability of any event ranges between 0 and 1, with 0 being an impossible event and 1 being a certain event. The complement of an event includes all outcomes that are not part of the given event.

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manojk81844
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PROBABILI

TY
 Probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Events can’t be predicted
with certainty but can be expressed as to how likely it can occur using the idea of
probability.
Quick Revision of some basic concepts of Probability:
Experiment - An experiment is any activity that can be infinitely repeated or
any series of actions that have a well-defined set of possible outcomes.
Eg: Tossing a coin, Playing a match, Rolling a dice.

Outcome - It is the result of an experiment.


Eg: When a coin is tossed getting a head or tail.

Sample Space - An experiment can either have only one or more than one
possible outcomes which is also called the sample space.
Eg: Tossing a coin – {H,T}, Playing a match - {Win, Loose}, Rolling a dice –
{1,2,3,4,5,6}

Favourable Outcome - Outcome favourable to an event.


Eg: Experiment – Rolling a die Possible outcomes – 1,2,3,4,5,6
Event – Getting an even number Favourable Outcomes – 2,4,6
Event - It is a set of outcomes.
Eg: when we roll dice the probability of getting a number less than five is an
event.
Note: An Event can have a single outcome. Such event is called ‘an elementary
event’.
Eg: When a coin is tossed ‘getting a Head’ is an event which only one outcome.

Sum of Probabilities - The sum of the probabilities of all the elementary events of
an experiment is one.
Example: Take the coin-tossing experiment. P(Heads) + P(Tails )
= (1/2)+ (1/2) =1

Equally likely outcomes - The outcomes of an experiment are called ’equally


likely’ if all of them have the same chance of occurring.
Eg: When a die is rolled all the six outcomes are equally likely.
Experimental Probability
Experimental probability can be applied to any event associated with an experiment
that is repeated a large number of times. It is also known as Empirical probability.

A trial is when the experiment is performed once.

Experimental or empirical probability denoted as P(E)

P(E) = Number of trials where the event occurred/Total Number of Trials


Helicopter crashing into the An earth satellite
lake launching to see its
failure
A THEORETICAL
APPROACH
In theoretical approach of
probability, instead of performing
experiments, we use our knowledge
about a situation, some logical
reasoning, and/or known formula to
calculate the probability of an event
happening.
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT A:

•P(A) =
IMPOSSIBLE EVENT
AN EVENT THAT HAS NO CHANCE OF OCCURRING IS CALLED
AN IMPOSSIBLE EVENT, I.E. P(E) = 0.
E.G: PROBABILITY OF GETTING A 7 ON A ROLL OF A DIE IS 0. AS 7
CAN NEVER BE AN OUTCOME OF THIS TRIAL.

Sure event
An event that has a 100% probability of occurrence is called a sure event. The
probability of occurrence of a sure event is one.
E.g: What is the probability that a number obtained after throwing a die is less
than 7?
So, P(E) = P(Getting a number less than 7) = 6/6= 1
Range of Probability of an event
The range of probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 inclusive of 0 and 1,
i.e. 0≤P(E)≤1.
Complement of an Event: All outcomes that are NOT the outcomes
of given event is calles complement of an event. So the Complement
of an event is all the other outcomes (not the ones we want). And
together the Event and its Complement make all possible outcomes.
If E denotes event, then E’ denotes complement of an event E.
Sum of probabilities of an event and its complement is equal to 1.
Eg. If P(E) = 0.65 then P(E’) = 1 – 0.65 =0.35
In a pack of cards there are 52 cards in two colours – 26 RED & 26 BLACK.
These 52 cards are divided into 4 suits – 1.clubs & 2.spade(in black colour)
3.Diamond & 4.heart(in red colour)
Each suit is has 13 cards as follows-
1 ACE card, 3 FACE cards – KING, QUEEN, JACK and 9 NUMBERED cards –
2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
Four Suits are - ACE CARD
NUMBERED CARDS

CLUBS

SPADE
FACE CARDS
DIAMOND

HEART
Find the probability of getting 53 Sundays in leap year.

No of Possible outcomes = 7
E = Event = getting 53 Sundays in leap year
No of favorable outcomes = 2
P(E) =

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